17 Oct
Elversberg vs Augsburg: AI prediction and betting pick
On 17 October, Elversberg host Augsburg. The AI models' pick is both teams to score at 1.38: two directions drew level, so we took the one closer to the market line.
- Bundesliga, matchday 6 of 34
- +12°, mostly clear
- URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg
published UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.38AI models' pick · Two directions drew level; the one priced closer to the line was taken
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
Match odds
Over 2 days the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.38 → 1.38 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Yes 1.38 → 1.38, No 2.84 → 2.84.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| We published both teams score at 1.38 | ||
| 1.38opened | 2.84opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for both teams to score. 4 more went for over 3.5 goals. The other 4 chose other bets: total-goals bets.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 13.10 at 12:23 UTC
Elversberg have failed to score in two of their five matches, and the only previous meeting tells us nothing about these sides: Augsburg won 3-1 in the German Cup back in 2015. At home, though, Elversberg have both scored and conceded in both games — two goals at each end, four per match. Augsburg's two away outings also brought goals from both sides, three scored and two conceded each time, and across the season they have 13 goals for and eight against, with 1.89 xG in attack against 2.94 faced in their own box. The market rates the chance of both teams scoring at 67%, and the odds have not moved in two days.
Where we could be wrong
The doubt is that the whole picture rests on just two home and two away games, and Elversberg's creativity looks modest: 1.15 xG and four shots on target per match. Augsburg have already kept a clean sheet this season, and if they defend as tightly here, the hosts may lack the cutting edge. Even so, we're backing both teams to score.
- Two directions drew the same number of AI models: the bet was taken from the one priced closer to the line.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Elversbergno absences listed
Augsburgno absences listed
managers: Vincent Wagner · Manuel Baum · main formations this season: 4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1
Recent matches
Elversberg| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Union Berlin | A | 0:1xG 0.2–1.1 | L |
| 24.09 | Waldhof Mannheimclub friendly | A | 1:2 | L |
| 20.09 | Schalke | A | 0:0xG 1.0–1.0 | D |
| 13.09 | Bayern Munich | H | 1:2xG 0.9–2.8 | L |
| 05.09 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | A | 4:3xG 2.3–2.4 | W |
| 29.08 | Bayer Leverkusen | H | 3:2xG 1.3–1.9 | W |
Augsburg| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Bayern Munich | H | 2:2xG 2.4–5.0 | D |
| 02.10 | Hertha BSCclub friendly | H | 2:2 | D |
| 19.09 | Werder Bremen | A | 2:3xG 1.1–2.8 | L |
| 12.09 | Bayer Leverkusen | H | 2:2xG 1.1–2.6 | D |
| 06.09 | Eintracht Frankfurt | A | 4:1xG 1.1–2.2 | W |
| 30.08 | Schalke | H | 3:0xG 3.7–2.1 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Bundesliga |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.6 / 1.6 | 2.6 / 1.6 | 1.9 |
| xG | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1.9 / 2.8 | 1.8 |
| shots | 9.6 / 21.2 | 13.6 / 22.6 | 15.8 |
| shots on target | 4 / 4.6 | 6.8 / 7.8 | 5.5 |
| corners | 3.6 / 7.2 | 4.8 / 7.4 | 5.4 |
| fouls | 11 / 13 | 9 / 8.8 | 11.3 |
| yellow cards | 1.8 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.7 |
| matches over 2.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| both scored | 60% | 80% | |
| clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 2 / 2 | 3 / 2 | |
| average total | 4 | 5 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| both scored | 100% | 100% | |
- Elversberg shoot less often than the league average: 9.6 shots vs 15.8
- Augsburg score more than the league average: 2.6 vs 1.9
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Elversberg, away games only for Augsburg
Head to head
0–0–1Elversberg wins · draws · Augsburg wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elversberg vs Augsburg | 1:3 | 07.08.15 | DFB Pokal |
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Leipzig | 5 | 3-0-2 | 15–5 | 9 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2-2-1 | 13–8 | 8 | DLDWW |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2-2-1 | 10–10 | 8 | DWDWL |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2-1-2 | 13–10 | 7 | LWLWD |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2-1-2 | 8–8 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 10 | Köln | 5 | 2-1-2 | 8–10 | 7 | WLDLW |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1521
- 16-3011
- 31-4501
- 46-6011
- 61-7521
- 76-9023
- 0-1511
- 16-3021
- 31-4500
- 46-6042
- 61-7521
- 76-9034
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
