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Udinese vs Lecce: AI prediction and betting pick
On 18 October, Udinese host Lecce. The AI models' pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.82: 12 of 16 models chose it.
- Serie A, matchday 7 of 38
- +20°, mostly clear
- Bluenergy Stadium, Udine
published UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
1.82AI models' pick · 12 of 16 for this bet, 4 for others
Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
likely score
1:0 10%2:1 9%2:0 9%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 9 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 5 days a Lecce win drifted from 4.13 to 4.49 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Under 2.5: 1.82 → 1.81 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Over 2.5 2.00 → 2.02, Under 2.5 1.82 → 1.81.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 · our bet |
|---|---|---|
| 2.02−0.01 | 1.81 | |
| 2.03+0.01 | 1.81 | |
| 2.02+0.01 | 1.81−0.01 | |
| 2.01+0.01 | 1.82 | |
| We published under 2.5 goals at 1.82 | ||
| 2.00opened | 1.82opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for under 2.5 goals. 2 more each for both teams to score and for a Udinese win.
- 12 of 16U 2.5our betodds 1.82ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeek
Gemini
GrokKimiQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMax
SonarNemotron Ultra - 2 of 16BTTSodds 1.80Mistral
Dots3-Note - 2 of 161odds 1.88Xiaomi MiMoNemotron Super
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 15.10 at 15:59 UTC
Recent meetings between these two have brought goals: Udinese won 3-2 in October 2025, and Lecce took the return 2-1 in February 2026. Udinese's home games this season tell a different story, though — 0.7 scored and 1.3 conceded per match, with over 2.5 goals landing in only a third of them. Lecce's away record reads exactly the same, 0.7 and 1.3, and in none of their three away matches have both teams scored, while Lecce themselves failed to score in two of the three. The attacks have thinned out as well: the hosts are without Zaniolo and his six goals, plus Bayo and Gueye, and the visitors are missing Stulic.
Where we could be wrong
Both sides need points in a hurry, sitting 15th and 13th, so an open finish here is a real possibility. Udinese have also had away games averaging 2.3 scored and 3 conceded, which shows the defence does not hold up every week. Even so, our pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.82.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Udinese- V. BayoFW · 16 matches in 2025/26thigh injuryout
I. GueyeFW · 21 matches in 2025/26ankle injuryout- J. PiotrowskiMF · 35 matches in 2025/26heart problemsout
N. ZanioloMF · 6 goals in 2025/26thigh injuryout- J. AbankwahDF · 32 matches in 2025/26injurydoubtful
Lecce- M. BerishaMF · 14 matches in 2025/26lacking match fitnessout
- N. StulicFW · 34 matches in 2025/26muscle injuryout
- I. IlicMF · 8 matches in 2025/26injurydoubtful
managers: K. Runjaic · Eusebio Di Francesco · main formations this season: 3-4-2-1 · 4-3-3
Recent matches
Udinese| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.10 | Torino | A | 1:2xG 0.8–2.7 | L |
| 26.09 | Pogoń Szczecinclub friendly | A | 1:1 | D |
| 19.09 | Cagliari | H | 0:1xG 2.1–1.1 | L |
| 14.09 | Inter | A | 3:5xG 0.9–3.0 | L |
| 07.09 | Lazio | H | 1:2xG 0.8–1.8 | L |
| 02.09 | VeneziaCoppa Italia | H | 2:1 | W |
Lecce| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | Bologna | H | 1:2xG 1.5–2.0 | L |
| 20.09 | Milan | A | 0:3xG 0.2–2.2 | L |
| 13.09 | Monza | H | 3:2xG 1.1–2.8 | W |
| 07.09 | Cagliari | A | 0:1xG 0.5–1.6 | L |
| 31.08 | Roma | H | 0:4xG 0.7–3.4 | L |
| 23.08 | Venezia | A | 2:0xG 2.7–2.0 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Serie A |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.5 / 2.2 | 1 / 2 | 1.4 |
| xG | 1.3 / 1.9 | 1.1 / 2.2 | 1.5 |
| shots | 14.3 / 16.3 | 10.2 / 15.3 | 14.6 |
| shots on target | 4.2 / 5.8 | 3.7 / 7.3 | 4.8 |
| corners | 4.3 / 6 | 4.5 / 4 | 4.8 |
| fouls | 11.2 / 8.5 | 13.3 / 9.2 | 11.1 |
| yellow cards | 2 / 0.5 | 2.2 / 0.8 | 1.7 |
| matches over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| both scored | 83% | 33% | |
| clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| failed to score | 17% | 50% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 0.7 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 1.3 | |
| average total | 2 | 2 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| both scored | 67% | 0% | |
- Lecce shoot less often than the league average: 10.2 shots vs 14.6
- Udinese: 4 league defeats in a row
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Udinese, away games only for Lecce
Head to head
5–2–3Udinese wins · draws · Lecce wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce vs Udinese | 2:1 | 08.02.26 | |
| Udinese vs Lecce | 3:2 | 25.10.25 | |
| Lecce vs Udinese | 0:1 | 21.02.25 | |
| Udinese vs Lecce | 1:0 | 05.10.24 | |
| Lecce vs Udinese | 0:2 | 13.05.24 | |
| Udinese vs Lecce | 1:1 | 23.10.23 | |
| Lecce vs Udinese | 1:0 | 28.04.23 | |
| Udinese vs Lecce | 2:0 | 23.12.22 | club friendly |
| Udinese vs Lecce | 1:1 | 04.11.22 | |
| Udinese vs Lecce | 1:2 | 29.07.20 |
- both scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2-1-3 | 7–9 | 7 | LWLDW |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2-0-4 | 6–12 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1-2-3 | 5–7 | 5 | LDLDW |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1-1-4 | 9–13 | 4 | WLLLL |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1-1-4 | 9–15 | 4 | LDLWL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1510
- 16-3021
- 31-4543
- 46-6013
- 61-7504
- 76-9012
- 0-1522
- 16-3015
- 31-4500
- 46-6010
- 61-7514
- 76-9011
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
