Skip to content
Menu

data updated 27.10 08:07

FINISHED

Barcelona vs Real Madrid 1:2: result and odds

Barcelona vs Real Madrid finished 1:2 in an upset; before kick-off the odds were 4.10 on a Real Madrid win (having opened at 5.12), 1.59 on a Barcelona win and 5.70 on a draw. The AI models' pick was over 3.5 goals at 1.62, and it lost.

published · updated UTC

Barcelona
Real Madrid

AI models' pick: Over 3.5 goals

1.62

The market prices this option at 59%

AI models' pick · 6 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 2 more in the same direction

Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results

lost−1.00 units
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

2:19%odds 9.28

1:1 8%3:1 7%2:2 6%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 25.10 19:20

result11.59+0.10X5.70+0.4624.10−1.02
total 3.5O1.52 — matches our bet−0.10U2.51+0.20
both to scoreyes1.27−0.05no3.46+0.29
double chance1X1.23+0.06121.14−0.01X22.35−0.25
handicapH1 −11.88+0.16H2 +11.96−0.14

Over 7 days a Real Madrid win shortened from 5.12 to 4.10 — money is coming in on the away side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementReal Madrid 5.12 → 4.10 over 7 days · 62 snapshotsView

The biggest move is a Real Madrid win: from 5.12 to 4.10 — 5.2 pp of implied chance, more than any other outcome.

Barcelona1.49 → 1.59Draw5.24 → 5.70Real Madrid5.12 → 4.10
1.502.002.504.005.003 daysno data18 Oct21 Oct23 Oct24 Oct25 OctDraw 5.70Real Madrid 4.10Barcelona 1.59

Price changes

Price changes in the 1X2 market
WhenBarcelonaDrawReal Madrid
1.59−0.025.70+0.054.10
1.61−0.045.65+0.154.10+0.21
1.655.50−0.013.89−0.01
1.65+0.015.51−0.033.90−0.02
1.64+0.015.543.92−0.16
1.63+0.015.54−0.014.08+0.01
1.625.55+0.034.07+0.03
1.625.52+0.014.04+0.01
1.62+0.015.51+0.034.03−0.02
1.615.48+0.024.05−0.01
1.615.46+0.024.06−0.01
1.615.444.07+0.01
1.61+0.015.44+0.034.06+0.05
1.605.414.01−0.01
1.60−0.025.41−0.014.02+0.01
1.62+0.015.42+0.134.01−0.06
1.61+0.125.29+0.054.07−1.05
18 Oct – 21 Oct · no snapshots for 3 days
1.49opened5.24opened5.12opened
62 snapshots · the prices changed 17 times

How the match went

half-time 0:1

match report · 25.10 22:11

Kylian Mbappé scored twice and Real Madrid won 2-1 at Barcelona. His first came on 41 minutes and it was 0-1 at half-time. Raphael Dias Belloli levelled on 61 minutes, Pedri providing the assist, and Mbappé struck again on 87 after a pass from Eduardo Camavinga, a substitute since 80. Barcelona had 62% of the ball against 38% and took 18 shots to 10, yet the xG read 1.27 against 2.01 for Real Madrid. Each side collected three yellow cards. Our over 3.5 goals bet at 1.62 went down, with three goals in the match. Real Madrid to win was 4.10 before kick-off, shortened from 5.12 when the odds opened, while Barcelona were 1.59.

  1. 30'Barcelonaon Alejandro Balde, off Xavi Espart
  2. 41'Real MadridKylian Mbappé0:1
  3. 46'Real MadridAurelien Tchouameni YC
  4. 61'BarcelonaRaphael Dias Belloli (Pedri)1:1
  5. 62'Real Madridon Denzel Dumfries, off Federico Valverde
  6. 74'Barcelonaon Frenkie de Jong, off Fermín López
  7. 80'Real Madridon Eduardo Camavinga, off Bernardo Silva
  8. 84'BarcelonaAnthony Gordon YC
  9. 85'Barcelonaon Karim Adeyemi, off Anthony Gordon
  10. 86'Barcelonaon Gabriel Jesus, off Raphael Dias Belloli
  11. 87'Real MadridKylian Mbappé (Eduardo Camavinga)1:2
  12. 90+2'Real MadridMarc Cucurella YC
  13. 90+4'Real MadridKylian Mbappé YC
  14. 90+4'Real Madridon Trent Alexander-Arnold, off Arda Güler
  15. 90+4'Real Madridon Carlos Espí, off Yan Diomande
  16. 90+6'BarcelonaKarim Adeyemi YC
  17. 90+6'BarcelonaAlejandro Balde YC
Match stats: Barcelona vs Real Madrid
BarcelonastatReal Madrid
1.27expected goals (xG)2.01
18shots10
6on target5
62%possession38%
6corners6
15fouls11
3saves5
3yellow cards3
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Barcelona

formation 4-3-3 · manager H. Flick

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1Joan García6.8
  • 2João Cancelo7.3
  • 18Gerard Martín6.3
  • 5Pau Cubarsí Paredes6.5
  • 12X. Espart6.5
  • 8Pedri7.6
  • 16Rodri6.6
  • 7Fermín6.3
  • 17A. Gordon6.7
  • 11Raphinha8.0
  • 10Lamine Yamal6.2
substitutes
  • 14K. Adeyemion 85'6.1
  • 13W. Szczęsny
  • 25D. Livaković
  • 32O. Goren
  • 6Gavi
  • 9Gabriel Jesuson 86'6.2
  • 4B. Farinas
  • 29H. Abdelkarim
  • 3Alejandro Baldeon 30'6.1
  • 22Marc Bernal
  • 41A. Campos
  • 21F. de Jongon 74'6.0
Real Madrid

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager José Mourinho

starting XIfeed rating
  • 13A. Lunin7.8
  • 17Marc Cucurella6.6
  • 4D. Huijsen6.6
  • 16I. Konaté7.0
  • 8F. Valverde7.1
  • 14A. Tchouaméni6.5
  • 20Bernardo Silva6.5
  • 25Y. Diomande6.3
  • 5J. Bellingham6.9
  • 15A. Güler7.2
  • 10Kylian Mbappé — highest feed rating in the match8.8
substitutes
  • 39I. Voloshyn
  • 12T. Alexander-Arnoldon 90+4'
  • 6E. Camavingaon 80'6.7
  • 22A. Rüdiger
  • 27Thiago Pitarch
  • 26Sergio Mestre
  • 19Carlos Espíon 90+4'
  • 9Endrick
  • 3Éder Militão
  • 24D. Dumfrieson 62'6.1
  • 21Brahim Díaz
  • 18Álvaro Fernández

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on over 3.5 goals — the bet lost. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: over 2.5 goals. 4 more bet on Barcelona −1.5 — the bet lost. The other 4 chose other bets: a Barcelona handicap.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:54 UTC

Both sides are built for goals right now. Barcelona at home are scoring 4.3 a game while conceding one, and their home matches average 5.3 goals in total. Real Madrid have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road, where they ship a goal and a half per game, and in three of four away trips both teams have scored. The recent Clásicos have gone the same way: 3-2 in the Super Cup in January, then 4-3 and 3-2 in the spring of 2025, and 5-2 in the Super Cup in January 2025. The market rates over 3.5 goals at around 59%, and our pick follows that at 1.62.

Where we could be wrong

The counter-argument is a cautious Real Madrid, arriving at Camp Nou ready to sit deeper. They lost 0-2 here last season without creating much of note, and their away record this season reads two wins and two defeats with 1.5 goals scored per game. A scoreline like 2-1 would leave the bet with no chance.

  • Two directions drew the same number of AI models: the bet was taken from the one priced closer to the line.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first · as of 25.10
Barcelona
Recent matches: Barcelona
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20.10Paris Saint-GermainChampions LeagueA2:4L
17.10Real BetisA5:2xG 3.1–1.3W
13.10GalatasarayChampions LeagueA4:1xG 2.9–0.4W
10.10GetafeH3:0xG 1.9–0.1W
19.09SevillaA3:1xG 3.5–0.4W
16.09Racing SantanderH7:2W
Real Madrid
Recent matches: Real Madrid
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
21.10LeipzigChampions LeagueH4:1W
18.10SevillaH4:1xG 1.5–0.2W
14.10RomaChampions LeagueA4:3xG 1.5–1.5W
10.10VillarrealH1:0xG 1.4–0.6W
20.09Atlético MadridA1:2xG 0.3–2.4L
15.09ElcheA3:2xG 3.6–0.8W

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstBarcelonaReal MadridLaLiga
goals4.3 / 12.6 / 11.5
xG3.6 / 12.4 / 11.5
shots21.2 / 6.817.6 / 12.813.5
shots on target8.4 / 3.17.2 / 4.44.8
corners7.3 / 2.46.4 / 3.84.9
fouls9.7 / 10.28.6 / 14.112.3
yellow cards1.3 / 1.82.2 / 2.72.2
matches over 2.589%78%
both scored56%67%
clean sheets44%22%
failed to score0%11%
home / away
goals4.3 / 11.5 / 1.5
average total5.33
matches over 2.575%75%
both scored50%75%
  • Barcelona score more than the league average: 4.3 vs 1.5
  • Real Madrid score more than the league average: 2.6 vs 1.5
  • Barcelona: 5 league wins in a row
  • Real Madrid: 4 wins in the last 5 league games
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Barcelona, away games only for Real Madrid

Head to head

last 10

7–0–3Barcelona wins · draws · Real Madrid wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Barcelona vs Real Madrid2:010.05.26
Barcelona vs Real Madrid3:211.01.26Super Cup
Real Madrid vs Barcelona2:126.10.25
Barcelona vs Real Madrid4:311.05.25
Barcelona vs Real Madrid3:226.04.25Copa del Rey
Real Madrid vs Barcelona2:512.01.25Super Cup
Real Madrid vs Barcelona0:426.10.24
Barcelona vs Real Madrid2:103.08.24club friendly
Real Madrid vs Barcelona3:221.04.24
Real Madrid vs Barcelona4:114.01.24Super Cup
  • both scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 9 of 10

League table

League standings: LaLiga
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
1Barcelona99-0-039–927WWWWW
2Atlético Madrid97-1-119–822WWWWW
3Real Betis96-1-216–1419WWDWL
4Real Madrid86-0-219–818LWWLW
5Real Sociedad95-1-317–1716WLWWW

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10

Goals by minute

league season
Barcelona
  • 0-1561
  • 16-3073
  • 31-4541
  • 46-6043
  • 61-7571
  • 76-9092
Real Madrid
  • 0-1520
  • 16-3033
  • 31-4531
  • 46-6013
  • 61-7521
  • 76-9062

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

All LaLiga results
2:1Real Sociedad–LevanteOur pick:11.71prediction won9 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.56X 4.632 5.240:0Celta Vigo–Real BetisOur pick:BTTS1.65prediction lost14 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 3.15X 3.432 2.294:0Athletic Bilbao–GetafeOur pick:U 2.51.67prediction lost5 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 1 more in the same direction1 1.56X 4.032 6.64