1 Nov
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad: AI betting tips and pick
On 1 November, Athletic Bilbao host Real Sociedad. The AI models' pick is both teams to score at 1.68; Real Sociedad have won 4 in a row.
- LaLiga, matchday 11 of 38
- +13°, mostly clear
- San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.68The market prices this option at 55%
Now 1.61 · 1.68 when published
AI models' pick · 9 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 7 chose others
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
likely score
2:1 10%1:0 9%2:0 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 7 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 2 days a Real Sociedad win shortened from 3.48 to 3.32 — money is coming in on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.68 → 1.61 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (both teams score) has shortened from 1.68 to 1.61: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.61−0.07 | 2.20+0.12 | |
| We published both teams score at 1.68 | ||
| 1.68opened | 2.08opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for both teams to score. 2 more each for over 2.5 goals and for under 2.5 goals. The other 3 chose a bet each: double chance and an Athletic Bilbao win.
- 9 of 16BTTSour betodds 1.68ClaudeDeepSeekQwenDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxMistralXiaomi MiMoNemotron SuperNemotron Ultra
- 2 of 16O 2.5odds 1.85Kimi
Dots3-Note - 2 of 16U 2.5odds 1.96
Grok
GLM - 1 of 161Xodds 1.29
Sonar - 1 of 16X2odds 1.78
Gemini - 1 of 161odds 2.04ChatGPT
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 25.10 at 13:01 UTC
Both teams have found the net in the recent meetings between these two: 1-1 at San Mamés in February and a 3-2 win for Real Sociedad in San Sebastián in November 2025. Real Sociedad's away record backs up that pattern. In five trips they have scored 2.4 and conceded 2.2 per game, they have not kept a clean sheet once, and both sides scored in 80% of those matches. Athletic Bilbao average 1.3 goals scored and one conceded at home, with both teams on the scoresheet in half of their home games. The market puts the chance of both teams scoring at 55%.
Where we could be wrong
The question is whether Athletic have enough sharpness up front. Eight goals in nine LaLiga rounds and three matches without a goal suggest the hosts could draw a blank, exactly as they did in this derby in May 2025. Bilbao have also kept a clean sheet in two of their four home matches, so a slow, grinding game suits them.
Even so, the visitors' goals at both ends are hard to ignore, and our pick is both teams to score at 1.68.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Athletic Bilbao| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.10 | Getafe | H | 4:0 | W |
| 21.10 | Levante | A | 1:3 | L |
| 17.10 | Valencia | A | 0:0xG 0.7–1.5 | D |
| 10.10 | Rayo Vallecano | A | 0:0xG 0.1–0.0 | D |
| 02.10 | Real Sociedadclub friendly | A | 1:0 | W |
| 19.09 | Deportivo Alavés | H | 0:0xG 1.6–0.1 | D |
Real Sociedad| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.10 | Levante | H | 2:1 | W |
| 22.10 | LillestrømEuropa League | A | 6:0xG 2.5–2.3 | W |
| 18.10 | Málaga | A | 5:2xG 2.4–1.1 | W |
| 15.10 | Union Saint-GilloiseEuropa League | A | 1:1xG 0.8–1.9 | D |
| 11.10 | Deportivo La Coruña | H | 3:2xG 1.4–2.1 | W |
| 02.10 | Athletic Bilbaoclub friendly | H | 0:1 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | LaLiga |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.3 / 1 | 1.9 / 1.8 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1.4 |
| shots | 15 / 10.2 | 14.4 / 15.5 | 13.5 |
| shots on target | 4.2 / 3.7 | 5.2 / 5.8 | 4.7 |
| corners | 6 / 4.2 | 6.5 / 4.7 | 4.9 |
| fouls | 11.4 / 12.2 | 12.4 / 10.1 | 12.3 |
| yellow cards | 1.9 / 2 | 1.9 / 2.6 | 2.2 |
| matches over 2.5 | 44% | 80% | |
| both scored | 33% | 70% | |
| clean sheets | 56% | 10% | |
| failed to score | 33% | 30% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1.8 / 0.8 | 2.4 / 2.2 | |
| average total | 2.6 | 4.6 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| both scored | 40% | 80% | |
- Athletic Bilbao score less than the league average: 1.3 vs 1.5
- Real Sociedad score more than the league average: 1.9 vs 1.5
- Real Sociedad: 4 league wins in a row
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Athletic Bilbao, away games only for Real Sociedad
Head to head
4–2–4Athletic Bilbao wins · draws · Real Sociedad wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao | 0:1 | 02.10.26 | club friendly |
| Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao | 1:0 | 04.03.26 | Copa del Rey |
| Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad | 0:1 | 11.02.26 | Copa del Rey |
| Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad | 1:1 | 01.02.26 | |
| Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao | 3:2 | 01.11.25 | |
| Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao | 0:0 | 04.05.25 | |
| Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad | 1:0 | 24.11.24 | |
| Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad | 2:1 | 13.01.24 | |
| Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao | 3:0 | 30.09.23 | |
| Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad | 2:0 | 15.04.23 |
- both scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | 6-2-2 | 16–14 | 20 | WDWLD |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | 6-1-3 | 19–18 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | 5-2-3 | 16–16 | 17 | WLDLW |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 10 | 3-3-4 | 14–11 | 12 | LDLLD |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 9 | 3-3-3 | 12–9 | 12 | DDDLW |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | 2-6-2 | 10–7 | 12 | DWDWD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1501
- 16-3022
- 31-4501
- 46-6023
- 61-7520
- 76-9013
- 0-1530
- 16-3030
- 31-4532
- 46-6023
- 61-7537
- 76-9044
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
