24 Oct
Samsunspor vs Amedspor: AI prediction and betting pick
On 24 October, Samsunspor host Amedspor. The AI models' pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.76: 8 of 15 models chose it.
- Super Lig, matchday 9 of 34
- +16°, cloudy
- Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsun
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Over 2.5 goals
1.76AI models' pick · 8 of 15 for this bet, 7 for others
Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
likely score
2:1 9%1:2 8%0:0 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
There is only one snapshot of the line so far — movement will appear with the next runs.
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for over 2.5 goals. 7 more went for an Amedspor win.
- 8 of 15O 2.5our betodds 1.76ClaudeDeepSeekQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLM
SonarXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-Note - 7 of 152odds 2.75ChatGPT
Gemini
GrokKimiMiniMaxMistralNemotron Super
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 17.10 at 18:06 UTC
Samsunspor arrive on a run of five straight defeats, with one goal scored and twelve conceded along the way. Home form tells the same story: 3.3 goals conceded per game across four matches and just one scored at the other end, with over 2.5 goals landing in three of those four. They have yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Amedspor sit second on 17 points after eight rounds and travel well in front of goal — over 2.5 goals in two of three away trips, both teams scoring just as often, and 15 scored against seven conceded for the season at 2.17 xG a game. The market makes the goals a little better than an even bet, rating over 2.5 at 52%.
The case against is that the hosts offer almost nothing going forward. They have failed to score in half of their home games, and 0.96 xG per match drags the goal markets down. Amedspor are also a different side on the road: 1.3 scored and two conceded away, against 2.8 and 0.6 at home.
Where we could be wrong
Even so, a defence shipping goals at this rate against the division's second-placed side points one way. Our pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.76.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Samsunspor| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Trabzonspor | H | 0:3xG 1.7–2.0 | L |
| 20.09 | Erzurumspor | A | 0:1xG 0.4–0.7 | L |
| 12.09 | Çorum | H | 1:5xG 1.2–1.7 | L |
| 06.09 | Kocaelispor | A | 0:1xG 1.7–1.6 | L |
| 30.08 | Fenerbahçe | H | 0:2xG 0.5–1.6 | L |
| 22.08 | Çaykur Rizespor | A | 2:0xG 0.3–1.9 | W |
Amedspor| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Konyaspor | H | 1:0xG 1.3–0.2 | W |
| 10.10 | Gençlerbirliği | A | 2:2xG 2.2–0.5 | D |
| 20.09 | Beşiktaş | H | 3:2xG 1.5–2.0 | W |
| 13.09 | İstanbul Başakşehir | H | 5:0xG 4.3–0.4 | W |
| 06.09 | Kasımpaşa | A | 2:2xG 1.1–1.0 | D |
| 31.08 | Trabzonspor | H | 2:1xG 2.7–0.9 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Super Lig |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 0.9 / 2.1 | 2.4 / 1.3 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.9 / 0.9 | 1.4 |
| shots | 14.6 / 15 | 15.3 / 11 | 14.1 |
| shots on target | 3.1 / 6.3 | 5.1 / 4.1 | 4.7 |
| corners | 4.6 / 5.4 | 4.1 / 4.7 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 13.4 / 13.1 | 14.1 / 10.9 | 12.7 |
| yellow cards | 0.9 / 1.7 | 3.1 / 2.7 | 2 |
| matches over 2.5 | 43% | 86% | |
| both scored | 29% | 57% | |
| clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| failed to score | 57% | 14% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1 / 3.3 | 1.3 / 2 | |
| average total | 4.3 | 3.3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 75% | 67% | |
| both scored | 50% | 67% | |
- Samsunspor score less than the league average: 0.9 vs 1.5
- Amedspor score more than the league average: 2.4 vs 1.5
- Samsunspor: 5 league defeats in a row
- Amedspor unbeaten in the last 5 league games
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Samsunspor, away games only for Amedspor
Head to head
2–1–1Samsunspor wins · draws · Amedspor wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor vs Amedspor | 3:0 | 19.02.20 | 2. Lig |
| Amedspor vs Samsunspor | 0:0 | 09.10.19 | 2. Lig |
| Amedspor vs Samsunspor | 3:2 | 20.01.19 | 2. Lig |
| Samsunspor vs Amedspor | 1:0 | 02.09.18 | 2. Lig |
- both scored in 1 of the last 4 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 4
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6-1-1 | 17–11 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 2 | Amedspor | 8 | 5-2-1 | 18–9 | 17 | DWWDW |
| 3 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5-0-2 | 16–8 | 15 | WWWLW |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 8 | 1-2-5 | 4–9 | 5 | LWDDL |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1-1-5 | 6–15 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 8 | 1-0-7 | 2–22 | 3 | LLLLL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1515
- 16-3012
- 31-4523
- 46-6002
- 61-7513
- 76-9010
- 0-1511
- 16-3022
- 31-4511
- 46-6053
- 61-7540
- 76-9043
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
