FINISHED
Coventry City vs Fulham 0:1: result and odds
Coventry City vs Fulham finished 0:1; before kick-off the odds were 2.26 on a Fulham win (having opened at 2.32), 3.16 on a Coventry City win and 3.49 on a draw. The AI models' pick was Coventry City +0 handicap at 2.16, and it lost.
- Referee: Adam Herczeg · 5 yellow cards per match
- Premier League, matchday 8 of 38
- +10°, drizzle, wind 30 km/h
- The Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Coventry City +0 handicap
2.16The market prices this option at 44%
Draw no bet: the stake is returned if the match ends level.
AI models' pick · 5 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 1 more in the same direction
Under half back the betOur football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
likely score
1:2 9%2:1 8%0:1 7% — this score came in
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 6 days a Coventry City win drifted from 2.96 to 3.16 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementCoventry City 2.96 → 3.16 over 6 days · 67 snapshotsView
The biggest move is a Coventry City win: from 2.96 to 3.16 — 1.7 pp of implied chance, more than any other outcome.
Price changes
| When | Coventry City | Draw | Fulham |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.16+0.01 | 3.49 | 2.26 | |
| 3.15 | 3.49−0.01 | 2.26 | |
| 3.15+0.01 | 3.50 | 2.26 | |
| 3.14+0.08 | 3.50+0.03 | 2.26−0.01 | |
| 3.06−0.04 | 3.47+0.04 | 2.27 | |
| 3.10+0.02 | 3.43−0.02 | 2.27 | |
| 3.08+0.04 | 3.45−0.03 | 2.27−0.04 | |
| 3.04+0.12 | 3.48−0.01 | 2.31−0.01 | |
| 2.92−0.04 | 3.49−0.01 | 2.32 | |
| 18 Oct – 20 Oct · no snapshots for 36 h | |||
| 2.96opened | 3.50opened | 2.32opened | |
How the match went
Oscar Bobb scored the only goal on 80 minutes, with Josh King providing the assist after a goalless first half. Fulham won 1-0 away to Coventry City, so our Coventry City draw no bet at 2.16 went down. Fulham held 64% of the ball against 36%, and the expected goals were 0.61 to 0.58 in their favour. Coventry City had 13 shots to 12 but put two on target to three. Both yellow cards went to the visitors, for Shea Charles and Antonee Robinson. Before kick-off the market rated a Fulham win at 2.26, a Coventry City win at 3.16 and the draw at 3.49. With one goal in the match, the under side of the 2.5 line won, and both teams to score finished as no, which was on offer at 2.26.
- 36'Shea Charles YC
- 60'on Stephen Mfuni, off Bobby Thomas
- 63'on Sander Berge, off Hugo Larsson
- 67'on Frank Onyeka, off Caleb Yirenkyi
- 67'on Taiwo Awoniyi, off Sidiki Cherif
- 67'on Ephron Mason-Clark, off Brandon Thomas-Asante
- 74'on Rodrigo Muniz, off Gonzalo García
- 74'on Cesar Palacios Perez, off Alex Iwobi
- 80'Oscar Bobb (Josh King)0:1
- 81'on Kenny Tete, off Oscar Bobb
- 81'on Tom Cairney, off Josh King
- 82'Antonee Robinson YC
- 86'on Gustavo Hamer, off Tatsuhiro Sakamoto
| Coventry City | stat | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | expected goals (xG) | 0.61 |
| 13 | shots | 12 |
| 2 | on target | 3 |
| 36% | possession | 64% |
| 4 | corners | 6 |
| 9 | fouls | 11 |
| 2 | saves | 2 |
| 0 | yellow cards | 2 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Coventry City- 19C. Rushworth6.4
- 3J. Dasilva6.8
- 2E. Pinnock7.0
- 4B. Thomas6.6
- 27M. van Ewijk6.4
- 8Caleb Marfo Yirenkyi5.8
- 6M. Grimes6.6
- 23B. Thomas-Asante5.9
- 5J. Rudoni6.5
- 7T. Sakamoto6.2
- 49S. Cherif6.7
- 25D. Bentley
- 12S. Mfunion 60'6.0
- 20K. Kesler-Hayden
- 10E. Mason-Clarkon 67'6.1
- 16F. Onyekaon 67'6.3
- 29V. Torp
- 38G. Hameron 86'6.3
- 14T. Awoniyion 67'6.2
- 34Y. Gboho
Fulham- 1B. Leno7.3
- 33A. Robinson6.1
- 3C. Bassey7.1
- 22D. Affengruber7.0
- 21T. Castagne6.9
- 19S. Charles7.1
- 15H. Larsson6.3
- 17A. Iwobi6.7
- 24Joshua King7.7
- 14Oscar Bobb — highest feed rating in the match8.2
- 7Gonzalo García6.4
- 2K. Teteon 81'6.7
- 5J. Andersen
- 16S. Bergeon 63'7.2
- 10T. Cairneyon 81'6.5
- 20Manuel Ángel
- 11Kevin
- 8César Palacioson 74'6.6
- 9Rodrigo Munizon 74'6.8
- 23B. Lecomte
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on Coventry City draw no bet — the bet lost. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: Coventry City not losing and a Coventry City win. 3 more each on under 2.5 goals (won) and on a Fulham win (won). The other 4 chose a bet each: both teams to score, a Fulham handicap, a total-goals bet and 'both to score — no'.
- 4 of 16DNB 1our betodds 2.16DeepSeekQwen
GLMNemotron Ultralost - 1 of 161Xsame directionodds 1.61
Geminilost - 1 of 161same directionodds 2.96DeepSeek Flashlost
- 3 of 16U 2.5odds 2.09ClaudeMiniMax
Sonarwon - 3 of 162odds 2.32
GrokKimiNemotron Superwon - 1 of 16BTTSodds 1.59Mistrallost
- 1 of 16DNB 2odds 1.70ChatGPTwon
- 1 of 16O 2.5odds 1.75
Dots3-Notelost - 1 of 16BTTS noodds 2.23Xiaomi MiMowon
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:54 UTC
Two sides from the bottom end of the Premier League table meet, and the telling detail is how little Fulham have offered on the road. In three away matches they average 0.3 goals and have yet to win, with one draw and two defeats, yet the market still makes them the favourites at 2.32 against 2.96 on the hosts. Coventry City arrive on the back of two straight wins, and they were the better team in both previous meetings, winning 4-1 at home in October 2021 and 3-1 away in April 2022. We're backing Coventry City draw no bet, which returns the stake if the game finishes level — and the draw is rated at 27%.
Where we could be wrong
The risk is at the other end. Coventry concede 2.3 goals a game at home and have not kept a clean sheet in any match, so one good spell from the visitors could settle it. Fulham are clearly stronger on possession, 56.3% to 39%, and on xG too. If their chances finally start going in, the draw insurance will not be enough to save the bet.
- 5 of 16 AI models back this bet and 1 more chose a close bet in the same direction: it is the most common answer, but more than half chose something else.
- Bookmakers: Fulham looks more likely.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Coventry City| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.10 | Tottenham Hotspur | A | 1:3 | L |
| 12.10 | Newcastle United | H | 4:1xG 1.5–1.9 | W |
| 19.09 | Nottingham Forest | A | 1:0xG 0.7–1.1 | W |
| 16.09 | Aston VillaEFL Cup | H | 1:3 | L |
| 13.09 | Brighton & Hove Albion | H | 0:5xG 1.3–2.8 | L |
| 05.09 | Manchester City | A | 0:1xG 1.4–2.1 | L |
Fulham| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Hull City | H | 1:0xG 1.5–0.2 | W |
| 10.10 | Ipswich Town | A | 1:2xG 1.8–1.1 | L |
| 20.09 | Manchester United | H | 1:1xG 1.6–1.6 | D |
| 15.09 | West Ham UnitedEFL Cup | A | 3:2 | W |
| 12.09 | Liverpool | A | 0:0xG 0.7–1.3 | D |
| 05.09 | Crystal Palace | H | 2:3xG 3.1–2.0 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | EPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 0.9 / 2 | 1 / 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.5 |
| shots | 10.3 / 17.4 | 14.7 / 14.1 | 13.8 |
| shots on target | 3.3 / 4.7 | 4.7 / 4.1 | 4.4 |
| corners | 3.7 / 4.7 | 6.1 / 4.3 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 11 / 11 | 10.4 / 8.4 | 11.5 |
| yellow cards | 1.1 / 1.4 | 2 / 1 | 2 |
| matches over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | |
| both scored | 29% | 57% | |
| clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| failed to score | 57% | 29% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1.3 / 2.3 | 0.3 / 1 | |
| average total | 3.7 | 1.3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| both scored | 33% | 33% | |
- Coventry City score less than the league average: 0.9 vs 1.5
- Fulham score less than the league average: 1 vs 1.5
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Coventry City, away games only for Fulham
Head to head
2–0–0Coventry City wins · draws · Fulham wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham vs Coventry City | 1:3 | 10.04.22 | Championship |
| Coventry City vs Fulham | 4:1 | 02.10.21 | Championship |
- both scored in 2 of the last 2 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 2
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bournemouth | 7 | 1-3-3 | 9–13 | 6 | DDLLW |
| 16 | Coventry City | 6 | 2-0-4 | 5–11 | 6 | LLLWW |
| 17 | Fulham | 7 | 1-2-4 | 7–10 | 5 | LDDLW |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 7 | 1-2-4 | 5–9 | 5 | DWLLL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10
Goals by minute
- 0-1511
- 16-3002
- 31-4501
- 46-6022
- 61-7502
- 76-9023
- 0-1511
- 16-3010
- 31-4522
- 46-6022
- 61-7502
- 76-9004
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
