24 Oct13:30 UTC

Leipzig vs Elversberg: AI prediction and betting pick

On 24 October, Leipzig host Elversberg. The AI models' pick is Leipzig −1.5 handicap at 1.91: 11 of 16 models chose it.

Bundesliga, matchday 7 of 34
+12°, light rain, wind 15 km/h
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

published 19.10 at 08:55 UTC

AI models' pick: Leipzig −1.5 handicap

1.91

AI models' pick · 11 of 16 for this bet, 5 for others

Our football predictions so far: 99 won · 74 lost · 6 void · +4.43 units All results

Why this bet All odds

likely score

2:19%odds 8.72

1:1 8%3:1 8%2:0 8%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

Match odds

last line update 19.10 12:09

result11.37X5.4827.07

total 3.5O1.73U2.12

both to scoreyes1.44no2.63

double chance1X1.10121.14X23.14

handicapH1 −1.51.91H2 +1.51.92

Over the day the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.

abbreviations

1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
O/U — over/under total goals
H1/H2 — home/away handicap
1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw

Line movementOur bet — Leipzig −1.5: 1.91 → 1.91 since we publishedView

This market has barely moved: Leipzig −1.5 1.91 → 1.91, Elversberg +1.5 1.92 → 1.92.

Leipzig −1.51.91 → 1.91our betElversberg +1.51.92 → 1.92

Price changes

Price changes in the Handicap −1.5 market
When	Leipzig −1.5 · our bet	Elversberg +1.5
19 Oct · 08:55	We published Leipzig −1.5 handicap at 1.91
18 Oct · 15:33	1.91opened	1.92opened

10 snapshots · the prices have not changed

The largest group of AI models went for Leipzig −1.5. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: Leipzig −2 and Leipzig −2.5. 3 more went for over 2.5 goals. The other 2 chose a bet each: a total-goals bet and 'both to score — no'.

9 of 16H1 (−1.5)our betodds 1.91ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeekGeminiKimiGLMMistralXiaomi MiMoNemotron Ultra
1 of 16H1 (−2)same directionodds 2.42Dots3-Note
1 of 16H1 (−2.5)same directionodds 2.96MiniMax
3 of 16O 2.5odds 1.26GrokDeepSeek FlashNemotron Super
1 of 16O 3.5odds 1.73Sonar
1 of 16BTTS noodds 2.63Qwen

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:55 UTC

The gap between Leipzig at home and Leipzig on the road is enormous this autumn, and this one is at the Red Bull Arena. Three home games have brought three wins, 14 goals scored and nothing conceded, and against a run like that the Leipzig -1.5 handicap looks like a working bet. Elversberg are far more modest away from home: 1.3 goals a game, and in two of their three away trips they failed to score at all. The hosts are priced at 1.37, around 69% for a home win, and the odds have not moved at all in the past day.

Where we could be wrong

There is a case for caution. Elversberg sit sixth with 10 points, one more than Leipzig, and they have already kept a clean sheet on their travels once, so they know how to dig in. A European week is coming up for the hosts, rotation is possible with that sort of schedule, and an xG of 2.09 against 1.94 hints that scorelines like those of the first home games are far from a weekly occurrence. Even so, we're backing the Leipzig -1.5 handicap.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published 19 October 2026 · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches
Season averages
Head to head
League table
Goals by minute

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first

Leipzig

Recent matches: Leipzig
Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
17.10	Bayern Munich	A	1:6xG 0.9–3.5	L
13.10	PSVChampions League	H	1:0xG 2.1–1.4	W
10.10	Eintracht Frankfurt	H	6:0xG 4.0–1.5	W
20.09	Bayer Leverkusen	A	0:2xG 1.0–2.3	L
13.09	Hamburg	H	5:0xG 2.4–1.1	W
10.09	ComoChampions League	A	1:4	L

Elversberg

Recent matches: Elversberg
Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
17.10	Augsburg	H	4:3xG 3.7–3.5	W
10.10	Union Berlin	A	0:1xG 0.2–1.1	L
24.09	Waldhof Mannheimclub friendly	A	1:2	L
20.09	Schalke	A	0:0xG 1.0–1.0	D
13.09	Bayern Munich	H	1:2xG 0.9–2.8	L
05.09	Borussia Mönchengladbach	A	4:3xG 2.3–2.4	W

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match

for / against			Bundesliga
goals	3 / 1	1.6 / 1.6	1.9
xG	2.6 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.8	1.8
shots	19 / 14.6	9.6 / 21.2	15.8
shots on target	7 / 6	4 / 4.6	5.5
corners	6 / 6	3.6 / 7.2	5.4
fouls	10.6 / 13.2	11 / 13	11.3
yellow cards	1.2 / 1.6	1.8 / 1.6	1.7
matches over 2.5	80%	60%
both scored	20%	60%
clean sheets	60%	20%
failed to score	20%	40%
home / away
goals	4.7 / 0	1.3 / 1.3
average total	4.7	2.7
matches over 2.5	100%	33%
both scored	0%	33%

Leipzig score more than the league average: 3 vs 1.9
Elversberg shoot less often than the league average: 9.6 shots vs 15.8
"home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Leipzig, away games only for Elversberg

Head to head

last 2

1–0–1Leipzig wins · draws · Elversberg wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
Match	Score	Date	Competition
Leipzig vs Elversberg	2:0	02.03.14	3. Liga
Elversberg vs Leipzig	1:0	07.09.13	3. Liga

both scored in 0 of the last 2 meetings
over 2.5 goals — in 0 of 2

League table

League standings: Bundesliga
#	Team	P	W-D-L	GF–GA	Pts	Form
5	Mainz	6	3-1-2	14–10	10	WLWLW
6	Elversberg	6	3-1-2	12–11	10	WLDLW
7	Leipzig	6	3-0-3	16–11	9	LWLWL
8	Werder Bremen	6	2-3-1	12–12	9	WDWDD

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right

Goals by minute

league season