17 Oct
Schalke vs Mainz: AI prediction and betting pick
On 17 October, Schalke host Mainz. The AI models' pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.61: two directions drew level, so we took the one closer to the market line.
- Bundesliga, matchday 6 of 34
- +14°, drizzle
- VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Over 2.5 goals
1.61AI models' pick · 6 of 15 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
Match odds
Over 2 days the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Over 2.5: 1.61 → 1.61 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Over 2.5 1.61 → 1.61, Under 2.5 2.33 → 2.33.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 · our bet | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| We published over 2.5 goals at 1.61 | ||
| 1.61opened | 2.33opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The vote split evenly: 6 each for over 2.5 goals and for a Mainz win. The other 3 chose a bet each: double chance and a total-goals bet.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 13.10 at 12:37 UTC
Mainz have scored nine and conceded three in their two away matches this season, and both games went past two goals. Across five rounds they have 13 scored and 10 conceded — nothing quiet has happened with them on the pitch yet. Schalke have not scored at home at all and shoot almost half as often as their opponents, with 35.3% possession, so the hosts are the ones who will have to chase the game, and a Schalke side pushing forward leaves space for the visitors. The market rates over 2.5 goals at 59%, and the prices have drifted towards Mainz over the past two days.
Where we could be wrong
The counter-argument is real: both of Schalke's home games finished 0-0, and the previous meetings have produced 0-0 as well, in March 2021 and February 2020. Mainz are far more cautious at home than on the road, at 1.3 goals a game, and drizzle and wind by kick-off will not help the passing. Even so, our pick is over 2.5 goals in this Bundesliga fixture at 1.61.
- Two directions drew the same number of AI models: the bet was taken from the one priced closer to the line.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Schalkeno absences listed
Mainzno absences listed
managers: Miron Muslic · Urs Fischer · main formations this season: 3-4-2-1 · 3-5-2
Recent matches
Schalke| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | Freiburg | A | 1:2xG 0.3–1.1 | L |
| 03.10 | Austria Lustenauclub friendly | A | 1:0 | W |
| 24.09 | Rot-weiss Oberhausenclub friendly | A | 5:2 | W |
| 20.09 | Elversberg | H | 0:0xG 1.0–1.0 | D |
| 11.09 | Union Berlin | A | 3:1xG 2.5–1.9 | W |
| 05.09 | Bayern Munich | H | 0:0xG 0.2–1.9 | D |
Mainz| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Bayer Leverkusen | H | 3:4xG 2.9–1.7 | L |
| 03.10 | Waldhof Mannheimclub friendly | A | 3:0 | W |
| 19.09 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | A | 4:3xG 2.8–3.2 | W |
| 12.09 | Eintracht Frankfurt | H | 1:3xG 2.1–2.0 | L |
| 06.09 | Hamburg | A | 5:0 | W |
| 29.08 | Paderborn | H | 0:0xG 1.2–0.7 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Bundesliga |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 0.8 / 1.2 | 2.6 / 2 | 1.9 |
| xG | 1.1 / 1.9 | 2.4 / 1.6 | 1.8 |
| shots | 10.4 / 16 | 19.2 / 13.2 | 15.8 |
| shots on target | 3.6 / 6.2 | 6 / 4 | 5.5 |
| corners | 2.8 / 7.4 | 5.6 / 4 | 5.4 |
| fouls | 8.8 / 9.8 | 12.6 / 11 | 11.3 |
| yellow cards | 1 / 1.8 | 2.4 / 2.4 | 1.7 |
| matches over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| both scored | 40% | 60% | |
| clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 0 / 0 | 4.5 / 1.5 | |
| average total | 0 | 6 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| both scored | 0% | 50% | |
- Schalke score less than the league average: 0.8 vs 1.9
- Mainz score more than the league average: 2.6 vs 1.9
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Schalke, away games only for Mainz
Head to head
6–3–1Schalke wins · draws · Mainz wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz vs Schalke | 2:3 | 05.05.23 | |
| Schalke vs Mainz | 1:0 | 09.11.22 | |
| Schalke vs Mainz | 0:0 | 05.03.21 | |
| Mainz vs Schalke | 2:2 | 07.11.20 | |
| Mainz vs Schalke | 0:0 | 16.02.20 | |
| Schalke vs Mainz | 2:1 | 20.09.19 | |
| Mainz vs Schalke | 3:0 | 23.02.19 | |
| Schalke vs Mainz | 1:0 | 29.09.18 | |
| Mainz vs Schalke | 0:1 | 09.03.18 | |
| Schalke vs Mainz | 2:0 | 20.10.17 |
- both scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 4 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2-2-1 | 10–10 | 8 | DWDWL |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2-1-2 | 13–10 | 7 | LWLWD |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2-1-2 | 8–8 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 12 | Hamburg | 5 | 2-0-3 | 5–15 | 6 | WWLLL |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1-2-2 | 4–6 | 5 | LDWDL |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1-2-2 | 9–16 | 5 | LDWLD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1501
- 16-3021
- 31-4500
- 46-6010
- 61-7500
- 76-9014
- 0-1504
- 16-3020
- 31-4541
- 46-6013
- 61-7501
- 76-9061
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
