FINISHED
Legia Warsaw vs Lech Poznań 1:2: result and odds
Legia Warsaw vs Lech Poznań finished 1:2 in an upset; before kick-off the odds were 2.57 on a Lech Poznań win (having opened at 2.39), 2.52 on a Legia Warsaw win and 3.44 on a draw. The AI models' pick was both teams to score at 1.51, and it won.
- Referee: Szymon Marciniak
- Ekstraklasa, matchday 12 of 34
- +12°, overcast, wind 16 km/h
- Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Warsaw
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.51The market prices this option at 61%
AI models' pick · 9 of 15 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 6 chose others
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
2:1 9%1:2 8% — this score came in2:2 6%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 6 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 5 days a Lech Poznań win drifted from 2.39 to 2.57 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.51 → 1.54 since we published · Legia Warsaw became the favourite in 1X2View
Since we published, our bet (both teams score) has drifted from 1.51 to 1.54: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.54−0.01 | 2.32 | |
| 1.55 | 2.32+0.01 | |
| 1.55 | 2.31+0.02 | |
| 1.55+0.01 | 2.29−0.02 | |
| 1.54−0.01 | 2.31+0.01 | |
| 1.55+0.01 | 2.30−0.01 | |
| 1.54+0.03 | 2.31−0.08 | |
| We published both teams score at 1.51 | ||
| 1.51opened | 2.39opened | |
How the match went
Lech Poznań won 2-1 in Warsaw after a goalless first half. Y. Agnero, on for Mikael Ishak since the 14th minute, put the visitors ahead on 56 minutes from a Leo Bengtsson assist. Bogdan V'Yunnik levelled for Legia Warsaw on 74, set up by Rafał Augustyniak, but Luis Palma struck the winner on 87 after a pass from Daniel Håkans. Legia had the better numbers: 1.54 xG to 1.30, 17 shots to 11, 56% of the ball. Lech made eight saves to Legia's two, and each side picked up two yellow cards. Our both-teams-to-score bet, taken at odds of 1.51, landed. Before kick-off the market had Legia to win at 2.52 and Lech at 2.57, while the 1-2 scoreline was on offer at 9.01. The over/under 3 line was a push, with exactly three goals.
- 14'on Y. Agnero, off Mikael Ishak
- 15'Paweł Wszołek YC
- 29'on Mateusz Szczepaniak, off Rafal Adamski
- 45'on Rúben Vinagre, off Paweł Wszołek
- 56'Y. Agnero (Leo Bengtsson)0:1
- 60'Terry Yegbe YC
- 66'Leo Bengtsson YC
- 67'on Daniel Håkans, off Leo Bengtsson
- 67'on Bogdan V'Yunnik, off Michal Sevcik
- 67'on Shinnosuke Fukuda, off Kacper Chodyna
- 67'on Luis Palma, off Patrick Walemark
- 67'on Filip Jagiełło, off Pablo Rodriguez Delgado
- 71'Bartosz Kapustka YC
- 74'Bogdan V'Yunnik (Rafał Augustyniak)1:1
- 81'on Gustav Berggren, off antoni kozubal
- 85'on Damian Szymański, off Wojciech Urbanski
- 87'Luis Palma (Daniel Håkans)1:2
| Legia Warsaw | stat | Lech Poznań |
|---|---|---|
| 1.54 | expected goals (xG) | 1.30 |
| 17 | shots | 11 |
| 9 | on target | 5 |
| 56% | possession | 44% |
| 9 | corners | 5 |
| 15 | fouls | 12 |
| 2 | saves | 8 |
| 2 | yellow cards | 2 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Legia Warsaw- 89O. Hindrich6.6
- 5Robert Deziel6.7
- 8R. Augustyniak8.2
- 91K. Piątkowski6.4
- 11K. Chodyna6.1
- 67B. Kapustka6.8
- 53W. Urbański6.6
- 22P. Wszołek5.3
- 9R. Adamski6.3
- 79Ł. Zjawiński6.5
- 23M. Ševčík6.7
- 1I. Brkić
- 4D. Szymańskion 85'6.2
- 14A. Čolak
- 19Rúben Vinagreon 45'6.4
- 17M. Szczepaniakon 29'6.3
- 27Bogdan V'Yunnik
- 13A. Reca
- 7J. Kuchta
- 2S. Fukudaon 67'6.2
- 6Henrique Arreiol
- 24Z. Arsenić
Lech Poznań- 1M. Lis — highest feed rating in the match8.7
- 15M. Gurgul7.0
- 59T. Yegbe6.4
- 72M. Skrzypczak7.3
- 2Joel Pereira6.7
- 14L. Bengtsson6.9
- 43A. Kozubal6.0
- 22R. Murawski6.6
- 10P. Wålemark6.6
- 21Pablo Rodríguez6.2
- 9M. Ishak6.5
- 56W. Szymczak
- 33M. Pruchniewski
- 77L. Palmaon 67'7.7
- 31Wiktor Obremski
- 24F. Jagiełłoon 67'6.3
- 11D. Håkanson 67'6.8
- 5G. Berggrenon 81'6.4
- 55Piotr Bartczak
- 7Y. Agneroon 14'7.8
- 90H. Janyszka
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on both teams to score — the bet won. 5 more bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet won. One more bet on Lech Poznań not losing.
- 9 of 15BTTSour betodds 1.51
GrokQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMistral
SonarXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultrawon - 5 of 15O 2.5odds 1.65ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeek
GeminiKimiwon - 1 of 15X2odds 1.43MiniMaxwon
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 20.10 at 19:40 UTC
Lech Poznań arrive in Warsaw with four wins in their last five matches, 17 goals scored and five conceded. On the road this season they have not played a single game in which only one team found the net: 2.5 goals of their own and 1.5 against per match across four trips. Legia Warsaw are filling nets at home as well — 2.4 goals a game, with both sides on the scoresheet in three of their five home outings. The two sit second and third, just two points apart and with Legia holding a game in hand, so nobody has much reason to sit back and protect a result. The prices barely separate the sides, and the chance of both teams scoring is rated at 61%.
Where we could be wrong
But will that logic hold up against Legia's home defence? In Warsaw they concede only 0.6 per game and have kept a clean sheet in two of five matches, and exactly a year ago the meeting here finished goalless. If Papszun shuts down the middle and forces Lech to work the flanks, the visitors could well be kept out. Even so, our pick is both teams to score at 1.51.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Legia Warsaw| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Cracovia | A | 1:1xG 0.7–0.9 | D |
| 11.10 | Wisła Kraków | H | 2:0xG 1.3–0.8 | W |
| 03.10 | Korona Kielceclub friendly | H | 5:1 | W |
| 26.09 | Zaglebie Sosnowiecclub friendly | A | 4:2 | W |
| 20.09 | Jagiellonia Białystok | A | 3:1xG 1.8–2.3 | W |
| 13.09 | Widzew Łódź | H | 1:1xG 1.5–1.6 | D |
Lech Poznań| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10 | SunderlandEuropa League | H | 1:1 | D |
| 18.10 | Korona Kielce | H | 6:1xG 2.3–1.3 | W |
| 15.10 | Bayer LeverkusenEuropa League | H | 0:4xG 0.6–5.2 | L |
| 10.10 | Śląsk Wrocław | A | 4:1xG 2.0–0.8 | W |
| 03.10 | Energie Cottbusclub friendly | H | 2:2 | D |
| 20.09 | Radomiak Radom | H | 5:1xG 4.0–1.0 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ekstraklasa |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 2 / 0.8 | 2.7 / 0.9 | 1.5 |
| matches over 2.5 | 36% | 80% | |
| both scored | 73% | 70% | |
| clean sheets | 27% | 30% | |
| failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 2.4 / 0.6 | 2.5 / 1.5 | |
| average total | 3 | 4 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 40% | 100% | |
| both scored | 60% | 100% | |
- Legia Warsaw score more than the league average: 2 vs 1.5
- Lech Poznań score more than the league average: 2.7 vs 1.5
- Legia Warsaw unbeaten in the last 5 league games
- Lech Poznań: 3 league wins in a row
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Legia Warsaw, away games only for Lech Poznań
Head to head
2–5–3Legia Warsaw wins · draws · Lech Poznań wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznań vs Legia Warsaw | 4:0 | 26.04.26 | |
| Legia Warsaw vs Lech Poznań | 0:0 | 26.10.25 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Legia Warsaw | 1:2 | 13.07.25 | Super Cup |
| Legia Warsaw vs Lech Poznań | 0:1 | 11.05.25 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Legia Warsaw | 5:2 | 10.11.24 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Legia Warsaw | 1:2 | 12.05.24 | |
| Legia Warsaw vs Lech Poznań | 0:0 | 12.11.23 | |
| Legia Warsaw vs Lech Poznań | 2:2 | 16.04.23 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Legia Warsaw | 0:0 | 01.10.22 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Legia Warsaw | 1:1 | 09.04.22 |
- both scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 5 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Górnik Zabrze | 11 | 8-2-1 | 20–10 | 26 | WWDWD |
| 2 | Lech Poznań | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27–9 | 25 | WLWWW |
| 3 | Legia Warsaw | 11 | 6-5-0 | 22–9 | 23 | WDWWD |
| 4 | Pogoń Szczecin | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15–6 | 21 | DWWWW |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 20.10
Goals by minute
- 0-1541
- 16-3071
- 31-4523
- 46-6010
- 61-7533
- 76-9051
- 0-1551
- 16-3021
- 31-4561
- 46-6042
- 61-7551
- 76-90+53
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
