17 Oct
Werder Bremen vs Paderborn: AI prediction and betting pick
On 17 October, Werder Bremen host Paderborn. The AI models' pick is Werder Bremen to win at 1.78: 6 of 15 models chose it, 3 more went in the same direction.
- Bundesliga, matchday 6 of 34
- +14°, mostly clear, wind 15 km/h
- Weserstadion, Bremen
published UTC
AI models' pick: Werder Bremen to win
1.78AI models' pick · 6 of 15 on this bet · 3 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
Match odds
Over 2 days the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Werder Bremen: 1.78 → 1.78 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Werder Bremen 1.78 → 1.78, Draw 3.95 → 3.96, Paderborn 4.00 → 4.00.
Price changes
| When | Werder Bremen · our bet | Draw | Paderborn |
|---|---|---|---|
| We published a Werder Bremen win at 1.78 | |||
| 1.78 | 3.96+0.01 | 4.00 | |
| 1.78opened | 3.95opened | 4.00opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for a Werder Bremen win. 3 more chose close bets in the same direction: Werder Bremen −1. 4 more went for over 2.5 goals. The other 2 went for at least one side failing to score.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 13.10 at 12:23 UTC
Werder Bremen have the better of this fixture's history: four wins and three draws from nine previous meetings, plus a 1-0 win in Paderborn in the German Cup in October 2024. At home this season they have won both matches and scored three goals in each. Paderborn have not scored at all in their two away games and manage only 2.8 shots on target per match. Five rounds in, the table reads the same way: 8 points and seventh place for Werder, 4 points and fifteenth for the visitors, who have three goals scored and seven conceded in their last five matches.
Where we could be wrong
There is a caveat. Both teams have scored in Werder's games at the Weserstadion, and on expected goals across the season the home side trail their opponents, 1.35 to 1.85. Paderborn have already taken three points on their own ground, so a disciplined defensive display could be enough to see them hold out for a draw. Even so, our pick is a Werder Bremen win at 1.78.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Werder Bremenno absences listed
Paderbornno absences listed
managers: Daniel Thioune · Ralf Kettemann · main formations this season: 4-2-3-1 · 3-1-4-2
Recent matches
Werder Bremen| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09.10 | Borussia Dortmund | A | 2:2xG 1.1–2.4 | D |
| 02.10 | Twenteclub friendly | A | 0:7 | L |
| 19.09 | Augsburg | H | 3:2xG 2.8–1.1 | W |
| 12.09 | Köln | A | 1:1 | D |
| 05.09 | Leipzig | H | 3:1xG 0.9–1.5 | W |
| 30.08 | Freiburg | A | 1:4xG 0.5–2.4 | L |
Paderborn| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Stuttgart | H | 0:2xG 2.0–2.5 | L |
| 30.09 | DC Unitedclub friendly | A | 1:0 | W |
| 20.09 | Hoffenheim | H | 3:1xG 0.7–1.5 | W |
| 12.09 | Borussia Dortmund | A | 0:3xG 0.5–1.8 | L |
| 05.09 | Freiburg | H | 0:1xG 0.8–1.2 | L |
| 29.08 | Mainz | A | 0:0xG 0.7–1.2 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Bundesliga |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 2 / 2 | 0.6 / 1.4 | 1.9 |
| xG | 1.3 / 1.7 | 0.9 / 1.6 | 1.8 |
| shots | 13.2 / 16.2 | 14.2 / 18.4 | 15.8 |
| shots on target | 6 / 5.8 | 2.8 / 5.4 | 5.5 |
| corners | 3.4 / 6.4 | 4.6 / 6.4 | 5.4 |
| fouls | 12.2 / 10.6 | 9.8 / 10.8 | 11.3 |
| yellow cards | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.7 |
| matches over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | |
| both scored | 100% | 20% | |
| clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| failed to score | 0% | 80% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 3 / 1.5 | 0 / 1.5 | |
| average total | 4.5 | 1.5 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| both scored | 100% | 0% | |
- Werder Bremen shoot less often than the league average: 13.2 shots vs 15.8
- Paderborn score less than the league average: 0.6 vs 1.9
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Werder Bremen, away games only for Paderborn
Head to head
4–3–2Werder Bremen wins · draws · Paderborn wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen vs Paderborn | 2:2 | 08.08.26 | club friendly |
| Paderborn vs Werder Bremen | 0:1 | 30.10.24 | DFB Pokal |
| Paderborn vs Werder Bremen | 2:2 | 19.10.22 | DFB Pokal |
| Paderborn vs Werder Bremen | 3:4 | 22.01.22 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Werder Bremen vs Paderborn | 1:4 | 15.08.21 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Paderborn vs Werder Bremen | 1:5 | 13.06.20 | |
| Werder Bremen vs Paderborn | 0:1 | 08.12.19 | |
| Paderborn vs Werder Bremen | 2:2 | 26.04.15 | |
| Werder Bremen vs Paderborn | 4:0 | 29.11.14 |
- both scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 7 of 9
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2-2-1 | 13–8 | 8 | DLDWW |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2-2-1 | 10–10 | 8 | DWDWL |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2-1-2 | 13–10 | 7 | LWLWD |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1-2-2 | 9–16 | 5 | LDWLD |
| 15 | Paderborn | 5 | 1-1-3 | 3–7 | 4 | LWLLD |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1-1-3 | 5–17 | 4 | WLLLD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1511
- 16-3002
- 31-4501
- 46-6003
- 61-7530
- 76-9063
- 0-1501
- 16-3012
- 31-4510
- 46-6001
- 61-7510
- 76-9003
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
