31 Oct
Bournemouth vs Leeds United: AI betting tips and pick
On 31 October, Bournemouth host Leeds United. The AI models' pick is Bournemouth to win at 2.17; Leeds United are winless in 4.
- Premier League, matchday 9 of 38
- +14°, clear
- Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Bournemouth to win
2.17The market prices this option at 43%
Now 2.15 · 2.17 when published
AI models' pick · 12 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 1 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
likely score
2:1 9%1:0 8%2:0 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 7 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 1 day a draw shortened from 3.43 to 3.38 — money is coming in on the draw.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Bournemouth: 2.17 → 2.15 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (a Bournemouth win) has shortened from 2.17 to 2.15: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Bournemouth · our bet | Draw | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.15−0.01 | 3.38−0.03 | 3.36+0.05 | |
| 25 Oct – 26 Oct · no snapshots for 18 h | |||
| 2.16−0.01 | 3.41−0.02 | 3.31−0.01 | |
| We published a Bournemouth win at 2.17 | |||
| 2.17opened | 3.43opened | 3.32opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for a Bournemouth win. 3 more chose close bets in the same direction: Bournemouth draw no bet and Bournemouth not losing. The other 3 chose a bet each: both teams to score, double chance and a total-goals bet.
- 10 of 161our betodds 2.17ChatGPT
Gemini
GrokKimiQwenDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxXiaomi MiMoNemotron SuperNemotron Ultra - 2 of 16DNB 1same directionodds 1.58
GLM
Sonar - 1 of 161Xsame directionodds 1.33
Dots3-Note - 1 of 16BTTSodds 1.66Mistral
- 1 of 16X2odds 1.68Claude
- 1 of 16O 2.5odds 1.84DeepSeek
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 25.10 at 16:37 UTC
This analysis was written on 25.10: the teams have played since, and the points, games or position in the table below have moved on.
Bournemouth's home league return is modest — one win, two draws and one defeat, with 1.3 goals scored and one conceded per game. Across all competitions the picture is much healthier: 24 goals for, 14 against, 17.2 shots a match and xG of 2.05 against 0.98. Leeds United manage 12.7 shots and a far slimmer xG edge, 1.51 to 1.43. Away from home the visitors average exactly one goal at each end, and both teams scored in two thirds of their away matches, so their defence has not looked watertight this season. The prices give the hosts a 43% chance with Leeds some way back, and the odds have not moved at all in the past day.
Where we could be wrong
The counter-argument sits in the record between them. In eight previous meetings Bournemouth have just two wins against two draws and four defeats, and the last two finished 2-2. Leeds are also the higher side in the table, ninth with 10 points against 13th for the hosts, and the draw is rated at 28% — a real share of the outcomes. Even so, the shot and xG numbers point firmly one way, and our pick is Bournemouth to win at 2.17.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Bournemouth| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.10 | Manchester United | A | 3:0xG 2.2–1.0 | W |
| 22.10 | MilanEuropa League | H | 3:0xG 3.2–0.2 | W |
| 18.10 | Sunderland | H | 2:0xG 4.4–0.1 | W |
| 15.10 | Sturm GrazEuropa League | H | 3:0xG 2.6–0.4 | W |
| 10.10 | Chelsea | A | 1:5xG 1.4–1.1 | L |
| 20.09 | Liverpool | H | 0:1xG 0.8–1.6 | L |
Leeds United| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.10 | Sunderland | A | 0:0 | D |
| 18.10 | Manchester United | H | 1:1xG 1.5–0.9 | D |
| 10.10 | Arsenal | A | 1:2xG 0.6–2.3 | L |
| 20.09 | Crystal Palace | H | 0:0xG 1.3–1.1 | D |
| 14.09 | Newcastle United | H | 4:1 | W |
| 09.09 | ChelseaEFL Cup | A | 3:6 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | EPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.5 / 1.6 | 1.1 / 0.8 | 1.4 |
| xG | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.3 / 1.3 | 1.4 |
| shots | 14.5 / 10.5 | 11.9 / 14.3 | 13.6 |
| shots on target | 5 / 3.9 | 4 / 4.3 | 4.3 |
| corners | 4.6 / 4 | 4.1 / 4.1 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 13.5 / 12.1 | 12.9 / 11.6 | 11.6 |
| yellow cards | 2.8 / 1.8 | 1.9 / 2.3 | 2 |
| matches over 2.5 | 63% | 25% | |
| both scored | 63% | 63% | |
| clean sheets | 25% | 38% | |
| failed to score | 13% | 25% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1.3 / 1 | 0.8 / 0.8 | |
| average total | 2.3 | 1.5 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| both scored | 50% | 50% | |
- Leeds United score less than the league average: 1.1 vs 1.4
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Bournemouth, away games only for Leeds United
Head to head
2–2–4Bournemouth wins · draws · Leeds United wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth vs Leeds United | 2:2 | 22.04.26 | |
| Leeds United vs Bournemouth | 2:2 | 27.09.25 | |
| Bournemouth vs Leeds United | 4:1 | 30.04.23 | |
| Leeds United vs Bournemouth | 4:3 | 05.11.22 | |
| Leeds United vs Bournemouth | 1:0 | 20.01.15 | Championship |
| Bournemouth vs Leeds United | 1:3 | 16.09.14 | Championship |
| Bournemouth vs Leeds United | 4:1 | 25.03.14 | Championship |
| Leeds United vs Bournemouth | 2:1 | 01.10.13 | Championship |
- both scored in 7 of the last 8 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 7 of 8
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2-5-1 | 14–9 | 11 | DWDLD |
| 7 | Leeds United | 8 | 2-5-1 | 9–6 | 11 | WDLDD |
| 8 | Newcastle United | 8 | 3-2-3 | 12–14 | 11 | LWLLW |
| 12 | Ipswich Town | 8 | 3-1-4 | 12–16 | 10 | WLWLD |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2-3-3 | 12–13 | 9 | DLLWW |
| 14 | Tottenham Hotspur | 8 | 2-3-3 | 8–10 | 9 | DLDWW |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1522
- 16-3010
- 31-4523
- 46-6033
- 61-7502
- 76-9004
- 0-1510
- 16-3000
- 31-4523
- 46-6030
- 61-7503
- 76-9021
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
