17 Oct
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: AI prediction and betting pick
On 17 October, Union Berlin host Borussia Dortmund. The AI models' pick is Borussia Dortmund −1 handicap at 2.07: 6 of 15 models chose it, 6 more went in the same direction.
- Bundesliga, matchday 6 of 34
- +14°, mostly clear
- Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
published UTC
AI models' pick: Borussia Dortmund −1 handicap
2.07Asian handicap: the bet wins if Borussia Dortmund win by two goals or more; a one-goal win returns the stake.
AI models' pick · 6 of 15 on this bet · 6 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
Match odds
Over 2 days the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Borussia Dortmund −1: 2.07 → 2.07 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Union Berlin +1 1.77 → 1.77, Borussia Dortmund −1 2.07 → 2.07.
Price changes
| When | Union Berlin +1 | Borussia Dortmund −1 · our bet |
|---|---|---|
| We published Borussia Dortmund −1 handicap at 2.07 | ||
| 1.77first snapshot | 2.07first snapshot | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for Borussia Dortmund −1. 6 more chose close bets in the same direction: a Borussia Dortmund win and Borussia Dortmund −1.5. The other 3 chose a bet each: total-goals bets and both teams to score.
- 6 of 15H2 (−1)our betodds 2.07ChatGPTKimiQwen
GLMMiniMaxNemotron Super - 4 of 152same directionodds 1.65
GeminiDeepSeek Flash
SonarXiaomi MiMo - 2 of 15H2 (−1.5)same directionodds 2.63DeepSeekMistral
- 1 of 15O 2.5odds 1.47Nemotron Ultra
- 1 of 15BTTSodds 1.50
Grok - 1 of 15O 3odds 1.75Claude
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 13.10 at 12:23 UTC
Union Berlin have now gone three matches without scoring against Borussia Dortmund: they lost 0-3 in Berlin in January 2026, and before that Dortmund won 3-0 and 6-0 in Dortmund in August and February 2025. Across ten previous meetings the Berlin side have two wins and eight defeats.
The gap in the table is just as wide. Union sit 16th on four points, with five goals scored in five rounds and 17 conceded, while Dortmund are second on 13 points and have scored 11 and conceded four in their last five games. On the road they average two goals scored and one conceded, and they have kept a clean sheet in half of their away matches; the market rates their chance of a win at 57%, with odds of 1.65.
Where we could be wrong
At home Union do find the net: in two of three games at An der Alten Försterei there were goals at both ends. We're backing the Borussia Dortmund -1 handicap at 2.07, and the risk is clear — a one-goal away win is no longer enough to land the bet.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Union Berlinno absences listed
Borussia Dortmundno absences listed
managers: Mauro Lustrinelli · Niko Kovac · main formations this season: 4-3-1-2 · 3-4-2-1
Recent matches
Union Berlin| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Elversberg | H | 1:0xG 1.1–0.2 | W |
| 26.09 | HNK Rijekaclub friendly | A | 1:0 | W |
| 18.09 | Bayern Munich | A | 0:7xG 0.3–3.7 | L |
| 11.09 | Schalke | H | 1:3xG 1.9–2.5 | L |
| 05.09 | Bayer Leverkusen | A | 0:4xG 0.4–3.1 | L |
| 29.08 | Eintracht Frankfurt | H | 3:3xG 1.8–1.5 | D |
Borussia Dortmund| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09.10 | Werder Bremen | H | 2:2xG 2.4–1.1 | D |
| 19.09 | Stuttgart | A | 1:0xG 1.3–0.9 | W |
| 12.09 | Paderborn | H | 3:0xG 1.8–0.5 | W |
| 08.09 | VillarrealChampions League | H | 3:2 | W |
| 05.09 | Hoffenheim | A | 3:2xG 2.0–1.2 | W |
| 01.09 | HEBCDFB Pokal | A | 5:0 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Bundesliga |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1 / 3.4 | 2.2 / 0.8 | 1.9 |
| xG | 1.1 / 2.2 | 1.8 / 1 | 1.8 |
| shots | 13.2 / 16.4 | 15.8 / 11.8 | 15.8 |
| shots on target | 5.2 / 8 | 5.8 / 3.6 | 5.5 |
| corners | 3.8 / 6 | 4.8 / 4.6 | 5.4 |
| fouls | 11.4 / 10.4 | 11 / 11.6 | 11.3 |
| yellow cards | 2.4 / 1.8 | 2.4 / 1.8 | 1.7 |
| matches over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| both scored | 40% | 40% | |
| clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1.7 / 2 | 2 / 1 | |
| average total | 3.7 | 3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| both scored | 67% | 50% | |
- Union Berlin score less than the league average: 1 vs 1.9
- Borussia Dortmund score more than the league average: 2.2 vs 1.9
- Borussia Dortmund: 4 wins in the last 5 league games
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Union Berlin, away games only for Borussia Dortmund
Head to head
2–0–8Union Berlin wins · draws · Borussia Dortmund wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund | 0:3 | 24.01.26 | |
| Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin | 3:0 | 31.08.25 | |
| Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin | 6:0 | 22.02.25 | |
| Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund | 2:1 | 05.10.24 | |
| Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund | 0:2 | 02.03.24 | |
| Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin | 4:2 | 07.10.23 | |
| Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin | 2:1 | 08.04.23 | |
| Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund | 2:0 | 16.10.22 | |
| Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund | 0:3 | 13.02.22 | |
| Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin | 4:2 | 19.09.21 |
- both scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 8 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4-1-0 | 14–4 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4-1-0 | 11–4 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Bayern Munich | 5 | 3-2-0 | 16–4 | 11 | DWWDW |
| 15 | Paderborn | 5 | 1-1-3 | 3–7 | 4 | LWLLD |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1-1-3 | 5–17 | 4 | WLLLD |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1-0-4 | 9–13 | 3 | LLWLL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1513
- 16-3003
- 31-4502
- 46-6003
- 61-7504
- 76-9042
- 0-1520
- 16-3000
- 31-4511
- 46-6001
- 61-7530
- 76-9043
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
