Accumulator for 1 October: result

Germany vs Serbia tops the ladder at odds of 1.2 and a 77% chance. Germany have never beaten Serbia, but the visitors are without a point after two rounds, and a straight win is enough for this acca, with no need for the Germany -1.5 handicap from the main tip. Next comes over 1.5 goals in Denmark vs Portugal: last year’s meeting produced seven goals, so the two goals needed here do not even require both teams to score. The third leg is the Greece +1.5 handicap against Netherlands; the hosts have taken six points from six and play defensive football, so they only need to avoid losing by two or more goals rather than avoid defeat altogether.

Further down, the risk rises with less predictable fixtures. Republic of Ireland host group leaders Austria: instead of backing the visitors outright, the slip uses either team to win at 1.35 and 71%, even though Austria themselves are rated at just 44%. Israel vs Kosovo lowers the chance further: the away side are unbeaten in two head-to-heads, but rather than an outright win, Kosovo or draw is picked at 1.38 and 69% against an Israel team without a point after two rounds. The first three selections combined give a 40% chance at odds of 2.01, while all five together come to odds of 3.75 at a 20% chance.