FINISHED
Roma vs Genoa 2:0: result and odds
Roma vs Genoa finished 2:0. The AI models' pick was over 2.5 goals at 1.66, and it lost.
- Referee: Rosario Abisso
- Serie A, matchday 7 of 38
- +20°, clear
- Stadio Olimpico, Rome
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Over 2.5 goals
1.66AI models' pick · Two directions drew level; the one priced closer to the line was taken
Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
likely score
2:0 11% — this score came in2:1 10%1:0 9%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 9 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 5 days a Genoa win shortened from 8.12 to 6.04 — money is coming in on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Over 2.5: 1.66 → 1.92 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (over 2.5 goals) has drifted from 1.66 to 1.92: the market now rates it as less likely. Under 2.5 overtook Over 2.5 on 17 Oct: 2.19 → 1.91, against 1.66 → 1.92.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 · our bet | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.92+0.05 | 1.91−0.05 | |
| 1.87+0.03 | 1.96−0.02 | |
| 1.84+0.05 | 1.98−0.03 | |
| 1.79+0.01 | 2.01−0.01 | |
| 1.78+0.01 | 2.02−0.02 | |
| 1.77+0.05 | 2.04−0.06 | |
| 1.72+0.01 | 2.10−0.04 | |
| 1.71+0.01 | 2.14−0.01 | |
| We published over 2.5 goals at 1.66 | ||
| 1.70+0.01 | 2.15−0.01 | |
| 1.69+0.01 | 2.16−0.02 | |
| 1.68+0.02 | 2.18−0.01 | |
| 1.66opened | 2.19opened | |
How the match went
- 43'Matias Soule YC
- 50'Santiago Thomas Castro1:0
- 51'Johan Vásquez YC
- 63'on Lorenzo Pellegrini, off Rodrigo Mora
- 63'on Mario Hermoso, off Konstantinos Koulierakis
- 65'on Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira, off Stephan El Shaarawy
- 65'Leo Østigård YC
- 68'Emanuele Lulli2:0
- 76'Niccolò Pisilli YC
- 78'on Wesley Vinícius França Lima, off Emanuele Lulli
- 81'Mikael Ellertsson YC
- 83'on Robinho Junior, off Junior Messias
- 83'on Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho, off Morten Frendrup
- 88'on Daniele Ghilardi, off Devyne Rensch
- 88'on Alessandro Di Nunzio, off Niccolò Pisilli
| Roma | stat | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| 1.45 | expected goals (xG) | 0.49 |
| 15 | shots | 9 |
| 5 | on target | 1 |
| 66% | possession | 34% |
| 5 | corners | 3 |
| 10 | fouls | 7 |
| 1 | saves | 3 |
| 2 | yellow cards | 3 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Roma- 95P. Gollini6.8
- 3K. Koulierakis7.1
- 5E. Ndicka7.6
- 26L. Balerdi7.6
- 2D. Rensch6.6
- 61N. Pisilli6.6
- 15M. de Roon6.3
- 77E. Lulli7.5
- 86Rodrigo Mora6.5
- 18M. Soulé7.0
- 9S. Castro — highest feed rating in the match8.0
- 78Mandjou Camara
- 68A. Arena
- 70G. De Marzi
- 87D. Ghilardion 88'7.1
- 22Hermosoon 63'7.3
- 23G. Mancini
- 20N. Molina
- 7L. Pellegrinion 63'7.0
- 32D. Vásquez
- 43Wesleyon 78'6.8
- 63Alessandro Di Nunzio
- 72L. Paratici
Genoa- 1J. Bijlow5.8
- 22J. Vásquez6.2
- 5L. Østigård5.5
- 27A. Marcandalli6.6
- 31D. Puczka5.7
- 32M. Frendrup5.9
- 71S. Wiafe6.3
- 77M. Ellertsson5.9
- 92S. El Shaarawy6.5
- 10Junior Messias6.7
- 18M. Osmajić6.0
- 8T. Baldanzi
- 16C. Drameh
- 2M. Mitaj
- 20S. Sabelli
- 39D. Sommariva
- 99F. Stolz
- 25H. Traorè
- 85M. Vaz
- 9Vítinhaon 65'6.3
- 4Alexsandro Amorimon 83'6.1
- 21Nikita Solodchenkoon 83'6.4
- 14Lukas Klišys
- 34S. Otoa
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet lost. 6 more bet on Roma −1.5 — the bet won. The other 2 bet on a Roma win — the bet won.
- 8 of 16O 2.5our betodds 1.66ChatGPTClaude
Gemini
GrokQwenMiniMax
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultralost - 6 of 16H1 (−1.5)odds 2.08DeepSeekKimiDeepSeek Flash
GLMMistralXiaomi MiMowon - 2 of 161odds 1.46
SonarNemotron Superwon
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 15.10 at 15:59 UTC
Roma are averaging 2.7 goals at home and conceding one, and all three of their home matches have gone over 2.5 goals. Genoa have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road, and they arrive without Colombo up front and with three midfielders unavailable, so there is little there to hold the hosts back. Roma have problems of their own in exactly the areas that decide scorelines: first-choice goalkeeper Svilar and Cristante are out, and Malen is suspended after a sending-off. The previous meetings were anything but cautious either: 2-1 in March, 3-1 in December 2025 and 3-1 in January 2025. The odds imply a chance of around 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Where we could be wrong
The worry is how blunt Genoa look away from home: 0.5 goals per game, and in half of their away matches they failed to score at all. Roma already have four clean sheets this season, so a quiet 1-0 against a side that sits deep is a perfectly workable scenario, and three home games is too short a run to treat the hosts' scoring as settled. Our pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.66.
- Two directions drew the same number of AI models: the bet was taken from the one priced closer to the line.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Roma
M. BahMFknee injuryout- B. CristanteMF · 46 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout
- D. MalenFW · 15 goals in 2025/26red cardout
- M. SvilarGK · 48 matches in 2025/26toe injuryout
- M. KoneMF · 37 matches in 2025/26injurydoubtful
Genoa- AmorimMF · 11 matches in 2025/26inactiveout
- L. ColomboFW · 7 goals in 2025/26ankle injuryout
E. HavelMF · 13 goals in 2025/26ankle injuryout- F. MeichtryMF · 9 goals in 2025/26muscle injuryout
- D. SowMF · 5 goals in 2025/26injuryout
L. VenturinoFW · 4 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout- S. OtoaDF · 14 matches in 2025/26injurydoubtful
managers: G. Gasperini · Daniele De Rossi · main formations this season: 3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1
Recent matches
Roma| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10 | Real MadridChampions League | H | 3:4xG 1.5–1.5 | L |
| 11.10 | Como | A | 0:0xG 1.1–1.4 | D |
| 19.09 | Inter | H | 2:2 | D |
| 14.09 | Torino | A | 2:0xG 1.9–0.9 | W |
| 10.09 | FenerbahçeChampions League | A | 1:1 | D |
| 05.09 | Atalanta | H | 2:1xG 3.0–0.7 | W |
Genoa| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Fiorentina | H | 2:1xG 1.5–0.8 | W |
| 02.10 | Rapidclub friendly | A | 0:2 | L |
| 20.09 | Parma | A | 1:2xG 0.7–0.5 | L |
| 15.09 | SudtirolCoppa Italia | H | 1:0 | W |
| 12.09 | Frosinone | H | 1:1xG 1.9–1.9 | D |
| 04.09 | Como | H | 1:4 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Serie A |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 2.3 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 1.8 | 1.4 |
| xG | 2.3 / 1.1 | 1 / 1.2 | 1.5 |
| shots | 18.7 / 10.8 | 11.5 / 15.3 | 14.6 |
| shots on target | 6.2 / 3.5 | 3.2 / 4.3 | 4.8 |
| corners | 5.2 / 2.5 | 4.7 / 4.7 | 4.8 |
| fouls | 12.3 / 8.8 | 10.2 / 12 | 11.1 |
| yellow cards | 2 / 1.5 | 2.8 / 1.8 | 1.7 |
| matches over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| both scored | 33% | 67% | |
| clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 2.7 / 1 | 0.5 / 1.5 | |
| average total | 3.7 | 2 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| both scored | 67% | 50% | |
- Roma score more than the league average: 2.3 vs 1.4
- Genoa score less than the league average: 0.8 vs 1.4
- Roma unbeaten in the last 5 league games
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Roma, away games only for Genoa
Head to head
6–2–2Roma wins · draws · Genoa wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa vs Roma | 2:1 | 08.03.26 | |
| Roma vs Genoa | 3:1 | 29.12.25 | |
| Roma vs Genoa | 3:1 | 17.01.25 | |
| Genoa vs Roma | 1:1 | 15.09.24 | |
| Roma vs Genoa | 1:0 | 19.05.24 | |
| Genoa vs Roma | 4:1 | 28.09.23 | |
| Roma vs Genoa | 1:0 | 12.01.23 | Coppa Italia |
| Roma vs Genoa | 0:0 | 05.02.22 | |
| Genoa vs Roma | 0:2 | 21.11.21 | |
| Roma vs Genoa | 1:0 | 07.03.21 |
- both scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 4 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5-1-0 | 11–4 | 16 | WWDWW |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4-2-0 | 14–3 | 14 | WWWDD |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4-1-1 | 6–3 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1-1-4 | 9–15 | 4 | LDLWL |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1-1-4 | 5–11 | 4 | LLDLW |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1-1-4 | 4–10 | 4 | LDLWL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1520
- 16-3030
- 31-4520
- 46-6022
- 61-7510
- 76-9041
- 0-1521
- 16-3013
- 31-4502
- 46-6010
- 61-7520
- 76-9004
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
