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Kocaelispor vs Göztepe: AI prediction and betting pick
On 18 October, Kocaelispor host Göztepe. The AI models' pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.86: two directions drew level, so we took the one closer to the market line.
- Referee: A. Akarsu
- Super Lig, matchday 8 of 34
- +16°, cloudy, wind 15 km/h
- Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli
published UTC
AI models' pick: Over 2.5 goals
1.86AI models' pick · Two directions drew level; the one priced closer to the line was taken
Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
likely score
1:2 8%2:1 8%0:0 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Over 2.5: 1.86 → 1.85 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Over 2.5 1.86 → 1.85, Under 2.5 1.93 → 1.94.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 · our bet | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.85+0.01 | 1.94−0.02 | |
| 1.84−0.02 | 1.96+0.03 | |
| We published over 2.5 goals at 1.86 | ||
| 1.86opened | 1.93opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The vote split evenly: 4 each for over 2.5 goals and for under 2.5 goals. The other 7 chose other bets: both teams to score, double chance, a Göztepe win and a Kocaelispor win.
- 4 of 15O 2.5our betodds 1.86
GeminiKimiDeepSeek FlashXiaomi MiMo - 4 of 15U 2.5odds 1.93DeepSeek
GrokQwenMiniMax - 3 of 15BTTSodds 1.66Claude
GLMNemotron Super - 2 of 151Xodds 1.56ChatGPT
Sonar - 1 of 152odds 2.33Mistral
- 1 of 151odds 2.87
Dots3-Note
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 17.10 at 13:51 UTC
Göztepe have been involved in wide-open games on the road. All four of their away matches this season went over 2.5 goals, with the side averaging 2.8 scored and two conceded, and both teams scored in three of the four. Across six rounds of the Super Lig they have 12 goals for and 12 against, with 2.26 xG in attack, and few opponents have managed to keep that sort of football down to a low score.
Kocaelispor come into this round without four defenders, including Dijksteel and Zukru, and two more are doubtful. At home, though, the hosts have not conceded in three matches and none of those games went past 2.5 goals, which is why the market rates over at just 51%.
Where we could be wrong
Without Petkovic, who scored seven goals last season, Kocaelispor have little to answer with beyond set pieces, and they build their home games from the back. The previous meetings back that up: 1-1 in April and 0-0 in November 2025. Even so, our pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.86.
- The AI models are split: 4 back this bet, while 4 chose bets that cannot win alongside it.
- Two directions drew the same number of AI models: the bet was taken from the one priced closer to the line.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Kocaelispor- A. DijksteelDF · 34 matches in 2025/26muscle injuryout
- M. HaidaraDF · 23 matches in 2025/26muscle injuryout
- B. PetkovicFW · 7 goals in 2025/26hamstring injuryout
- T. ZoukrouDF · 48 matches in 2025/26muscle injuryout
- A. JovanovicGK · 19 matches in 2025/26knee injurydoubtful
- M. MaglicaDF · 8 goals in 2025/26injurydoubtful
Göztepe- F. BayirDF · 9 matches in 2025/26inactiveout
- I. SabraFW · 9 matches in 2025/26ankle injuryout
- L. GugeshashviliGK · 9 matches in 2025/26inactivedoubtful
managers: Selcuk Inan · Stanimir Stoilov · main formations this season: 4-3-3 · 3-4-1-2
Recent matches
Kocaelispor| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | Beşiktaş | A | 1:2xG 1.6–2.2 | L |
| 19.09 | Gaziantep | H | 2:0xG 1.3–1.0 | W |
| 13.09 | Galatasaray | A | 0:1xG 0.8–2.3 | L |
| 06.09 | Samsunspor | H | 1:0xG 1.6–1.7 | W |
| 29.08 | Konyaspor | A | 2:1xG 0.8–0.8 | W |
| 24.08 | Amedspor | H | 2:0xG 1.3–0.6 | W |
Göztepe| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.10 | Eyüpspor | A | 4:0xG 3.1–1.3 | W |
| 20.09 | Çaykur Rizespor | H | 2:2xG 2.8–0.8 | D |
| 12.09 | Alanyaspor | A | 2:2xG 1.8–1.7 | D |
| 07.09 | Gaziantep | H | 2:4xG 3.3–1.9 | L |
| 29.08 | Galatasaray | A | 2:3xG 0.6–2.9 | L |
| 23.08 | Gençlerbirliği | H | 0:1xG 1.9–1.6 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Super Lig |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.1 / 0.9 | 2.1 / 2.1 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.1 / 1.5 | 2.2 / 1.8 | 1.4 |
| shots | 12.1 / 17 | 17.4 / 16.6 | 14.1 |
| shots on target | 4.3 / 4 | 6 / 4.9 | 4.7 |
| corners | 3.4 / 6 | 5.4 / 4.7 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 12.4 / 13.7 | 14.3 / 8.6 | 12.7 |
| yellow cards | 1.6 / 1.6 | 2.6 / 1.7 | 2 |
| matches over 2.5 | 29% | 86% | |
| both scored | 29% | 71% | |
| clean sheets | 43% | 14% | |
| failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1.7 / 0 | 2.8 / 2 | |
| average total | 1.7 | 4.8 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| both scored | 0% | 75% | |
- Kocaelispor score less than the league average: 1.1 vs 1.5
- Göztepe score more than the league average: 2.1 vs 1.5
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Kocaelispor, away games only for Göztepe
Head to head
2–2–0Kocaelispor wins · draws · Göztepe wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor vs Göztepe | 1:1 | 18.04.26 | |
| Göztepe vs Kocaelispor | 0:0 | 23.11.25 | |
| Kocaelispor vs Göztepe | 3:2 | 03.04.24 | TFF First League |
| Göztepe vs Kocaelispor | 0:1 | 04.11.23 | TFF First League |
- both scored in 2 of the last 4 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 1 of 4
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3-3-1 | 8–6 | 12 | LWDWD |
| 8 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4-0-3 | 8–6 | 12 | WWLWL |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2-4-1 | 8–8 | 10 | DDWDL |
| 14 | Erzurumspor | 7 | 2-2-3 | 3–11 | 8 | DWLWD |
| 15 | Göztepe | 7 | 1-3-3 | 15–15 | 6 | LLDDW |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 7 | 1-2-4 | 4–8 | 5 | LLWDD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1501
- 16-3031
- 31-4511
- 46-6010
- 61-7512
- 76-9030
- 0-1532
- 16-3021
- 31-4504
- 46-6042
- 61-7544
- 76-9022
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
