1 Nov
Liverpool vs Arsenal: AI betting tips and pick
On 1 November, Liverpool host Arsenal. The AI models' pick is Arsenal to win at 2.19; Arsenal have won 3 in a row.
- Premier League, matchday 9 of 38
- +8°, overcast
- Anfield, Liverpool
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Arsenal to win
2.19The market prices this option at 43%
Now 2.27 · 2.19 when published
AI models' pick · 8 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 1 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
likely score
1:2 9%2:1 8%0:1 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 1 day an Arsenal win drifted from 2.19 to 2.27 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Arsenal: 2.19 → 2.27 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (an Arsenal win) has drifted from 2.19 to 2.27: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Liverpool | Draw | Arsenal · our bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.02−0.02 | 3.45−0.05 | 2.27+0.03 | |
| 25 Oct – 26 Oct · no snapshots for 18 h | |||
| 3.04−0.13 | 3.50−0.04 | 2.24+0.05 | |
| We published an Arsenal win at 2.19 | |||
| 3.17opened | 3.54opened | 2.19opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for an Arsenal win. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: Arsenal not losing and Arsenal draw no bet. 5 more went for under 2.5 goals. The other 2 chose a bet each: both teams to score and 'both to score — no'.
- 7 of 162our betodds 2.19
GrokKimiDeepSeek FlashMiniMax
Dots3-NoteNemotron SuperNemotron Ultra - 1 of 16X2same directionodds 1.36
Sonar - 1 of 16DNB 2same directionodds 1.61Xiaomi MiMo
- 5 of 16U 2.5odds 2.09ChatGPTClaude
GeminiQwen
GLM - 1 of 16BTTSodds 1.61Mistral
- 1 of 16BTTS noodds 2.22DeepSeek
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 25.10 at 16:37 UTC
Arsenal sit second with 21 points after eight matchdays, Liverpool fourth on 15, and the away record backs up the gap: three wins and one defeat on the road, 0.8 goals conceded per game and a clean sheet in three of those four trips. Liverpool have yet to win at home this season — two draws and a defeat in three matches, two goals scored and five conceded. Add four wins from Arsenal's last five across all competitions and the edge goes to the visitors. The market agrees, rating Arsenal at 43% against 30% for Liverpool, a rare case of the away side being favoured at Anfield.
Where we could be wrong
The doubt lies elsewhere: how much does Arsenal create on their travels? One goal a game behind a defence that tight points more towards a tight scoreline than a comfortable win, and the recent meetings say exactly that — 0-0 in January and Liverpool winning 1-0 in August 2025. Across ten meetings between the pair Liverpool have three wins and five draws, so the draw threatens this one as much as the hosts' strength on their own ground does. Even so, our pick is Arsenal to win at 2.19.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Liverpool| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.10 | Brighton & Hove Albion | H | 2:0xG 0.9–1.4 | W |
| 20.10 | VillarrealChampions League | H | 4:3xG 2.4–1.6 | W |
| 17.10 | Brentford | A | 2:1xG 1.5–0.9 | W |
| 14.10 | LASKChampions League | A | 6:3xG 3.3–2.1 | W |
| 11.10 | Manchester City | H | 0:3xG 0.9–1.3 | L |
| 20.09 | Bournemouth | A | 1:0xG 1.6–0.8 | W |
Arsenal| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.10 | Everton | H | 2:0xG 1.9–0.5 | W |
| 21.10 | Bayern MunichChampions League | A | 2:2xG 1.7–2.5 | D |
| 18.10 | Nottingham Forest | A | 1:0xG 1.1–0.8 | W |
| 13.10 | LilleChampions League | H | 3:0xG 1.7–0.3 | W |
| 10.10 | Leeds United | H | 2:1xG 2.3–0.6 | W |
| 19.09 | Brighton & Hove Albion | A | 0:3xG 1.6–1.3 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | EPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.4 / 1 | 1.6 / 0.6 | 1.4 |
| xG | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.7 / 0.8 | 1.4 |
| shots | 15.4 / 12.5 | 13.4 / 10.8 | 13.6 |
| shots on target | 4.9 / 3.1 | 4.4 / 3 | 4.3 |
| corners | 4.8 / 4.1 | 5.6 / 3.9 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 13.8 / 10.1 | 10.3 / 15.5 | 11.6 |
| yellow cards | 2.4 / 2.3 | 1.3 / 3.3 | 2 |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| both scored | 38% | 25% | |
| clean sheets | 50% | 63% | |
| failed to score | 25% | 13% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1 / 1.3 | 1 / 0.8 | |
| average total | 2.3 | 1.8 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| both scored | 25% | 0% | |
- Liverpool shoot more often than the league average: 15.4 shots vs 13.6
- Arsenal score more than the league average: 1.6 vs 1.4
- Arsenal: 3 league wins in a row
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Liverpool, away games only for Arsenal
Head to head
3–5–2Liverpool wins · draws · Arsenal wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal vs Liverpool | 0:0 | 08.01.26 | |
| Liverpool vs Arsenal | 1:0 | 31.08.25 | |
| Liverpool vs Arsenal | 2:2 | 11.05.25 | |
| Arsenal vs Liverpool | 2:2 | 27.10.24 | |
| Liverpool vs Arsenal | 2:1 | 31.07.24 | club friendly |
| Arsenal vs Liverpool | 3:1 | 04.02.24 | |
| Arsenal vs Liverpool | 0:2 | 07.01.24 | FA Cup |
| Liverpool vs Arsenal | 1:1 | 23.12.23 | |
| Liverpool vs Arsenal | 2:2 | 09.04.23 | |
| Arsenal vs Liverpool | 3:2 | 09.10.22 |
- both scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 6 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | 7-0-1 | 20–9 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7-0-1 | 13–5 | 21 | WLWWW |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 8 | 5-1-2 | 23–7 | 16 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 4-3-1 | 11–8 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4-1-3 | 17–15 | 13 | DLWWL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1521
- 16-3001
- 31-4511
- 46-6031
- 61-7523
- 76-9021
- 0-1521
- 16-3020
- 31-4502
- 46-6052
- 61-7530
- 76-9020
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
