24 Oct
Gaziantep vs Erzurumspor: AI prediction and betting pick
On 24 October, Gaziantep host Erzurumspor. The AI models' pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.77: 13 of 15 models chose it.
- Super Lig, matchday 9 of 34
- +21°, mostly clear
- Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
1.77AI models' pick · 13 of 15 for this bet, 2 for others
Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
likely score
1:0 10%0:0 10%2:1 9%
The likely score lists the four most likely results. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
There is only one snapshot of the line so far — movement will appear with the next runs.
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for under 2.5 goals. 2 more went for an Erzurumspor win.
- 13 of 15U 2.5our betodds 1.77ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeek
Gemini
GrokKimiQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMaxMistral
SonarXiaomi MiMo - 2 of 152odds 3.53
Dots3-NoteNemotron Super
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 17.10 at 18:06 UTC
Goals have been scarce at Gaziantep's home games: 0.5 per match, and in half of their four home outings they failed to score at all. Erzurumspor are even more frugal on the road — 0.3 scored, and no goal at all in three of their four trips. The visitors have built the season on their defence, with four clean sheets in six Super Lig rounds, five goals scored and four conceded. The previous meetings run the same way: three draws in five matches, including 0-0 in Gaziantep in May 2018 and 1-1 in January 2021. The market rates under 2.5 goals at around 54%.
Where we could be wrong
The other side of it is that Gaziantep ship 1.5 per game at home, and half of their home matches have gone over 2.5 goals, with Erzurumspor's away fixtures splitting the same way. The hosts sit 13th and are still without a home win, so an open game in pursuit of points would wreck this pattern. We're still backing under 2.5 goals at 1.77.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Gaziantep| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | Çorum | H | 0:3xG 1.0–2.7 | L |
| 19.09 | Kocaelispor | A | 0:2xG 1.0–1.3 | L |
| 14.09 | Fenerbahçe | H | 0:0xG 0.5–1.3 | D |
| 07.09 | Göztepe | A | 4:2xG 1.9–3.3 | W |
| 29.08 | Çaykur Rizespor | H | 1:2xG 0.8–1.2 | L |
| 23.08 | Eyüpspor | A | 1:0xG 1.2–0.5 | W |
Erzurumspor| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Eyüpspor | H | 2:0xG 1.2–0.4 | W |
| 10.10 | Alanyaspor | A | 0:0xG 1.7–1.0 | D |
| 20.09 | Samsunspor | H | 1:0xG 0.7–0.4 | W |
| 11.09 | Beşiktaş | A | 0:3xG 0.5–2.3 | L |
| 05.09 | Konyaspor | H | 1:0xG 1.2–1.6 | W |
| 28.08 | Gençlerbirliği | A | 1:1xG 0.9–0.8 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Super Lig |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1 / 1.4 | 0.4 / 1.6 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 1.5 | 1.4 |
| shots | 12.9 / 14.1 | 9.9 / 13.9 | 14.1 |
| shots on target | 3.1 / 3.9 | 2.9 / 4 | 4.7 |
| corners | 4.3 / 4 | 3.1 / 4.6 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 12.1 / 15.1 | 11.3 / 12.1 | 12.7 |
| yellow cards | 2.1 / 2.1 | 1.6 / 2.3 | 2 |
| matches over 2.5 | 43% | 43% | |
| both scored | 43% | 14% | |
| clean sheets | 29% | 43% | |
| failed to score | 43% | 57% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 0.5 / 1.5 | 0.3 / 1.8 | |
| average total | 2 | 2 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| both scored | 50% | 25% | |
- Gaziantep score less than the league average: 1 vs 1.5
- Erzurumspor score less than the league average: 0.4 vs 1.5
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Gaziantep, away games only for Erzurumspor
Head to head
0–3–2Gaziantep wins · draws · Erzurumspor wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep vs Erzurumspor | 2:3 | 25.04.21 | |
| Erzurumspor vs Gaziantep | 1:1 | 02.01.21 | |
| Gaziantep vs Erzurumspor | 0:0 | 19.05.18 | TFF First League |
| Erzurumspor vs Gaziantep | 2:1 | 07.04.18 | TFF First League |
| Gaziantep vs Erzurumspor | 2:2 | 26.11.17 | TFF First League |
- both scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 5
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4-0-3 | 8–6 | 12 | WWLWL |
| 9 | Erzurumspor | 8 | 3-2-3 | 5–11 | 11 | WLWDW |
| 10 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2-4-1 | 8–8 | 10 | DDWDL |
| 12 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 7 | 2-2-3 | 10–11 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 13 | Gaziantep | 7 | 2-2-3 | 7–10 | 8 | LWDLL |
| 14 | Gençlerbirliği | 8 | 2-2-4 | 7–16 | 8 | LLLDL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1521
- 16-3001
- 31-4522
- 46-6013
- 61-7510
- 76-9004
- 0-1501
- 16-3023
- 31-4511
- 46-6021
- 61-7503
- 76-9011
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
