FINISHED
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Wisła Płock 1:0: result and odds
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Wisła Płock finished 1:0; before kick-off the odds were 1.92 on a Jagiellonia Białystok win (having opened at 1.88), 3.58 on a Wisła Płock win and 3.63 on a draw. The AI models' pick was both teams to score at 1.57, and it lost.
- Referee: Damian Kos
- Ekstraklasa, matchday 12 of 34
- +13°, overcast, wind 21 km/h
- Stadion Miejski, Białystok
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.57The market prices this option at 59%
AI models' pick · 6 of 15 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 9 chose others
Under half back the betOur football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
2:1 9%1:0 7% — this score came in2:0 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 5 days a draw shortened from 3.71 to 3.63 — money is coming in on the draw.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.57 → 1.57 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Yes 1.57 → 1.57, No 2.25 → 2.28.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.57+0.01 | 2.28−0.01 | |
| 1.56+0.01 | 2.29−0.02 | |
| 1.55 | 2.31+0.02 | |
| 1.55−0.01 | 2.29+0.01 | |
| 1.56 | 2.28+0.01 | |
| 1.56 | 2.27−0.01 | |
| 1.56−0.01 | 2.28+0.03 | |
| We published both teams score at 1.57 | ||
| 1.57opened | 2.25opened | |
How the match went
Ousmane Sow broke the deadlock on 83 minutes and Jagiellonia Białystok beat Wisła Płock 1-0 after a goalless first half. Kajetan·Szmyt provided the assist; both had come on together on 59 minutes. A VAR check on 80 minutes had overturned a penalty, and the winner came three minutes after that. Our both-teams-to-score bet, backed at 1.57, went down: Wisła Płock never scored. The numbers leaned to the winners, with 1.81 xG against 1.01 and 21 shots to seven, though each side managed four on target. Possession was 53% to 47%. The market made Jagiellonia favourites, a home win on offer at 1.92, while a Wisła Płock win was 3.58. The exact score of 1-0 went off at 8.88. The over/under 3 goals line finished under.
- 13'on Fabian Hiszpański, off Sidnei·Tavares
- 58'on Olaf Kobacki, off Samuel Akere
- 59'on Kajetan·Szmyt, off Aleksandar·Cirkovic
- 59'on Ousmane Sow, off Jeremy Agbonifo
- 71'on Ferslev Anders Klynge, off Jesús Imaz
- 80'penalty overturned (VAR) · Dušan Stojinović
- 82'on Said Hamulic, off Patryk Kun
- 82'on Marcin Flis, off Jurica Pršir
- 82'on Deni Jurić, off Łukasz Sekulski
- 83'Ousmane Sow (Kajetan·Szmyt)1:0
- 89'on Dimitris Rallis, off Nik Prelec
- 89'on Eryk Kozlowski, off Sergio Lozano
| Jagiellonia Białystok | stat | Wisła Płock |
|---|---|---|
| 1.81 | expected goals (xG) | 1.01 |
| 21 | shots | 7 |
| 4 | on target | 4 |
| 53% | possession | 47% |
| 8 | corners | 3 |
| 16 | fouls | 12 |
| 4 | saves | 2 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Jagiellonia Białystok- 1M. Perchel — highest feed rating in the match8.0
- 23Guilherme Manuel Serrão Montóia7.4
- 3D. Stojinović6.9
- 44A. Konstantopoulos7.5
- 27Rodrigo Conceição7.1
- 21Sergio Lozano6.8
- 6T. Romanczuk7.2
- 32A. Ćirković6.3
- 11Jesús Imaz6.2
- 10J. Agbonifo6.7
- 99N. Prelec6.5
- 50S. Abramowicz
- 20B. Wdowik
- 72K. Jóźwiak
- 19A. Klyngeon 71'6.5
- 4Y. Kobayashi
- 70J. Kucharski
- 2C. Polak
- 9Dimitris Rallison 89'6.4
- 30O. Sowon 59'7.9
- 7K. Szmyton 59'7.5
- 5Bernardo Vital
- 85Eryk Kozlowskion 89'6.1
Wisła Płock- 12R. Leszczyński6.7
- 34Afonso Silva6.6
- 35M. Kamiński6.7
- 4M. Haglind-Sangré6.8
- 19D. Gallapeni6.3
- 5Sidnei Tavares6.2
- 18J. Pršir6.4
- 21Ž. Rogelj5.6
- 23P. Kun6.3
- 20Ł. Sekulski5.8
- 57S. Akere6.3
- 88K. Savvidīs
- 6K. Pomorski
- 44P. Misiak
- 91G. Kuchko
- 7O. Kobackion 58'6.1
- 9D. Jurićon 82'6.4
- 16F. Hiszpańskion 13'6.5
- 10S. Hamulićon 82'5.9
- 3M. Flison 82'6.0
- 26J. Burek
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on both teams to score — the bet lost. 5 more bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet lost. The other 4 chose other bets: double chance and a Wisła Płock handicap.
- 6 of 15BTTSour betodds 1.57Claude
GrokQwenDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxMistrallost - 5 of 15O 2.5odds 1.65DeepSeek
GeminiKimi
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultralost - 2 of 15X2odds 1.86ChatGPTXiaomi MiMolost
- 1 of 151Xodds 1.26
Sonarwon - 1 of 15DNB 2odds 2.68
GLMlost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 20.10 at 19:40 UTC
Nine previous meetings have given Jagiellonia Białystok three wins, two draws and four defeats, and goals at both ends have been the pattern: 1-2 in March 2026, 2-4 in April 2023, 1-1 in October 2022. At home Jagiellonia concede 1.8 goals a game, both teams have scored in 60% of those matches and the average is 2.8 goals. Wisła Płock's away numbers are higher still: three goals a game on average, over 2.5 goals landing in 67% of their trips, and a defence shipping two a game. A price of 1.57 is roughly where the market rates it, and our pick is both teams to score.
Where we could be wrong
There is a case against. Wisła have failed to score at all in a third of their away games, and Jagiellonia were kept off the scoresheet three times this season during a run of three straight defeats. A 22 km/h wind does not help precise work in the final third either.
- 6 of 15 AI models back this bet: it is the most common answer, but more than half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Jagiellonia Białystok| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10 | AnderlechtEuropa League | H | 0:3 | L |
| 18.10 | Zagłębie Lubin | A | 0:1xG 1.5–2.0 | L |
| 15.10 | Ararat-ArmeniaEuropa League | H | 3:1xG 2.1–1.0 | W |
| 10.10 | Górnik Zabrze | H | 1:3xG 0.6–2.1 | L |
| 03.10 | Polonia Warszawaclub friendly | H | 1:2 | L |
| 29.09 | Suduva Marijampoleclub friendly | H | 5:0 | W |
Wisła Płock| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.10 | Radomiak Radom | H | 1:0xG 0.5–1.2 | W |
| 09.10 | Wieczysta Kraków | A | 0:3xG 0.6–1.8 | L |
| 02.10 | Unia Skierniewiceclub friendly | H | 3:1 | W |
| 20.09 | Zagłębie Lubin | A | 2:0xG 1.2–1.1 | W |
| 13.09 | Cracovia | H | 3:1xG 1.5–1.1 | W |
| 07.09 | Pogoń Szczecin | A | 1:1 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ekstraklasa |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.3 / 1.7 | 1 / 1.5 | 1.5 |
| matches over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| both scored | 60% | 40% | |
| clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1 / 1.8 | 1 / 2 | |
| average total | 2.8 | 3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 60% | 67% | |
| both scored | 60% | 50% | |
- Jagiellonia Białystok score less than the league average: 1.3 vs 1.5
- Wisła Płock score less than the league average: 1 vs 1.5
- Jagiellonia Białystok: 4 league defeats in a row
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Jagiellonia Białystok, away games only for Wisła Płock
Head to head
3–2–4Jagiellonia Białystok wins · draws · Wisła Płock wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia Białystok vs Wisła Płock | 1:2 | 21.03.26 | |
| Wisła Płock vs Jagiellonia Białystok | 0:1 | 19.09.25 | |
| Wisła Płock vs Jagiellonia Białystok | 2:4 | 21.04.23 | |
| Wisła Płock vs Jagiellonia Białystok | 3:1 | 14.01.23 | club friendly |
| Jagiellonia Białystok vs Wisła Płock | 1:1 | 07.10.22 | |
| Jagiellonia Białystok vs Wisła Płock | 0:1 | 13.03.22 | |
| Wisła Płock vs Jagiellonia Białystok | 3:0 | 18.09.21 | |
| Wisła Płock vs Jagiellonia Białystok | 2:2 | 18.04.21 | |
| Jagiellonia Białystok vs Wisła Płock | 5:2 | 23.11.20 |
- both scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 6 of 9
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 11 | 4-3-4 | 13–18 | 15 | WLWLL |
| 10 | Wisła Płock | 10 | 4-2-4 | 10–15 | 14 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Cracovia | 11 | 3-3-5 | 13–16 | 12 | LLLWD |
| 12 | Motor Lublin | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15–19 | 12 | LLDWW |
| 13 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 10 | 4-0-6 | 13–17 | 12 | WLLLL |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 11 | 1-7-3 | 14–15 | 10 | DDDLD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 20.10
Goals by minute
- 0-1502
- 16-3021
- 31-4561
- 46-6005
- 61-7511
- 76-9056
- 0-1521
- 16-3012
- 31-4523
- 46-6022
- 61-7515
- 76-9013
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
