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data updated 27.10 08:07

FINISHED

Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe 4:0: result and odds

Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe finished 4:0; before kick-off the odds were 1.56 on an Athletic Bilbao win (having opened at 1.63), 6.64 on a Getafe win and 4.03 on a draw. The AI models' pick was under 2.5 goals at 1.67, and it lost.

published · updated UTC

Athletic Bilbao
Getafe

AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals

1.67

The market prices this option at 57%

AI models' pick · 5 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 1 more in the same direction

Under half back the bet

Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results

lost−1.00 unitsclosing odds1.68CLV−1%
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
closing odds
The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
CLV
How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:013%odds 5.24

1:1 13%2:0 12%0:0 10%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 25.10 12:13

result11.56−0.07X4.03+0.1526.64+1.38
total 2.5O2.22+0.01U1.68 — matches our bet+0.01
both to scoreyes2.23+0.10no1.59−0.06
double chance1X1.12−0.04121.24−0.01X22.43+0.17
handicapH1 −11.96−0.17H2 +11.86+0.16

Over 7 days a Getafe win drifted from 5.26 to 6.64 — fewer bets on the away side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Under 2.5: 1.67 → 1.68 since we publishedView

This market has barely moved: Over 2.5 2.21 → 2.22, Under 2.5 1.67 → 1.68.

Over 2.52.21 → 2.22Under 2.51.67 → 1.68our bet
1.601.802.002.203 daysno data18 Oct21 Oct23 Oct24 Oct25 OctWe published · 1.67Over 2.5 2.22Under 2.5 1.68

Price changes

Price changes in the Total 2.5 market
WhenOver 2.5Under 2.5 · our bet
2.22−0.061.68+0.04
2.28−0.031.64+0.02
2.31−0.011.62
2.32+0.011.62
2.311.62−0.01
2.311.63+0.01
2.311.62−0.01
2.31+0.011.63
2.30+0.011.63
2.29+0.081.63−0.04
18 Oct – 21 Oct · no snapshots for 3 days
We published under 2.5 goals at 1.67
2.21opened1.67opened
56 snapshots · the prices changed 10 times

How the match went

half-time 2:0

match report · 25.10 15:03

Alex Berenguer had a hand in all four goals as Athletic Bilbao won 4-0. He scored the first on 17 minutes and set up the other three: Iñaki Williams on 35, Aitor Paredes on 70 and Yuri Berchiche on 88. It was 2-0 at half-time. Getafe lost Mario Martín Rielves to a red card on 86 minutes, before the fourth goal. Four goals came from 0.77 xG against 0.42 for Getafe. Athletic had 11 shots to seven, four on target to one, and 62% of the ball. Before kick-off the market had Athletic at 1.56 to win, over 2.5 goals was 2.22, and the exact 4-0 was 25.20. Our bet on fewer than 2.5 goals, backed with odds of 1.67, went down.

  1. 17'Athletic BilbaoAlex Berenguer1:0
  2. 18'Athletic Bilbaoon Beñat Gerenabarrena, off Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta
  3. 35'Athletic BilbaoIñaki Williams (Alex Berenguer)2:0
  4. 39'GetafeRamón Terrats YC
  5. 43'GetafeDaniel Carvajal YC
  6. 45'Getafeon Saba Sazonov, off Francho Serrano Gracia
  7. 45'Getafeon Andrés García, off Kiko Femenia
  8. 63'GetafeJohan Mojica YC
  9. 68'Athletic Bilbaoon Christian Imga, off Nico Williams
  10. 68'Athletic Bilbaoon Alejandro Rego Mora, off Maroan Sannadi
  11. 70'Athletic BilbaoAitor Paredes (Alex Berenguer)3:0
  12. 71'Getafeon Borja Mayoral, off Ramón Terrats
  13. 71'Getafeon Enes Ünal, off Iván Azón
  14. 71'Getafeon David Cordón Mancha, off Johan Mojica
  15. 72'Athletic BilbaoBeñat Gerenabarrena YC
  16. 84'Athletic Bilbaoon Beñat Prados Díaz, off Peio Canales
  17. 85'Athletic Bilbaoon Jesús Vizcay Hurtado, off Iñaki Williams
  18. 86'GetafeMario Martín Rielves RC
  19. 88'Athletic BilbaoYuri Berchiche (Alex Berenguer)4:0
Match stats: Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe
Athletic BilbaostatGetafe
0.77expected goals (xG)0.42
11shots7
4on target1
62%possession38%
2corners4
11fouls15
1saves0
1yellow cards3
0red cards1
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Athletic Bilbao

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager E. Terzić

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1Unai Simón6.9
  • 17Yuri8.5
  • 4Aitor Paredes8.7
  • 3Dani Vivian7.6
  • 15Hugo Rincón7.0
  • 28Peio Canales7.2
  • 16Ruíz de Galarreta7.2
  • 10Nico Williams6.4
  • 7Álex Berenguer — highest feed rating in the match9.8
  • 9I. Williams7.9
  • 21Maroan Sannadi6.4
substitutes
  • 22Nico Serrano
  • 6Beñat Pradoson 84'6.8
  • 5Yeray
  • 20Alejandro Regoon 68'6.7
  • 13Álex Padilla
  • 23Robert Navarro
  • 31J. Louis-Jean
  • 18Mikel Jauregizar
  • 24Beñat Gerenabarrenaon 18'6.8
  • 12Jesús Areso
  • 33Christian Imgaon 68'6.6
  • 34Jesús Vizcay Hurtado
Getafe

formation 5-4-1 · manager Pepe Bordalás

starting XIfeed rating
  • 13David Soria5.5
  • 22J. Mojica5.4
  • 26J. Valou6.0
  • 8N. Gudelj6.4
  • 14Daniel Carvajal
  • 17Kiko Femenía5.8
  • 10M. Satriano5.8
  • 6Mario Martín5.4
  • 16Francho Serrano5.9
  • 11Ramón Terrats5.7
  • 20Iván Azón6.2
substitutes
  • 21Andrés Garcíaon 45'6.1
  • 19E. Ünalon 71'6.4
  • 4S. Sazonovon 45'6.2
  • 28Alberto Risco
  • 9Borja Mayoralon 71'6.3
  • 1J. Letáček
  • 35Diego Ferrer
  • 3Davinchion 71'5.7
  • 5A. Abqar
  • 15S. Boselli

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on under 2.5 goals — the bet lost. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: under 3.5 goals. 5 more bet on at least one side failing to score — the bet won. The other 5 chose other bets: an Athletic Bilbao win and an Athletic Bilbao handicap.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:54 UTC

Getafe have not scored in any of their four away matches this season, and nobody traded goals in them either — the visitors shipped two per game with just 34.8% possession. Athletic Bilbao's home games in LaLiga average 2.3 goals, the hosts score 1.3 themselves, and they keep a clean sheet in half of them.

The record points the same way: ten previous meetings have produced six draws, the game in Bilbao a year ago finished 0-1 and May 2025 ended 0-2. The market rates under 2.5 goals at around 57%, and drizzle and wind at San Mamés hardly argue with that. Our pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.67.

Where we could be wrong

There is a catch. Half of Athletic Bilbao's home matches this season did go past two and a half goals, and one early goal for the home side against such a toothless attack could quickly turn the evening into a rout. Getafe also arrive after a week in the Conference League, and rotation in Bordalás's defence works against a low total.

  • 5 of 16 AI models back this bet and 1 more chose a close bet in the same direction; more than half chose something else.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first · as of 25.10
Athletic Bilbao
Recent matches: Athletic Bilbao
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
21.10LevanteA1:3L
17.10ValenciaA0:0xG 0.7–1.5D
10.10Rayo VallecanoA0:0xG 0.1–0.0D
02.10Real Sociedadclub friendlyA1:0W
19.09Deportivo AlavésH0:0xG 1.6–0.1D
12.09ElcheH1:1D
Getafe
Recent matches: Getafe
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
22.10LuganoConference LeagueH2:5L
19.10Rayo VallecanoH1:1D
15.10Universitatea CraiovaConference LeagueA1:1xG 1.4–0.6D
10.10BarcelonaA0:3xG 0.1–1.9L
20.09MálagaH1:0xG 0.9–0.5W
17.09Real BetisA0:1L

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstAthletic BilbaoGetafeLaLiga
goals1 / 1.10.6 / 1.21.5
xG1.5 / 1.30.6 / 1.41.5
shots15.5 / 10.610.9 / 15.213.5
shots on target4.3 / 42.7 / 4.94.8
corners6.5 / 4.34.2 / 64.9
fouls11.5 / 11.914 / 12.812.3
yellow cards2 / 1.93.2 / 2.42.2
matches over 2.538%22%
both scored38%33%
clean sheets50%22%
failed to score38%44%
home / away
goals1.3 / 10 / 2
average total2.32
matches over 2.550%50%
both scored50%0%
  • Athletic Bilbao score less than the league average: 1 vs 1.5
  • Getafe score less than the league average: 0.6 vs 1.5
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Athletic Bilbao, away games only for Getafe

Head to head

last 10

2–6–2Athletic Bilbao wins · draws · Getafe wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Getafe vs Athletic Bilbao2:005.04.26
Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe0:125.10.25
Getafe vs Athletic Bilbao0:215.05.25
Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe1:115.08.24
Getafe vs Athletic Bilbao0:203.05.24
Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe2:227.09.23
Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe0:001.04.23
Getafe vs Athletic Bilbao2:218.10.22
Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe1:118.03.22
Getafe vs Athletic Bilbao0:006.12.21
  • both scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 10

League table

League standings: LaLiga
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
10Osasuna93-2-410–1811LLDLW
11Athletic Bilbao72-3-27–69WDDD
12Villarreal92-3-413–139LWWLD
14Rayo Vallecano72-2-311–168WLWD
15Getafe82-2-44–108DDLWL
16Racing Santander92-2-513–258WLLDL

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10

Goals by minute

league season
Athletic Bilbao
  • 0-1501
  • 16-3020
  • 31-4501
  • 46-6023
  • 61-7510
  • 76-9012
Getafe
  • 0-1501
  • 16-3011
  • 31-4502
  • 46-6001
  • 61-7512
  • 76-9023

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

All LaLiga results
0:0Celta Vigo–Real BetisOur pick:BTTS1.65prediction lost14 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 3.15X 3.432 2.292:1Real Sociedad–LevanteOur pick:11.71prediction won9 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.56X 4.632 5.241:2Barcelona–Real MadridOur pick:O 3.51.62prediction lost6 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 2 more in the same direction1 1.59X 5.702 4.10