FINISHED
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia 3:1: result and odds
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia finished 3:1; before kick-off the odds were 2.47 on a Piast Gliwice win (having opened at 2.70), 2.63 on a Cracovia win and 3.44 on a draw. The AI models' pick was over 2.5 goals at 1.69, and it won.
- Referee: Pawel Malec
- Ekstraklasa, matchday 12 of 34
- +10°, overcast
- Stadion Miejski, Gliwice
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Over 2.5 goals
1.69The market prices this option at 55%
AI models' pick · Two directions drew level; the one priced closer to the line was taken
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
2:1 9%1:2 8%1:0 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 3 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 6 days a Piast Gliwice win shortened from 2.70 to 2.47 — money is coming in on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Over 2.5: 1.69 → 1.66 since we published · Piast Gliwice became the favourite in 1X2View
Since we published, our bet (over 2.5 goals) has shortened from 1.69 to 1.66: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 · our bet | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.66+0.01 | 2.17−0.01 | |
| 1.65−0.02 | 2.18+0.04 | |
| 1.67 | 2.14+0.01 | |
| 1.67−0.01 | 2.13+0.02 | |
| 1.68−0.03 | 2.11+0.03 | |
| 1.71+0.01 | 2.08 | |
| 1.70+0.01 | 2.08−0.02 | |
| 18 Oct – 20 Oct · no snapshots for 2 days | ||
| We published over 2.5 goals at 1.69 | ||
| 1.69opened | 2.10opened | |
How the match went
Jakub Czerwiński put Piast Gliwice ahead after seven minutes, and Hugo Vallejo made it 2-0 on 25, which was the half-time score. Cracovia pulled one back through Karol Knap on 62 minutes, set up by Otar Kakabadze. Andreas Katsantonis added the third in stoppage time, 90+4, and Piast Gliwice won 3-1. They had 18 shots to 13 and 55% of the ball, though the xG was close: 1.78 against 1.54. Our over 2.5 goals bet, backed at 1.69, landed with four goals. The market had Piast Gliwice narrowly ahead, 2.47 to win against 2.63 for Cracovia, and the over 2.5 price before kick-off was 1.66. The exact 3-1 went off at 18.67.
- 7'Jakub Czerwiński (Quentin Boisgard)1:0
- 25'Hugo Vallejo (Szczepan·Mucha)2:0
- 45'Szczepan·Mucha YC
- 45'on Francisco Sierralta, off Jakub Czerwiński
- 45'on Mateusz Klich, off Dijon Kameri
- 45'on Oskar·Lesniak, off Szczepan·Mucha
- 48'Otar Kakabadze YC
- 56'VAR check · Mateusz Klich
- 57'Mateusz Klich YC
- 62'Karol Knap (Otar Kakabadze)2:1
- 72'on Ivan Lima, off Jakub Labojko
- 78'on Kahveh Zahiroleslam, off Amir Al-Ammari
- 79'on Ajdin Hasić, off Mohamed Berte
- 83'Ivan Lima YC
- 85'on Maciej Kucharski, off Samuel Ntamack Ndimba
- 90'on Mauro Perković, off Vincent Burlet
- 90'on Andreas Katsantonis, off Leandro Mário Baldé Sanca
- 90'on Kamil Glik, off Brahim Traoré
- 90+4'Andreas Katsantonis3:1
- 90+7'Quentin Boisgard YC
| Piast Gliwice | stat | Cracovia |
|---|---|---|
| 1.78 | expected goals (xG) | 1.54 |
| 18 | shots | 13 |
| 7 | on target | 5 |
| 55% | possession | 45% |
| 4 | corners | 4 |
| 8 | fouls | 11 |
| 4 | saves | 3 |
| 3 | yellow cards | 2 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Piast Gliwice- 75D. Gril6.8
- 36J. Lewicki6.4
- 4J. Czerwiński7.7
- 5Juande Rivas7.1
- 99E. Twumasi7.1
- 80Hugo Vallejo — highest feed rating in the match8.2
- 17Q. Boisgard7.3
- 27J. Łabojko6.7
- 77S. Mucha6.6
- 11Leandro Sanca6.3
- 19S. Ntamack Ndimba6.5
- 7Jorge Félix
- 28F. Borowski
- 47J. Grelich
- 10A. Katsantonison 90'7.4
- 31O. Leśniakon 45'6.5
- 90Ivan Limaon 72'6.3
- 18O. Maziarz
- 12Marcel Mendes-Dudziński
- 15L. Pitan
- 22F. Sierraltaon 45'6.8
- 91Maciej Kucharski
- 3E. Fikaj
Cracovia- 13S. Madejski5.7
- 28V. Burlet5.8
- 61B. Traoré6.5
- 4G. Henriksson6.7
- 25O. Kakabadze6.6
- 17M. Minchev6.5
- 6Amir Al Ammari6.4
- 20K. Knap7.2
- 70D. Kameri5.7
- 11L. Nordås6.3
- 90M. Berte6.1
- 77J. Chrapusta
- 29W. Dej
- 15K. Glikon 90'5.9
- 14A. Hasićon 79'6.0
- 43M. Klichon 45'6.3
- 39M. Perkovićon 90'6.0
- 79D. Piła
- 5B. Selan
- 18Kahveh Zahiroleslamon 78'6.3
- 22D. Baumgartner
- 91A. Bobek
- 27S. Eyob-Abraha
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet won. 4 more bet on both teams to score — the bet won. The other 6 chose other bets: a Piast Gliwice handicap, a Piast Gliwice win and double chance.
- 6 of 16O 2.5our betodds 1.69DeepSeek
GeminiKimiQwenMiniMaxXiaomi MiMowon - 4 of 16BTTSodds 1.54
GrokDeepSeek FlashMistral
Dots3-Notewon - 3 of 16DNB 1odds 1.96ChatGPT
GLMNemotron Ultrawon - 2 of 161odds 2.70ClaudeNemotron Superwon
- 1 of 161Xodds 1.48
Sonarwon
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:55 UTC
Piast Gliwice's home record is the backbone of this one. Across six matches in Gliwice they have averaged 2.3 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, 83% of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in the same share. Cracovia ship 1.6 a game on the road and have not won any of their five away trips. Over the last five rounds Piast have scored nine and conceded four, Cracovia seven and nine, so attacks and defences on both sides are feeding the goal markets. The odds give over 2.5 goals around 55%, and our pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.69.
Where we could be wrong
The previous meetings are the obvious objection. Three in a row in Gliwice have finished as goalless draws: August 2025, December 2024 and February 2024. Cracovia manage only 0.8 goals per away game and drew a blank in two of their five trips, so a tight afternoon with one goal between the two is a genuine possibility.
- Two directions drew the same number of AI models: the bet was taken from the one priced closer to the line.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Piast Gliwice| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10 | Górnik Zabrze | A | 1:1xG 0.9–3.1 | D |
| 11.10 | Widzew Łódź | H | 2:1xG 1.6–1.8 | W |
| 02.10 | Wisła Krakówclub friendly | H | 3:4 | L |
| 20.09 | Pogoń Szczecin | H | 1:2xG 0.9–1.4 | L |
| 14.09 | Radomiak Radom | A | 2:0 | W |
| 04.09 | GKS Katowice | H | 3:0xG 0.9–1.6 | W |
Cracovia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Legia Warsaw | H | 1:1xG 0.9–0.7 | D |
| 10.10 | Zagłębie Lubin | H | 3:1xG 2.9–1.1 | W |
| 03.10 | Niecieczaclub friendly | H | 2:3 | L |
| 19.09 | GKS Katowice | A | 2:3 | L |
| 13.09 | Wisła Płock | A | 1:3xG 1.1–1.5 | L |
| 06.09 | Górnik Zabrze | H | 0:1 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ekstraklasa |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.7 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 1.5 | 1.5 |
| matches over 2.5 | 55% | 55% | |
| both scored | 55% | 64% | |
| clean sheets | 27% | 18% | |
| failed to score | 18% | 36% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 2.3 / 1.8 | 0.8 / 1.6 | |
| average total | 4.2 | 2.4 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 83% | 60% | |
| both scored | 83% | 60% | |
- Piast Gliwice score more than the league average: 1.7 vs 1.5
- Cracovia score less than the league average: 1.2 vs 1.5
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Piast Gliwice, away games only for Cracovia
Head to head
4–5–1Piast Gliwice wins · draws · Cracovia wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cracovia vs Piast Gliwice | 2:3 | 27.02.26 | |
| Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia | 0:0 | 24.08.25 | |
| Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia | 0:0 | 08.12.24 | |
| Cracovia vs Piast Gliwice | 1:1 | 21.07.24 | |
| Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia | 0:0 | 23.02.24 | |
| Cracovia vs Piast Gliwice | 1:1 | 21.08.23 | |
| Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia | 2:1 | 25.02.23 | |
| Cracovia vs Piast Gliwice | 0:1 | 13.08.22 | |
| Cracovia vs Piast Gliwice | 0:1 | 20.03.22 | |
| Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia | 2:4 | 27.09.21 |
- both scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin | 11 | 5-3-3 | 13–13 | 18 | WWLLW |
| 8 | Piast Gliwice | 11 | 5-2-4 | 19–17 | 17 | WWLWD |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 11 | 4-3-4 | 13–18 | 15 | WLWLL |
| 10 | Cracovia | 11 | 3-3-5 | 13–16 | 12 | LLLWD |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15–19 | 12 | LLDWW |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10
Goals by minute
- 0-1523
- 16-3011
- 31-4541
- 46-6002
- 61-7528
- 76-90+93
- 0-1501
- 16-3003
- 31-4521
- 46-6044
- 61-7543
- 76-90+43
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
