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data updated 27.10 08:07

1 Nov

Marseille vs Toulouse: AI betting tips and pick

On 1 November, Marseille host Toulouse. The AI models' pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.58; Marseille have won 3 in a row.

published · updated UTC

Marseille
Toulouse

AI models' pick: Over 2.5 goals

1.58

The market prices this option at 60%

AI models' pick · 8 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 8 chose others

Under half back the bet

Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results

Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:111%odds 7.48

2:1 9%1:2 7%2:0 7%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 7 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

Match odds

last line update 27.10 03:19

result11.90+0.06X3.84−0.0623.60−0.22
total 2.5O1.58 — matches our betU2.39−0.02
both to scoreyes1.52−0.01no2.40+0.01
double chance1X1.27+0.02121.24X21.90−0.06
handicapH1 −1.53.27+0.17H2 +1.51.32−0.03

Over 2 days a Toulouse win shortened from 3.82 to 3.60 — money is coming in on the away side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Over 2.5: 1.58 → 1.58 since we publishedView

This market has barely moved: Over 2.5 1.58 → 1.58, Under 2.5 2.41 → 2.39.

Over 2.51.58 → 1.58our betUnder 2.52.41 → 2.39
1.601.802.002.202.4025 Oct27 OctWe published · 1.58Under 2.5 2.39Over 2.5 1.58

Price changes

Price changes in the Total 2.5 market
WhenOver 2.5 · our betUnder 2.5
1.582.39−0.02
We published over 2.5 goals at 1.58
1.58opened2.41opened
2 snapshots · the prices changed 1 time

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models went for over 2.5 goals. 6 more went for both teams to score. The other 2 went for a Marseille win.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 25.10 at 14:42 UTC

All three of Marseille's home matches this season have gone over 2.5 goals, and so have all four of Toulouse's trips on the road. At home Marseille score 2.3 per game and concede 1.7; away from home Toulouse match that 2.3 while shipping 1.5, and both teams found the net in three of their four away fixtures. The previous meetings tell the same story: 2-2 in November 2025, 2-2 in the Coupe de France in March 2026, 3-2 in April 2025. Across their last five games Marseille have scored 10 and conceded eight, Toulouse 10 and seven. The market puts the chance of over 2.5 goals at around 60%.

Where we could be wrong

What if Marseille choose to tighten up and shut down the middle? Last spring Marseille won 1-0 away to Toulouse, the hosts already have two clean sheets this season, and their xG balance is in the red at 1.52 against 1.72. Toulouse, for their part, have drawn three times on their travels and know how to slow the tempo when the scoreline suits them. Even so, our pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.58.

  • 8 of 16 AI models back this bet: it is the most common answer, but the other half chose something else.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first · as of 27.10
Marseille
Recent matches: Marseille
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
25.10Le HavreH4:3W
22.10Sturm GrazEuropa LeagueA0:1xG 0.8–1.9L
18.10AngersA5:2xG 2.8–2.1W
15.10OlympiacosEuropa LeagueH0:1xG 0.9–0.6L
11.10TroyesA2:0xG 1.3–1.1W
20.09Paris Saint-GermainH1:2xG 1.8–4.3L
Toulouse
Recent matches: Toulouse
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
25.10TroyesH0:0D
16.10Le MansA3:0xG 1.8–1.0W
10.10MonacoA2:2xG 1.5–1.3D
03.10PAUclub friendlyH2:3L
19.09Le HavreH3:2xG 1.9–2.3W
12.09LorientA2:2D

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstMarseilleToulouseLigue 1
goals2.3 / 1.61.5 / 1.41.5
xG1.7 / 2.31.9 / 1.31.6
shots12.9 / 16.612.8 / 13.813.4
shots on target4.9 / 5.54.4 / 3.94.7
corners4.4 / 4.34.1 / 4.14.6
fouls11.3 / 10.916 / 13.112.3
yellow cards1.3 / 2.32.1 / 1.51.8
matches over 2.563%63%
both scored50%50%
clean sheets25%25%
failed to score25%38%
home / away
goals2.8 / 22.3 / 1.5
average total4.83.8
matches over 2.5100%100%
both scored75%75%
  • Marseille score more than the league average: 2.3 vs 1.5
  • Marseille: 3 league wins in a row
  • Toulouse unbeaten in the last 5 league games
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Marseille, away games only for Toulouse

Head to head

last 10

6–4–0Marseille wins · draws · Toulouse wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Toulouse vs Marseille0:107.03.26
Marseille vs Toulouse2:204.03.26Coupe de France
Marseille vs Toulouse2:229.11.25
Marseille vs Toulouse3:206.04.25
Toulouse vs Marseille1:331.08.24
Toulouse vs Marseille2:221.04.24
Marseille vs Toulouse0:017.09.23
Toulouse vs Marseille2:319.02.23
Marseille vs Toulouse6:129.12.22
Marseille vs Toulouse1:008.02.20
  • both scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 7 of 10

League table

League standings: Ligue 1
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
7Lens84-1-316–1213DLWWW
8Marseille84-0-418–1312LLWWW
9Lorient83-3-27–612DLWWD
10Nice83-2-38–1011LWWLW
11Toulouse82-4-212–1110DWDWD
12Auxerre83-1-412–1810WWLWD

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right

Goals by minute

league season
Marseille
  • 0-1513
  • 16-3001
  • 31-4520
  • 46-6042
  • 61-7523
  • 76-9051
Toulouse
  • 0-1510
  • 16-3002
  • 31-4503
  • 46-6070
  • 61-7523
  • 76-9023

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

Full Ligue 1 fixtures
16:15Paris–MonacoOur pick:12.2614 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 1 more in the same direction1 2.25X 3.582 2.9414:00Strasbourg–AuxerreOur pick:BTTS1.5410 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.82X 3.892 3.9019:45Lyon–AngersOur pick:H1 (−1.5)2.1110 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.39X 4.972 7.07