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data updated 27.10 08:07

FINISHED

Sevilla vs Osasuna 2:0: result and odds

Sevilla vs Osasuna finished 2:0; before kick-off the odds were 1.82 on a Sevilla win (having opened at 1.96), 4.77 on an Osasuna win and 3.48 on a draw. The AI models' pick was over 2.5 goals at 2.17, and it lost.

published · updated UTC

Sevilla
Osasuna

AI models' pick: Over 2.5 goals

2.17

The market prices this option at 45%

AI models' pick · 12 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 4 chose others

Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results

lost−1.00 unitsclosing odds2.21CLV−2%
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
closing odds
The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
CLV
How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:113%odds 6.09

1:0 9%2:1 9%0:0 9%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 4 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 26.10 19:07

result11.82−0.14X3.48+0.0424.77+0.77
total 2.5O2.21 — matches our bet+0.04U1.68−0.05
both to scoreyes1.98+0.08no1.76−0.07
double chance1X1.19−0.06121.29−0.04X21.99+0.12
handicapH1 −12.50−0.32H2 +11.53+0.13

Over 8 days an Osasuna win drifted from 4.00 to 4.77 — fewer bets on the away side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Over 2.5: 2.17 → 2.21 since we publishedView

Since we published, our bet (over 2.5 goals) has drifted from 2.17 to 2.21: the market now rates it as less likely.

Over 2.52.17 → 2.21our betUnder 2.51.73 → 1.68
1.802.002.203 daysno data18 Oct21 Oct23 Oct24 Oct25 Oct26 OctWe published · 2.17Over 2.5 2.21Under 2.5 1.68

Price changes

Price changes in the Total 2.5 market
WhenOver 2.5 · our betUnder 2.5
2.21−0.021.68+0.01
2.23+0.031.67−0.01
2.201.68−0.01
2.20+0.031.69−0.01
2.17−0.011.70
2.18+0.011.70
2.171.70−0.01
2.17+0.011.71
2.16+0.021.71−0.01
2.141.72+0.01
2.14+0.011.71−0.01
2.13+0.011.72
2.12−0.021.72
2.14−0.021.72+0.01
2.161.71+0.01
2.16−0.011.70−0.03
18 Oct – 21 Oct · no snapshots for 3 days
We published over 2.5 goals at 2.17
2.17opened1.73opened
76 snapshots · the prices changed 16 times

How the match went

half-time 1:0

match report · 26.10 22:06

  1. 24'SevillaIsaac Romero (Youssouf Fofana)1:0
  2. 29'OsasunaAlejandro Catena YC
  3. 55'SevillaIsaac Romero YC
  4. 63'Osasunaon Raul Moro, off Rubén García
  5. 63'Osasunaon Raul García, off Jonathan Dubasin
  6. 63'Sevillaon Robbie Ure, off Lucas Stassin
  7. 68'OsasunaValentin Rosier YC
  8. 71'Sevillaon Rubén Vargas, off Chidera Ejuke
  9. 71'Sevillaon Manuel Bueno Sebastián, off Isaac Romero
  10. 79'Osasunaon Asier Osambela, off Lucas Torró
  11. 79'Osasunaon Enrique Barja Alfonso, off Moi Gómez
  12. 79'Osasunaon Íñigo Arguibide, off Valentin Rosier
  13. 82'SevillaFelix Correia (Youssouf Fofana)2:0
  14. 86'Sevillaon José Ángel Carmona, off Felix Correia
Match stats: Sevilla vs Osasuna
SevillastatOsasuna
1.18expected goals (xG)0.79
17shots10
7on target2
44%possession56%
7corners4
11fouls8
2saves5
1yellow cards2
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Sevilla

formation 4-4-2 · manager Luis García

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1O. Vlachodimos6.9
  • 17G. Suazo7.1
  • 4Kike Salas7.0
  • 5Andrés Castrín7.1
  • 2Juan Iglesias6.4
  • 20Félix Correia — highest feed rating in the match8.1
  • 24Y. Fofana7.6
  • 6L. Agoumé6.6
  • 21C. Ejuke6.2
  • 19L. Stassin6.5
  • 16Isaac7.8
substitutes
  • 22José Ángel Carmonaon 86'6.5
  • 3Julio Díaz del Romo
  • 10Peque Fernández
  • 7Alfon González
  • 13Fran González
  • 18Jon Guridi
  • 8G. Kochorashvili
  • 15Fábio Cardoso
  • 12A. Sangante
  • 9R. Ureon 63'6.4
  • 11R. Vargason 71'7.2
  • 14Manu Buenoon 71'6.8
Osasuna

formation 4-3-3 · manager Arrasate

starting XIfeed rating
  • 13Aitor Fernández7.6
  • 23Abel Bretones6.1
  • 22F. Boyomo6.4
  • 24Catena6.0
  • 19V. Rosier6.0
  • 16Moi Gómez6.8
  • 6Lucas Torró6.2
  • 7Moncayola6.5
  • 21Jonathan Dubasin6.2
  • 17A. Budimir6.3
  • 14Rubén García6.4
substitutes
  • 1Sergio Herrera
  • 31Rafa Fernández
  • 27Íñigo Arguibideon 79'6.1
  • 35U. Santos
  • 29Asier Osambelaon 79'5.8
  • 48R. Yeboah
  • 15Diego Rico
  • 26Mauro Echegoyen
  • 18Raul Moroon 63'6.6
  • 8Iker Muñoz
  • 9Raúl Garcíaon 63'6.3
  • 11Kike Barjaon 79'5.9

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet lost. 3 more bet on both teams to score — the bet lost. One more bet on Sevilla not losing.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:54 UTC

Osasuna travel without the handbrake on. All four of their away matches have gone over 2.5 goals, with 1.5 scored and 3.8 conceded per game, and not one of them saw a clean sheet. Sevilla have cleared the same mark in three of their four at home, where both teams found the net in 75% of the games.

Despite that, the market is lukewarm: a price of 2.17 makes over 2.5 goals less than an even chance, even though neither of these sides, in these roles, tends to get through a match without conceding. That is where the value sits, and our pick is over 2.5 goals at 2.17.

Where we could be wrong

The previous meetings pull the other way. Goals have been scarce in the last five: 2-1 in April, before that 1-0, 1-0 and a pair of 1-1 draws, and back in September 2023 it finished 0-0. Add Sevilla's blunt attack — six goals in five LaLiga matches, 41.4% possession and under one xG per game — and the risk is clear. If the hosts settle into another slow, sticky affair, two goals may be as much as the game produces.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first · as of 26.10
Sevilla
Recent matches: Sevilla
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18.10Real MadridA1:4xG 0.2–1.5L
12.10LevanteA3:3xG 2.2–1.9D
02.10Aston Villaclub friendlyH1:3L
19.09BarcelonaH1:3xG 0.4–3.5L
16.09Deportivo La CoruñaA1:0W
11.09ValenciaH1:0W
Osasuna
Recent matches: Osasuna
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18.10Racing SantanderH2:0xG 3.4–0.3W
11.10Real BetisA2:5xG 1.9–2.9L
19.09Rayo VallecanoH1:1xG 0.5–1.0D
16.09Atlético MadridA0:4L
12.09EspanyolH0:2L
06.09Deportivo AlavésA2:5xG 1.6–1.2L

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstSevillaOsasunaLaLiga
goals1.6 / 1.81.1 / 21.5
xG1 / 1.41.6 / 1.41.5
shots11.8 / 12.710.8 / 13.213.5
shots on target4.3 / 54.3 / 3.94.8
corners3 / 3.43.6 / 4.94.9
fouls14.7 / 1314.7 / 12.312.3
yellow cards2.9 / 1.92.7 / 1.92.2
matches over 2.567%44%
both scored78%44%
clean sheets22%33%
failed to score0%33%
home / away
goals1.3 / 1.81.5 / 3.8
average total35.3
matches over 2.575%100%
both scored75%75%
  • Sevilla shoot less often than the league average: 11.8 shots vs 13.5
  • Osasuna score less than the league average: 1.1 vs 1.5
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Sevilla, away games only for Osasuna

Head to head

last 10

1–4–5Sevilla wins · draws · Osasuna wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Osasuna vs Sevilla2:126.04.26
Sevilla vs Osasuna1:008.11.25
Osasuna vs Sevilla1:024.04.25
Sevilla vs Osasuna1:102.12.24
Sevilla vs Osasuna1:128.01.24
Osasuna vs Sevilla0:023.09.23
Sevilla vs Osasuna2:326.02.23
Osasuna vs Sevilla2:125.01.23Copa del Rey
Osasuna vs Sevilla2:112.08.22
Osasuna vs Sevilla0:005.02.22
  • both scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 4 of 10

League table

League standings: LaLiga
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
5Real Sociedad95-1-317–1716WLWWW
6Sevilla84-2-213–1214DWWLD
7Deportivo Alavés93-2-413–1011LLDLL
9Deportivo La Coruña92-5-213–1211DLDLD
10Osasuna93-2-410–1811LLDLW
11Athletic Bilbao72-3-27–69WDDD

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10

Goals by minute

league season
Sevilla
  • 0-1522
  • 16-3012
  • 31-4501
  • 46-6052
  • 61-7512
  • 76-90+43
Osasuna
  • 0-1503
  • 16-3013
  • 31-4512
  • 46-6053
  • 61-7523
  • 76-9003

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

All LaLiga results
1:2Barcelona–Real MadridOur pick:O 3.51.62prediction lost6 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 2 more in the same direction1 1.59X 5.702 4.102:1Real Sociedad–LevanteOur pick:11.71prediction won9 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.56X 4.632 5.240:0Celta Vigo–Real BetisOur pick:BTTS1.65prediction lost14 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 3.15X 3.432 2.29