FINISHED
Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice 1:0: result and odds
Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice finished 1:0; before kick-off the odds were 2.10 on a Korona Kielce win, 3.12 on a GKS Katowice win and 3.60 on a draw. The AI models' pick was both teams to score at 1.58, and it lost.
- Referee: Patryk Gryckiewicz
- Ekstraklasa, matchday 12 of 34
- +9°, overcast
- EXBUD Arena, Kielce
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.58The market prices this option at 58%
AI models' pick · 13 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 3 chose others
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
2:1 9%1:2 8%1:0 7% — this score came in
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 2 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 6 days a draw drifted from 3.54 to 3.60 — fewer bets on the draw.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.58 → 1.52 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (both teams score) has shortened from 1.58 to 1.52: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.52 | 2.38+0.02 | |
| 1.52 | 2.36−0.01 | |
| 1.52 | 2.37+0.01 | |
| 1.52−0.06 | 2.36+0.14 | |
| 18 Oct – 20 Oct · no snapshots for 2 days | ||
| We published both teams score at 1.58 | ||
| 1.58opened | 2.22opened | |
How the match went
Camilo Mena scored the only goal on 70 minutes, set up by Wiktor Długosz, and Korona Kielce beat GKS Katowice 1-0 after a goalless first half. The turning point came earlier: Bartosz Nowak missed a penalty for GKS Katowice on 38 minutes. He was booked on 76 minutes, one of four yellow cards for the visitors against two for Korona Kielce. The xG leaned the other way, 1.89 for GKS Katowice against 1.22, yet Korona Kielce had 16 shots to 8 and put seven on target to two. Our both-teams-to-score bet, backed at 1.58, went down. Korona Kielce went off as 2.10 favourites, the draw was 3.60, and the goal line finished under 2.5 with one goal in the game.
- 27'Martin Remacle YC
- 36'Wiktor Długosz YC
- 38'Bartosz Nowak missed penalty
- 45'on Simon Gustafsson, off Martin Remacle
- 65'Mateusz·Kowalczyk YC
- 65'on Adam Zreľák, off Ilia Shkurin
- 65'on Morgan Faßbender, off Mariusz Stępiński
- 66'on Dawid Błanik, off Michael Ameyaw
- 70'Camilo Mena (Wiktor Długosz)1:0
- 71'on Szymon bartlewicz, off Marcel Wedrychowski
- 71'on Mateusz Wdowiak, off Borja Galan
- 72'on Konrad Matuszewski, off Marcel·Pieczek
- 76'Bartosz Nowak YC
- 78'Kacper Lukasiak YC
- 82'on Arkadiusz Jedrych, off Kacper Lukasiak
- 82'on Erik Jirka, off Marcin Wasielewski
- 83'on Bartlomiej·Smolarczyk, off Camilo Mena
- 89'Pau Resta YC
| Korona Kielce | stat | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|
| 1.22 | expected goals (xG) | 1.89 |
| 16 | shots | 8 |
| 7 | on target | 2 |
| 47% | possession | 53% |
| 9 | corners | 4 |
| 10 | fouls | 19 |
| 2 | saves | 5 |
| 2 | yellow cards | 4 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Korona Kielce- 1X. Dziekoński6.6
- 6M. Pięczek6.8
- 2A. Mosór7.2
- 23S. Rubežić6.3
- 71W. Długosz7.3
- 8M. Remacle6.9
- 18P. Hellebrand7.2
- 35Kamil Jakubczyk6.2
- 19M. Ameyaw6.4
- 14M. Stępiński6.2
- 30C. Mena — highest feed rating in the match8.1
- 87R. Mamla
- 11K. Matuszewskion 72'6.5
- 10Nono
- 24B. Smolarczykon 83'6.6
- 86Simon Gustafsonon 45'6.5
- 99Daniel Bak
- 67N. Barczak
- 7D. Błanikon 66'6.1
- 9S. Davidović
- 22M. Faßbenderon 65'6.7
- 26Igor Chmielewski
GKS Katowice- 87G. Kobylak7.5
- 55Pau Resta6.5
- 6L. Klemenz6.5
- 30A. Czerwiński7.1
- 8Borja Galán5.9
- 77M. Kowalczyk6.1
- 19K. Łukasiak6.2
- 23M. Wasielewski6.9
- 27B. Nowak5.6
- 17I. Shkurin6.2
- 10M. Wędrychowski6.0
- 4A. Jędrychon 82'6.3
- 31S. Bartlewiczon 71'6.6
- 97E. Jirkaon 82'6.4
- 1M. Kikolski
- 22S. Milewski
- 14M. Olsen
- 7M. Wdowiakon 71'5.8
- 68B. Wolski
- 99A. Zreľákon 65'6.0
- 26D. Rasak
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on both teams to score — the bet lost. 2 more bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet lost. One more bet on a GKS Katowice win.
- 13 of 16BTTSour betodds 1.58ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeek
GrokQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMaxMistral
SonarXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultralost - 2 of 16O 2.5odds 1.70
GeminiKimilost - 1 of 162odds 3.09Nemotron Superlost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:55 UTC
Neither Korona Kielce at home nor GKS Katowice on the road have kept a clean sheet this season. Both teams have found the net in 80% of Korona's five home matches, and in two thirds of Katowice's away games, where the average across six trips is 3.3 goals. The hosts have shipped 13 goals in five rounds of the Ekstraklasa, while the visitors have scored 10 in the same spell, and the 58% the market attaches to both teams scoring rests on exactly that picture. The April meeting in Kielce finished 1-1.
Where we could be wrong
The doubt comes from Korona's home habits: their matches in Kielce average 2.6 goals, only a fifth of them have produced three or more, and three times this season the side has failed to score at all. Exactly a year ago in Katowice a single goal from the home side settled everything, and a repeat of that grinding script would send the bet down. Our pick is both teams to score at 1.58.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Korona Kielce| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10 | Lech Poznań | A | 1:6xG 1.3–2.3 | L |
| 11.10 | Pogoń Szczecin | A | 0:2xG 0.8–0.9 | L |
| 03.10 | Legia Warsawclub friendly | A | 1:5 | L |
| 19.09 | Raków Częstochowa | H | 3:2xG 3.5–1.8 | W |
| 15.09 | Górnik Zabrze | H | 0:2xG 0.1–1.8 | L |
| 12.09 | Śląsk Wrocław | A | 2:1xG 2.5–1.3 | W |
GKS Katowice| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Pogoń Szczecin | H | 0:1xG 1.0–2.1 | L |
| 12.10 | Wieczysta Kraków | H | 2:1xG 0.9–2.6 | W |
| 09.10 | Raków Częstochowa | A | 4:1xG 2.6–1.2 | W |
| 03.10 | Baník Ostravaclub friendly | H | 1:1 | D |
| 19.09 | Cracovia | H | 3:2 | W |
| 12.09 | Zagłębie Lubin | A | 1:2 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ekstraklasa |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.2 / 1.6 | 2 / 1.5 | 1.5 |
| matches over 2.5 | 36% | 82% | |
| both scored | 64% | 64% | |
| clean sheets | 9% | 9% | |
| failed to score | 27% | 27% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 1.8 | |
| average total | 2.6 | 3.3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 20% | 83% | |
| both scored | 80% | 67% | |
- Korona Kielce score less than the league average: 1.2 vs 1.5
- GKS Katowice score more than the league average: 2 vs 1.5
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Korona Kielce, away games only for GKS Katowice
Head to head
2–1–4Korona Kielce wins · draws · GKS Katowice wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice | 1:1 | 25.04.26 | |
| GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce | 1:0 | 25.10.25 | |
| Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice | 2:1 | 05.05.25 | |
| GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce | 1:2 | 04.11.24 | |
| Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice | 0:1 | 10.12.22 | club friendly |
| Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice | 1:2 | 14.05.22 | I Liga |
| GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce | 1:0 | 06.11.21 | I Liga |
- both scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 7
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pogoń Szczecin | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15–6 | 21 | DWWWW |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 11 | 6-0-5 | 22–16 | 18 | LWWWL |
| 6 | Wisła Kraków | 11 | 5-3-3 | 17–14 | 18 | DWWLD |
| 8 | Piast Gliwice | 11 | 5-2-4 | 19–17 | 17 | WWLWD |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 11 | 4-3-4 | 13–18 | 15 | WLWLL |
| 10 | Cracovia | 11 | 3-3-5 | 13–16 | 12 | LLLWD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10
Goals by minute
- 0-1503
- 16-3063
- 31-4521
- 46-6024
- 61-7520
- 76-9017
- 0-1521
- 16-3010
- 31-4524
- 46-6035
- 61-7543
- 76-90+94
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
