16 Oct
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Köln: AI prediction and betting pick
On 16 October, Eintracht Frankfurt host Köln. The AI models' pick is over 3.5 goals at 1.96: 10 of 16 models chose it, 2 more went in the same direction.
- Bundesliga, matchday 6 of 34
- +15°, cloudy
- Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt
published UTC


AI models' pick: Over 3.5 goals
1.96Now 1.92 · 1.96 when published
AI models' pick · 10 of 16 on this bet · 2 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
Match odds
Over 2 days a draw drifted from 4.03 to 4.10 — fewer bets on the draw.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Over 3.5: 1.96 → 1.92 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (over 3.5 goals) has shortened from 1.96 to 1.92: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Over 3.5 · our bet | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.92−0.01 | 1.90 | |
| We published over 3.5 goals at 1.96 | ||
| 1.93−0.05 | 1.90+0.04 | |
| 12 Oct – 13 Oct · no snapshots for 13 h | ||
| 1.98+0.02 | 1.86−0.01 | |
| 1.96opened | 1.87opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for over 3.5 goals. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: over 2.5 goals and over 3 goals. 3 more went for both teams to score. One more went for an Eintracht Frankfurt win.
- 10 of 16O 3.5our betodds 1.96ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeek
GeminiKimiQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-Note - 3 of 16BTTSodds 1.35
GrokMistralNemotron Super - 1 of 16O 2.5same directionodds 1.36MiniMax
- 1 of 16O 3same directionodds 1.56Nemotron Ultra
- 1 of 161odds 1.95
Sonar
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 13.10 at 12:23 UTC
Eintracht Frankfurt have shipped 16 goals in five Bundesliga rounds while scoring nine, and they have yet to keep a clean sheet. Köln look just as exposed on the road: two matches, two defeats and three conceded in each. Both of Eintracht's home games and both of Köln's away trips have gone over 2.5 goals with both teams scoring, and the previous meetings hold the same standard — 2-2 in Frankfurt in April, and Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-3 in November 2025. The 3.5 line asks for four goals, though, and a price of 1.96 fairly reflects how close to even this is.
Where we could be wrong
At home Köln are a different side: three matches, two wins and 1.3 conceded on average, so they can defend their goal tightly and may sit deeper in Frankfurt, especially with only one goal of their own per game away from home. Eintracht also have a blank in this season's record, and two matches in these respective roles is too small a sample to treat the flow of goals as a rule. Our pick is over 3.5 goals at 1.96.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
no absences listed
no absences listed
managers: Adi Hutter · Rene Wagner · main formations this season: 4-4-2 · 4-3-3
Recent matches
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Leipzig | A | 0:6xG 1.5–4.0 | L |
| 02.10 | Eintracht Braunschweigclub friendly | H | 4:0 | W |
| 19.09 | Freiburg | H | 2:2xG 2.2–3.1 | D |
| 12.09 | Mainz | A | 3:1xG 2.0–2.1 | W |
| 06.09 | Augsburg | H | 1:4xG 2.2–1.1 | L |
| 29.08 | Union Berlin | A | 3:3xG 1.5–1.8 | D |
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | H | 2:1xG 1.3–1.2 | W |
| 03.10 | FC Viktoria Kölnclub friendly | A | 2:2 | D |
| 19.09 | Hamburg | A | 1:2 | L |
| 12.09 | Werder Bremen | H | 1:1 | D |
| 04.09 | Stuttgart | A | 1:4 | L |
| 29.08 | Hoffenheim | H | 3:2xG 1.9–1.9 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | Bundesliga | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.8 / 3.2 | 1.6 / 2 | 1.9 |
| xG | 1.9 / 2.4 | 1.8 / 1.8 | 1.8 |
| shots | 14.6 / 19.2 | 17.6 / 15.8 | 15.8 |
| shots on target | 5.6 / 7.8 | 5.8 / 6.2 | 5.5 |
| corners | 5 / 4.2 | 6.6 / 6.2 | 5.4 |
| fouls | 10.8 / 12.4 | 10 / 12 | 11.3 |
| yellow cards | 2.4 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.6 | 1.7 |
| matches over 2.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| both scored | 80% | 100% | |
| clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1.5 / 3 | 1 / 3 | |
| average total | 4.5 | 4 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| both scored | 100% | 100% | |
- Köln score less than the league average: 1.6 vs 1.9
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Eintracht Frankfurt, away games only for Köln
Head to head
2–5–3Eintracht Frankfurt wins · draws · Köln wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt vs Köln | 2:2 | 05.04.26 | |
| Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 3:4 | 22.11.25 | |
| Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 2:0 | 03.02.24 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt vs Köln | 1:1 | 03.09.23 | |
| Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 3:0 | 12.02.23 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt vs Köln | 1:1 | 21.08.22 | |
| Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 1:0 | 19.02.22 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt vs Köln | 1:1 | 25.09.21 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt vs Köln | 2:0 | 14.02.21 | |
| Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 1:1 | 18.10.20 |
- both scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2-1-2 | 8–8 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 10 | Köln | 5 | 2-1-2 | 8–10 | 7 | WLDLW |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2-0-3 | 8–9 | 6 | WLLWL |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1-2-2 | 4–6 | 5 | LDWDL |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1-2-2 | 9–16 | 5 | LDWLD |
| 15 | Paderborn | 5 | 1-1-3 | 3–7 | 4 | LWLLD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1553
- 16-3000
- 31-4523
- 46-6023
- 61-7511
- 76-9005
- 0-1510
- 16-3011
- 31-4503
- 46-6012
- 61-7523
- 76-9022
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals