31 Oct
Lech Poznań vs Wisła Kraków: AI betting tips and pick
On 31 October, Lech Poznań host Wisła Kraków. The AI models' pick is Lech Poznań −1.5 handicap at 2.49; Lech Poznań have won 4 in a row.
- Ekstraklasa, matchday 13 of 34
- +10°, cloudy
- Enea Stadion, Poznań
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Lech Poznań −1.5 handicap
2.49The market prices this option at 36%
AI models' pick · 11 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 3 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
likely score
2:1 10%2:0 9%1:0 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 3 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 1 day a Wisła Kraków win shortened from 4.44 to 4.04 — money is coming in on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementWisła Kraków 4.44 → 4.04 over 1 day · 10 snapshotsView
The biggest move is a Lech Poznań win: from 1.64 to 1.74 — 3.6 pp of implied chance, more than any other outcome.
Price changes
| When | Lech Poznań | Draw | Wisła Kraków |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.74+0.08 | 4.00−0.13 | 4.04−0.32 | |
| 1.66+0.02 | 4.13−0.02 | 4.36−0.08 | |
| 1.64opened | 4.15opened | 4.44opened |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for Lech Poznań −1.5. 7 more chose close bets in the same direction: Lech Poznań −1 and a Lech Poznań win. 2 more went for over 2.5 goals.
- 7 of 16H1 (−1.5)our betodds 2.49DeepSeekKimiQwenDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxMistral
Dots3-Note - 4 of 16H1 (−1)same directionodds 2.04Claude
GLM
SonarXiaomi MiMo - 3 of 161same directionodds 1.64ChatGPT
GeminiNemotron Super - 2 of 16O 2.5odds 1.43
GrokNemotron Ultra
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 25.10 at 16:38 UTC
This analysis was written on 25.10: the teams have played since, and the points, games or position in the table below have moved on.
Poznań has been a hard place to visit: Lech Poznań have five wins and one draw at home, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.5 per game, with nothing let in across half of those matches. Wisła Kraków are still waiting for a first away win — three draws and three defeats on the road, 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Lech sit second with 25 points after 10 rounds, while the Kraków side have 21 from 12. Wisła have already been beaten heavily in Poznań, losing 0-5 in September 2021 and 0-4 in October 2019. The prices put the hosts at around a 57% chance of winning, and the home numbers explain why.
Where we could be wrong
The doubt is a slow, grinding game. What if the visitors drag the match into a tight positional battle, where their time on the ball takes the pace out of the hosts? Both teams scored in 67% of Wisła's away fixtures, and three draws on their travels show they can cling to a scoreline. A win by a single goal would not be enough to land the bet. Our pick is the Lech Poznań -1.5 handicap in the Ekstraklasa.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Lech Poznań| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.10 | Legia Warsaw | A | 2:1 | W |
| 22.10 | SunderlandEuropa League | H | 1:1xG 2.7–3.0 | D |
| 18.10 | Korona Kielce | H | 6:1xG 2.3–1.3 | W |
| 15.10 | Bayer LeverkusenEuropa League | H | 0:4xG 0.6–5.2 | L |
| 10.10 | Śląsk Wrocław | A | 4:1xG 2.0–0.8 | W |
| 03.10 | Energie Cottbusclub friendly | H | 2:2 | D |
Wisła Kraków| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.10 | Raków Częstochowa | H | 2:1xG 1.1–2.0 | W |
| 16.10 | Widzew Łódź | A | 0:0xG 2.6–0.7 | D |
| 11.10 | Legia Warsaw | A | 0:2xG 0.8–1.3 | L |
| 02.10 | Piast Gliwiceclub friendly | A | 4:3 | W |
| 18.09 | Śląsk Wrocław | H | 2:1xG 2.5–0.8 | W |
| 11.09 | Jagiellonia Białystok | H | 2:0xG 1.7–0.2 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ekstraklasa |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 2.6 / 0.9 | 1.6 / 1.3 | 1.5 |
| matches over 2.5 | 82% | 58% | |
| both scored | 73% | 67% | |
| clean sheets | 27% | 25% | |
| failed to score | 9% | 17% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 2.8 / 0.5 | 1.2 / 1.8 | |
| average total | 3.3 | 3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| both scored | 50% | 67% | |
- Lech Poznań score more than the league average: 2.6 vs 1.5
- Lech Poznań: 4 league wins in a row
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Lech Poznań, away games only for Wisła Kraków
Head to head
4–2–2Lech Poznań wins · draws · Wisła Kraków wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisła Kraków vs Lech Poznań | 1:1 | 13.03.22 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Wisła Kraków | 5:0 | 17.09.21 | |
| Wisła Kraków vs Lech Poznań | 1:2 | 08.05.21 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Wisła Kraków | 0:1 | 19.12.20 | |
| Wisła Kraków vs Lech Poznań | 1:1 | 08.03.20 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Wisła Kraków | 4:0 | 05.10.19 | |
| Wisła Kraków vs Lech Poznań | 0:1 | 21.12.18 | |
| Lech Poznań vs Wisła Kraków | 2:5 | 19.08.18 |
- both scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 4 of 8
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznań | 11 | 9-1-1 | 29–10 | 28 | LWWWW |
| 2 | Górnik Zabrze | 12 | 8-3-1 | 21–11 | 27 | WDWDD |
| 4 | Legia Warsaw | 12 | 6-5-1 | 23–11 | 23 | DWWDL |
| 5 | Wisła Kraków | 12 | 6-3-3 | 19–15 | 21 | WWLDW |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 12 | 6-2-4 | 22–18 | 20 | WLWDW |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1551
- 16-3021
- 31-4561
- 46-6042
- 61-7551
- 76-90+53
- 0-1521
- 16-3017
- 31-4531
- 46-6061
- 61-7512
- 76-90+54
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
