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İstanbul Başakşehir vs Gaziantep: AI prediction and betting pick
On 18 October, İstanbul Başakşehir host Gaziantep. The AI models' pick is İstanbul Başakşehir −1 handicap at 2.05: 8 of 15 models chose it, 4 more went in the same direction.
- Referee: A. Sen
- Super Lig, matchday 8 of 34
- +12°, overcast
- Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Istanbul
published UTC
AI models' pick: İstanbul Başakşehir −1 handicap
2.05Asian handicap: the bet wins if İstanbul Başakşehir win by two goals or more; a one-goal win returns the stake.
AI models' pick · 8 of 15 on this bet · 4 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
likely score
2:1 10%2:0 9%1:0 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — İstanbul Başakşehir −1: 2.05 → 2.06 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: İstanbul Başakşehir −1 2.05 → 2.06, Gaziantep +1 1.73 → 1.72.
Price changes
| When | İstanbul Başakşehir −1 · our bet | Gaziantep +1 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.06+0.01 | 1.72−0.01 | |
| We published İstanbul Başakşehir −1 handicap at 2.05 | ||
| 2.05opened | 1.73opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for İstanbul Başakşehir −1. 6 more chose close bets in the same direction: a İstanbul Başakşehir win and İstanbul Başakşehir −1.5. The other 3 chose a bet each: total-goals bets and 'both to score — no'.
- 6 of 15H1 (−1)our betodds 2.05ClaudeDeepSeek
GrokDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMax - 4 of 151same directionodds 1.64ChatGPT
Gemini
Dots3-NoteNemotron Super - 2 of 15H1 (−1.5)same directionodds 2.65KimiMistral
- 1 of 15O 1.5odds 1.16
Sonar - 1 of 15O 2.5odds 1.60Qwen
- 1 of 15BTTS noodds 2.21Xiaomi MiMo
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 17.10 at 13:51 UTC
At home İstanbul Başakşehir are a different side altogether: two wins, a draw and a defeat, with 2.3 goals scored and one conceded per game, and half of their home matches without conceding. The record against Gaziantep is just as one-sided — seven wins and one draw in the last ten meetings, including a 5-1 demolition on their own pitch in December 2025. The visitors travel without Fuat Bavuk and defender Nazım Sangare, who played 16 matches last season, and their attack has little to offer: six goals in six Super Lig rounds, with 1.06 expected goals a game. The prices tell the same story, 1.64 on the hosts against 4.68 on Gaziantep.
The caveat is that away days have been the best part of the season for Gaziantep: two wins in three on the road and 1.7 goals a game, so nobody should expect a walkover. İstanbul Başakşehir also needed a one-goal margin to get through two of the last three meetings, and Edin Višća is a doubt.
Where we could be wrong
Even so, the gap in quality at this ground looks big enough. Our pick is the İstanbul Başakşehir −1 handicap at 2.05.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
İstanbul Başakşehir- E. ViscaMF · 9 matches in 2025/26injurydoubtful
Gaziantep- F. Bavukhamstring injuryout
- N. SangareDF · 16 matches in 2025/26back injuryout
managers: Nuri Sahin · Orhan Ak · main formations this season: 4-2-3-1 · 4-1-4-1
Recent matches
İstanbul Başakşehir| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | Konyaspor | A | 0:0xG 1.0–0.4 | D |
| 19.09 | Gençlerbirliği | H | 4:0xG 2.7–0.5 | W |
| 13.09 | Amedspor | A | 0:5xG 0.4–4.3 | L |
| 04.09 | Galatasaray | H | 2:3xG 2.0–2.1 | L |
| 30.08 | Kasımpaşa | H | 1:1xG 0.8–1.7 | D |
| 23.08 | Trabzonspor | A | 1:2xG 1.9–2.3 | L |
Gaziantep| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | Çorum | H | 0:3xG 1.0–2.7 | L |
| 19.09 | Kocaelispor | A | 0:2xG 1.0–1.3 | L |
| 14.09 | Fenerbahçe | H | 0:0xG 0.5–1.3 | D |
| 07.09 | Göztepe | A | 4:2xG 1.9–3.3 | W |
| 29.08 | Çaykur Rizespor | H | 1:2xG 0.8–1.2 | L |
| 23.08 | Eyüpspor | A | 1:0xG 1.2–0.5 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Super Lig |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1 / 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.5 / 1.6 | 1 / 1.6 | 1.4 |
| shots | 12.1 / 12.9 | 12.9 / 14.1 | 14.1 |
| shots on target | 3.7 / 4.3 | 3.1 / 3.9 | 4.7 |
| corners | 4.4 / 4 | 4.3 / 4 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 12.6 / 11.6 | 12.1 / 15.1 | 12.7 |
| yellow cards | 2.1 / 1.6 | 2.1 / 2.1 | 2 |
| matches over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | |
| both scored | 43% | 43% | |
| clean sheets | 43% | 29% | |
| failed to score | 29% | 43% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 2.3 / 1 | 1.7 / 1.3 | |
| average total | 3.3 | 3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| both scored | 50% | 33% | |
- İstanbul Başakşehir shoot less often than the league average: 12.1 shots vs 14.1
- Gaziantep score less than the league average: 1 vs 1.5
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for İstanbul Başakşehir, away games only for Gaziantep
Head to head
7–1–2İstanbul Başakşehir wins · draws · Gaziantep wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep vs İstanbul Başakşehir | 1:2 | 16.05.26 | |
| İstanbul Başakşehir vs Gaziantep | 5:1 | 22.12.25 | |
| İstanbul Başakşehir vs Gaziantep | 2:1 | 20.04.25 | |
| Gaziantep vs İstanbul Başakşehir | 3:0 | 23.11.24 | |
| Gaziantep vs İstanbul Başakşehir | 0:2 | 24.02.24 | |
| İstanbul Başakşehir vs Gaziantep | 2:0 | 07.10.23 | |
| İstanbul Başakşehir vs Gaziantep | 3:0 | 30.05.23 | |
| Gaziantep vs İstanbul Başakşehir | 1:1 | 05.01.23 | |
| İstanbul Başakşehir vs Gaziantep | 2:0 | 12.02.22 | |
| Gaziantep vs İstanbul Başakşehir | 1:0 | 22.09.21 |
- both scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 5 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Çaykur Rizespor | 8 | 3-1-4 | 8–11 | 10 | LWDLL |
| 11 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 7 | 2-2-3 | 10–11 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 12 | Gaziantep | 7 | 2-2-3 | 7–10 | 8 | LWDLL |
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği | 7 | 2-2-3 | 7–15 | 8 | DLLLD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1521
- 16-3021
- 31-4520
- 46-6013
- 61-7532
- 76-9004
- 0-1521
- 16-3001
- 31-4522
- 46-6013
- 61-7510
- 76-9004
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
