17 Oct
Hamburg vs Stuttgart: AI prediction and betting pick
On 17 October, Hamburg host Stuttgart. The AI models' pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.36: 6 of 15 models chose it, 3 more went in the same direction.
- Bundesliga, matchday 6 of 34
- +13°, cloudy
- Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
published UTC
AI models' pick: Over 2.5 goals
1.36AI models' pick · 6 of 15 on this bet · 3 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
Match odds
Over 2 days the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementdraw 3.98 → 4.00 over 2 days · 27 snapshotsView
This market has barely moved: Hamburg 3.76 → 3.76, Draw 3.98 → 4.00, Stuttgart 1.82 → 1.83.
Price changes
| When | Hamburg | Draw | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.76 | 4.00+0.02 | 1.83+0.01 | |
| 3.76opened | 3.98opened | 1.82opened |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for over 2.5 goals. 3 more chose close bets in the same direction: over 3.5 goals. 2 more each for both teams to score, for a Stuttgart win and for Stuttgart −1.
- 6 of 15O 2.5our betodds 1.36ClaudeQwenMiniMaxXiaomi MiMoNemotron SuperNemotron Ultra
- 3 of 15O 3.5same directionodds 1.95ChatGPTDeepSeekKimi
- 2 of 15BTTSodds 1.36
GrokMistral - 2 of 152odds 1.83
Gemini
Sonar - 2 of 15H2 (−1)odds 2.37DeepSeek Flash
GLM
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 13.10 at 12:23 UTC
Hamburg have five goals scored and 15 conceded in five rounds, and both of their home games have sailed past 2.5, averaging four goals apiece. Stuttgart travel with their visor up too: 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded per away match, with two thirds of those trips going over. Across the season they sit on 1.83 xG of their own against 2.02 allowed, from 15.8 shots. The previous meetings point the same way, finishing 4-0 in April 2026 and 2-1 in November 2025.
Where we could be wrong
The counter-argument is real. Stuttgart's strength is possession at 55.8%, and once a goal or two in front the away side know how to slow the game down. Hamburg have been shut out in three matches this season, and in half of their home outings they failed to score. Add the Champions League fixtures for Stuttgart: the side that turns up here may be a reshuffled one, with a more cautious tempo than usual.
Even so, the attacking and defensive numbers on both sides stack up, and our pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.36.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Hamburgno absences listed
Stuttgartno absences listed
managers: Merlin Polzin · Sebastian Hoeness · main formations this season: 3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1
Recent matches
Hamburg| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Hoffenheim | A | 3:2xG 1.3–0.9 | W |
| 04.10 | Copenhagenclub friendly | H | 2:0 | W |
| 19.09 | Köln | H | 2:1 | W |
| 13.09 | Leipzig | A | 0:5xG 1.1–2.4 | L |
| 06.09 | Mainz | H | 0:5 | L |
| 29.08 | Borussia Dortmund | A | 0:2xG 0.9–1.5 | L |
Stuttgart| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Paderborn | A | 2:0xG 2.5–2.0 | W |
| 01.10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürthclub friendly | H | 5:0 | W |
| 25.09 | 1. FC Heidenheimclub friendly | H | 3:0 | W |
| 19.09 | Borussia Dortmund | H | 0:1xG 0.9–1.3 | L |
| 12.09 | Hoffenheim | A | 1:2xG 2.2–2.8 | L |
| 09.09 | VikingChampions League | H | 3:1 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Bundesliga |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1 / 3 | 1.6 / 1.8 | 1.9 |
| xG | 1 / 1.8 | 2 / 2.6 | 1.8 |
| shots | 10.6 / 18.2 | 15.8 / 19.2 | 15.8 |
| shots on target | 3.8 / 5.8 | 6 / 6 | 5.5 |
| corners | 3.6 / 5.4 | 6.2 / 6.2 | 5.4 |
| fouls | 14.8 / 13.6 | 10 / 11 | 11.3 |
| yellow cards | 1 / 2 | 1.2 / 2.2 | 1.7 |
| matches over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| both scored | 40% | 60% | |
| clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1 / 3 | 1.3 / 2.3 | |
| average total | 4 | 3.7 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| both scored | 50% | 67% | |
- Hamburg score less than the league average: 1 vs 1.9
- Stuttgart score less than the league average: 1.6 vs 1.9
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Hamburg, away games only for Stuttgart
Head to head
3–1–6Hamburg wins · draws · Stuttgart wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart vs Hamburg | 4:0 | 12.04.26 | |
| Hamburg vs Stuttgart | 2:1 | 30.11.25 | |
| Hamburg vs Stuttgart | 1:3 | 05.06.23 | |
| Stuttgart vs Hamburg | 3:0 | 01.06.23 | |
| Stuttgart vs Hamburg | 3:2 | 26.08.20 | club friendly |
| Stuttgart vs Hamburg | 3:2 | 28.05.20 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Hamburg vs Stuttgart | 1:2 | 29.10.19 | DFB Pokal |
| Hamburg vs Stuttgart | 6:2 | 26.10.19 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Stuttgart vs Hamburg | 1:1 | 31.03.18 | |
| Hamburg vs Stuttgart | 3:1 | 04.11.17 |
- both scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 9 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Köln | 5 | 2-1-2 | 8–10 | 7 | WLDLW |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2-0-3 | 8–9 | 6 | WLLWL |
| 12 | Hamburg | 5 | 2-0-3 | 5–15 | 6 | WWLLL |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1-2-2 | 4–6 | 5 | LDWDL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1511
- 16-3003
- 31-4522
- 46-6012
- 61-7502
- 76-9024
- 0-1501
- 16-3011
- 31-4510
- 46-6041
- 61-7512
- 76-9032
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
