FINISHED
Venezia vs Napoli 1:0: result and odds
Venezia vs Napoli finished 1:0. The AI models' pick was Napoli to win at 1.71, and it lost.
- Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi
- Serie A, matchday 7 of 38
- +21°, mostly clear
- Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Napoli to win
1.71AI models' pick · 12 of 16 for this bet, 4 for others
Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
likely score
1:2 10%0:2 8%0:1 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 9 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 5 days a draw drifted from 3.94 to 3.98 — fewer bets on the draw.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Napoli: 1.71 → 1.73 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (a Napoli win) has drifted from 1.71 to 1.73: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Venezia | Draw | Napoli · our bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.57−0.17 | 3.98 | 1.73+0.03 | |
| 4.74+0.01 | 3.98 | 1.70 | |
| 4.73−0.01 | 3.98−0.04 | 1.70 | |
| 4.74+0.07 | 4.02+0.02 | 1.70−0.01 | |
| 4.67−0.03 | 4.00−0.01 | 1.71 | |
| 4.70−0.04 | 4.01−0.02 | 1.71+0.01 | |
| 4.74+0.12 | 4.03+0.04 | 1.70 | |
| 4.62+0.02 | 3.99+0.01 | 1.70 | |
| 4.60+0.03 | 3.98 | 1.70−0.01 | |
| We published a Napoli win at 1.71 | |||
| 4.57−0.16 | 3.98−0.03 | 1.71+0.02 | |
| 4.73 | 4.01+0.02 | 1.69 | |
| 4.73−0.03 | 3.99−0.03 | 1.69+0.01 | |
| 4.76+0.08 | 4.02+0.04 | 1.68−0.01 | |
| 4.68+0.10 | 3.98+0.04 | 1.69−0.02 | |
| 4.58opened | 3.94opened | 1.71opened | |
How the match went
- 49'Akor Adams (Simon Sohm)1:0
- 54'on Rasmus Hojlund, off Lorenzo Lucca
- 54'on Alisson Santos, off Giovane Santana Do Nascimento
- 54'on Kevin De Bruyne, off Billy Gilmour
- 61'Toma Bašić YC
- 63'on Albion Rrahmani, off John Yeboah
- 63'on Matteo Politano, off Sam Beukema
- 68'Kevin De Bruyne missed penalty
- 71'on Thorir Johann Helgason, off Toma Bašić
- 71'on Pasquale Mazzocchi, off Ridgeciano Haps
- 72'on Joël Schingtienne, off Matias Moreno
- 80'Enrique Pérez Muñoz YC
- 82'on Lamine Fanne, off Simon Sohm
- 82'on Mathias Olivera, off Leonardo Spinazzola
| Venezia | stat | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| 0.67 | expected goals (xG) | 2.46 |
| 9 | shots | 29 |
| 4 | on target | 10 |
| 29% | possession | 71% |
| 0 | corners | 12 |
| 7 | fouls | 6 |
| 9 | saves | 3 |
| 2 | yellow cards | 0 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Venezia- 1F. Stanković — highest feed rating in the match8.9
- 15Juan Jesus7.0
- 2M. Moreno7.0
- 25R. Halhal6.4
- 5R. Haps6.0
- 26T. Bašić6.3
- 19S. Sohm7.1
- 71Kike Pérez6.4
- 18A. Hainaut6.1
- 45A. Adams8.2
- 10J. Yeboah6.3
- 8Lamine Daboon 82'6.7
- 96L. Montipò
- 3J. Schingtienneon 72'6.9
- 20R. Sagrado
- 77Toni Fernández
- 30M. Dagasso
- 56K. Lisman
- 36Lorenzo Berardi
- 16R. Mohammed
- 55S. Panada
- 21Þ. Helgasonon 71'6.5
- 70P. Mazzocchion 71'6.5
- 7A. Rrahmanion 63'6.6
- 29L. Lauberbach
- 95A. Gomes
Napoli- 1A. Meret6.7
- 5B. Badiashile7.6
- 13Amir Rrahmani7.0
- 31S. Beukema7.1
- 37L. Spinazzola6.6
- 68S. Lobotka6.8
- 6B. Gilmour6.8
- 22G. Di Lorenzo6.4
- 8S. McTominay6.9
- 23Giovane6.3
- 20L. Lucca6.2
- 35Luca Marianucci
- 16Rafa Marín
- 17M. Oliveraon 82'6.3
- 21M. Politanoon 63'6.5
- 11K. De Bruyneon 54'7.2
- 99A. Zambo Anguissa
- 27Alisson Santoson 54'7.2
- 19R. Højlundon 54'6.6
- 70N. Lang
- 14N. Contini
- 32V. Milinković-Savić
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on a Napoli win — the bet lost. 6 more chose close bets in the same direction: Napoli −1 and Napoli −1.5. 2 more bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet lost. The other 2 chose a bet each: 'both to score — no' and a total-goals bet.
- 6 of 162our betodds 1.71ChatGPT
Gemini
GrokDeepSeek Flash
SonarNemotron Superlost - 5 of 16H2 (−1)same directionodds 2.21KimiQwenMiniMaxXiaomi MiMoNemotron Ultralost
- 1 of 16H2 (−1.5)same directionodds 2.88Mistrallost
- 2 of 16O 2.5odds 1.69Claude
Dots3-Notelost - 1 of 16BTTS noodds 2.12DeepSeekwon
- 1 of 16U 2.5odds 2.19
GLMwon
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 15.10 at 15:59 UTC
Four meetings with Napoli have brought Venezia nothing: three defeats and a goalless draw in March 2025. At home this season the hosts have lost all three, scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.7 per game, never keeping a clean sheet and twice failing to score at all. Add zero points after six rounds, bottom place in the table and a treatment room that still holds top scorer Adorante, Busio and three defenders. Napoli score 1.7 per game on the road, sit eighth on 10 points, and the market rates the away win at 56%.
Where we could be wrong
What gives pause is the other side of it. Napoli have six men out themselves, among them Anguissa, Buongiorno and Olivera, and the reshuffled defence concedes 1.3 goals per away game. That goalless draw in Venezia is a reminder of how an evening like this can end. Even so, our pick is Napoli to win at 1.71.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Venezia
A. AdoranteFW · 17 goals in 2025/26herniaout- A. Bella-KotchapDF · 20 matches in 2025/26thigh injuryout
- G. BusioMF · 7 goals in 2025/26thigh injuryout
- B. FranjicDF · 20 matches in 2025/26shoulder injuryout
P. MazzocchiDF · 20 matches in 2025/26injuryout
M. SverkoDF · 26 matches in 2025/26hip injuryout- T. CorreiaDF · 25 matches in 2025/26injurydoubtful
Napoli- Alisson Santos15 matches in 2025/26muscle injuryout
- F. AnguissaMF · 22 matches in 2025/26groin injuryout
A. BuongiornoDF · 42 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout- C. FavasuliDF · 42 matches in 2025/26thigh injuryout
- M. OliveraDF · 33 matches in 2025/26groin injuryout
- A. VergaraMF · 19 matches in 2025/26calf injuryout
managers: G. Stroppa · Massimiliano Allegri · main formations this season: 3-5-2 · 4-3-3
Recent matches
Venezia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.10 | Atalanta | A | 1:3xG 2.5–2.3 | L |
| 19.09 | Lazio | H | 0:2xG 1.9–1.6 | L |
| 11.09 | Fiorentina | H | 2:4xG 0.5–3.3 | L |
| 06.09 | Frosinone | A | 2:3xG 2.2–1.9 | L |
| 02.09 | UdineseCoppa Italia | A | 1:2 | L |
| 28.08 | Milan | A | 0:2xG 0.8–2.1 | L |
Napoli| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10 | VillarrealChampions League | A | 1:3xG 1.7–1.2 | L |
| 10.10 | Frosinone | H | 3:0xG 3.1–1.0 | W |
| 20.09 | Fiorentina | A | 1:1xG 1.4–1.1 | D |
| 13.09 | Bologna | H | 1:0xG 1.2–0.3 | W |
| 09.09 | ArsenalChampions League | H | 0:1 | L |
| 05.09 | Inter | A | 2:3xG 2.4–3.9 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Serie A |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 0.8 / 2.7 | 1.7 / 1 | 1.4 |
| xG | 1.7 / 2.3 | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1.5 |
| shots | 14.8 / 15.7 | 14.7 / 16.7 | 14.6 |
| shots on target | 4.3 / 6.8 | 4.8 / 3.8 | 4.8 |
| corners | 4.3 / 4 | 5.5 / 5 | 4.8 |
| fouls | 10.7 / 11 | 9.3 / 9.2 | 11.1 |
| yellow cards | 3 / 1.2 | 1 / 1.2 | 1.7 |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| both scored | 50% | 50% | |
| clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 0.7 / 2.7 | 1.7 / 1.3 | |
| average total | 3.3 | 3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| both scored | 33% | 67% | |
- Venezia score less than the league average: 0.8 vs 1.4
- Napoli score more than the league average: 1.7 vs 1.4
- Venezia: 5 league defeats in a row
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Venezia, away games only for Napoli
Head to head
0–1–3Venezia wins · draws · Napoli wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia vs Napoli | 0:0 | 16.03.25 | |
| Napoli vs Venezia | 1:0 | 29.12.24 | |
| Venezia vs Napoli | 0:2 | 06.02.22 | |
| Napoli vs Venezia | 2:0 | 22.08.21 |
- both scored in 0 of the last 4 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 0 of 4
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3-2-1 | 9–6 | 11 | WWWLD |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3-1-2 | 10–6 | 10 | LLWDW |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3-1-2 | 9–7 | 10 | WWDWL |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1-1-4 | 7–14 | 4 | LLWDL |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0-0-6 | 5–16 | 0 | LLLLL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1502
- 16-3014
- 31-4511
- 46-6003
- 61-7522
- 76-9023
- 0-1500
- 16-3031
- 31-4511
- 46-6022
- 61-7510
- 76-9032
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
