31 Oct
Lyon vs Angers: AI betting tips and pick
On 31 October, Lyon host Angers. The AI models' pick is Lyon −1.5 handicap at 2.11.
- Ligue 1, matchday 9 of 34
- +7°, overcast
- Groupama Stadium, Lyon
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Lyon −1.5 handicap
2.11The market prices this option at 45%
Now 2.09 · 2.11 when published
AI models' pick · 10 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 6 chose others
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
likely score
1:1 10%2:1 10%1:0 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 2 days an Angers win drifted from 6.92 to 7.07 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Lyon −1.5: 2.11 → 2.09 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (Lyon −1.5 handicap) has shortened from 2.11 to 2.09: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Lyon −1.5 · our bet | Angers +1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.09−0.02 | 1.76+0.02 | |
| We published Lyon −1.5 handicap at 2.11 | ||
| 2.11opened | 1.74opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for Lyon −1.5. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: Lyon −1. 6 more went for over 2.5 goals.
- 8 of 16H1 (−1.5)our betodds 2.11ChatGPTDeepSeek
GeminiKimiQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMistral - 2 of 16H1 (−1)same directionodds 1.61MiniMax
Sonar - 6 of 16O 2.5odds 1.57Claude
GrokXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-NoteNemotron SuperNemotron Ultra
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 25.10 at 14:42 UTC
This analysis was written on 25.10: the teams have played since, and the points, games or position in the table below have moved on.
The Ligue 1 leaders host one of the division's poorest travellers, and the case for the Lyon -1.5 handicap rests on the home numbers: three wins in four, with 2.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. A straight home win is priced at just 1.39, so the real question is the margin, and at 2.11 our pick is the two-goal handicap. Angers sit 15th on seven points, scoring 1.3 and shipping two per away game, and across the last five rounds they have six goals for and 12 against. The head-to-head record is just as one-sided: eight wins for Lyon in ten meetings, with one draw and one defeat, and the recent samples fit — 2-0 in May 2025 and 3-0 away in December 2024.
Where we could be wrong
The counter-argument is real enough. These same sides played out a goalless draw in April, and Lyon do not run up big scores every week: they have kept a clean sheet in only one of their four home matches, with visitors finding the net in three of them. The fixture list does not help either. Fourteen official games in three competitions are already behind them, and with another European week coming up, part of the first choice eleven could be given a rest.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Lyon| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10 | Paris Saint-Germain | A | 0:2 | L |
| 22.10 | HoffenheimEuropa League | A | 0:3xG 0.9–2.1 | L |
| 18.10 | Nice | H | 2:1xG 1.4–0.7 | W |
| 15.10 | Crystal PalaceEuropa League | H | 3:2xG 2.1–1.6 | W |
| 09.10 | Lens | A | 1:2xG 1.0–1.3 | L |
| 19.09 | Rennes | H | 4:0xG 3.1–1.4 | W |
Angers| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.10 | Lorient | H | 0:0 | D |
| 18.10 | Marseille | H | 2:5xG 2.1–2.8 | L |
| 10.10 | Brest | A | 1:5xG 1.4–3.8 | L |
| 19.09 | Troyes | H | 2:0xG 2.3–1.0 | W |
| 12.09 | Le Havre | A | 0:0 | D |
| 06.09 | Rennes | H | 1:2 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ligue 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.6 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 1.9 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.5 / 1.7 | 1.6 |
| shots | 12.1 / 12.5 | 12.9 / 16.4 | 13.4 |
| shots on target | 4.9 / 4.9 | 3.3 / 5.9 | 4.7 |
| corners | 4.3 / 6.4 | 6.4 / 5.9 | 4.6 |
| fouls | 11.4 / 13.4 | 11.1 / 12.5 | 12.3 |
| yellow cards | 1.4 / 2 | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1.8 |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| both scored | 50% | 50% | |
| clean sheets | 38% | 38% | |
| failed to score | 25% | 38% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 2.5 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 2 | |
| average total | 3.3 | 3.3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 75% | 67% | |
| both scored | 75% | 67% | |
- Angers score less than the league average: 1.1 vs 1.5
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Lyon, away games only for Angers
Head to head
8–1–1Lyon wins · draws · Angers wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angers vs Lyon | 0:0 | 05.04.26 | |
| Lyon vs Angers | 1:0 | 19.09.25 | |
| Lyon vs Angers | 2:0 | 17.05.25 | |
| Angers vs Lyon | 0:3 | 07.12.24 | |
| Angers vs Lyon | 1:3 | 25.02.23 | |
| Lyon vs Angers | 5:0 | 03.09.22 | |
| Lyon vs Angers | 3:2 | 03.04.22 | |
| Angers vs Lyon | 3:0 | 15.08.21 | |
| Lyon vs Angers | 3:0 | 11.04.21 | |
| Angers vs Lyon | 0:1 | 22.11.20 |
- both scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 6 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Monaco | 8 | 4-3-1 | 11–7 | 15 | DWDLD |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 4-2-2 | 13–7 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 6 | Paris | 8 | 4-2-2 | 13–9 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 13 | Brest | 8 | 2-3-3 | 14–12 | 9 | LLWDL |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | 2-2-4 | 9–15 | 8 | DWLLD |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | 1-4-3 | 11–16 | 7 | DWLLD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1510
- 16-3021
- 31-4532
- 46-6020
- 61-7511
- 76-9041
- 0-1523
- 16-3012
- 31-4525
- 46-6022
- 61-7520
- 76-9012
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
