20 Oct
Liverpool vs Villarreal: AI prediction and betting pick
On 20 October, Liverpool host Villarreal. The AI models' pick is both teams to score at 1.62: 10 of 15 models chose it.
- Champions League, matchday 3 of 8
- +10°, drizzle
- Anfield, Liverpool
published UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.62AI models' pick · 10 of 15 for this bet, 5 for others
Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
likely score
2:1 10%2:0 9%1:0 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 9 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 3 days a Villarreal win shortened from 6.12 to 5.81 — money is coming in on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.62 → 1.63 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Yes 1.62 → 1.63, No 2.19 → 2.17.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| We published both teams score at 1.62 | ||
| 1.63 | 2.17−0.01 | |
| 1.63+0.01 | 2.18−0.01 | |
| 1.62opened | 2.19opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for both teams to score. 2 more went for Liverpool −1.5. The other 3 chose a bet each: a total-goals bet, a Liverpool win and a Liverpool handicap.
- 10 of 15BTTSour betodds 1.62ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeek
Gemini
GrokQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMistralXiaomi MiMo - 2 of 15H1 (−1.5)odds 2.27KimiMiniMax
- 1 of 15O 2.5odds 1.50
Sonar - 1 of 151odds 1.52Nemotron Super
- 1 of 15H1 (−1)odds 1.77
Dots3-Note
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 17.10 at 10:01 UTC
Liverpool host Villarreal in the Champions League with a clean sheet a genuine possibility: the hosts have not conceded in a quarter of their home matches at Anfield, and Villarreal have failed to score in every fifth away game. Goals at both ends have been more frequent in those roles, though — 68% of Liverpool's home games and 63% of Villarreal's trips. This season Liverpool have scored 12 and conceded 8 in six matches, Villarreal 12 and 9, with xG of 2.11 against 1.77. Both sides score readily and both let goals in, and the market leans the same way. The price on a home win has drifted from 1.47 to 1.52 over two days.
Where we could be wrong
The previous meetings at Anfield tell the opposite story. Liverpool won 2-0 in April 2022 and 3-0 in May 2016, and on both nights Villarreal went home without a goal. The home and away numbers were also gathered from the back end of last season, when both squads looked different, and in European football the Spaniards know how to sit deep and play on the counter. Even so, our pick is both teams to score at 1.62.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Liverpool| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10 | LASK | A | 6:3xG 3.3–2.1 | W |
| 11.10 | Manchester CityPremier League | H | 0:3xG 0.0–0.0 | L |
| 20.09 | BournemouthPremier League | A | 1:0xG 1.6–0.8 | W |
| 15.09 | Tottenham HotspurEFL Cup | H | 3:1 | W |
| 12.09 | FulhamPremier League | H | 0:0xG 1.3–0.7 | D |
| 09.09 | Atlético Madrid | H | 2:1xG 1.6–0.9 | W |
Villarreal| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10 | Napoli | H | 3:1xG 1.2–1.7 | W |
| 10.10 | Real MadridLaLiga | A | 0:1xG 0.6–1.5 | L |
| 20.09 | LevanteLaLiga | H | 3:1xG 4.3–0.5 | W |
| 17.09 | MálagaLaLiga | A | 3:1xG 3.3–0.6 | W |
| 14.09 | Real BetisLaLiga | H | 1:2xG 1.9–3.5 | L |
| 08.09 | Borussia Dortmund | A | 2:3xG 1.3–2.8 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
3–0–1Liverpool wins · draws · Villarreal wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal vs Liverpool | 2:3 | 03.05.22 | |
| Liverpool vs Villarreal | 2:0 | 27.04.22 | |
| Liverpool vs Villarreal | 3:0 | 05.05.16 | Europa League |
| Villarreal vs Liverpool | 1:0 | 28.04.16 | Europa League |
- both scored in 1 of the last 4 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 4
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Stuttgart | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6–1 | 6 | WW |
| 5 | Liverpool | 2 | 2-0-0 | 8–4 | 6 | WW |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5–1 | 6 | WW |
| 13 | Manchester United | 2 | 1-0-1 | 4–2 | 3 | WL |
| 14 | Villarreal | 2 | 1-0-1 | 5–4 | 3 | LW |
| 15 | Atlético Madrid | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3–2 | 3 | LW |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
