Accumulator for 20 October
6 selections from the day’s matches, one per match, from most likely to riskiest. There is no ready-made acca here: take as many legs as you see fit, and each row shows what the combination down to it adds up to.
Selection ladder
| # | Match | Selection | Probability | First N together |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe — Slavia PragueUCL · 16:45 UTC | Either team to win1.22 | 77% | this row77% · 1.22 | |
| Paris Saint-Germain — BarcelonaUCL · 19:00 UTC | Over 2.5 goals1.25 | 75% | first 258% · 1.53 | |
| Manchester City — AEK AthensUCL · 19:00 UTC | Manchester City −1.5 handicap1.28 | 74% | first 343% · 1.95 | |
| Sabah — Borussia DortmundUCL · 16:45 UTC | Borussia Dortmund to win1.30 | 73% | first 431% · 2.54 | |
| Roma — Slovan BratislavaUCL · 19:00 UTC | Roma −1.5 handicap1.38 | 69% | first 522% · 3.50 | |
| Stuttgart — Atlético MadridUCL · 19:00 UTC | Atlético Madrid or draw1.40 | 67% | first 614% · 4.90 | |
Tick selections in the ladder to see the odds and chance of your acca. Your bet0Odds—Our chance— | ||||
Probability the chance the market has priced into this selection’s odds.
First N together the chance that every selection down to this row wins, and the odds of that acca.
the acca down to this row lands more than half the timeless than halfless than one in five. The colour is about the acca as a whole, not any single selection.
About this accumulator
Fenerbahçe rarely let visiting sides off lightly at home in the Champions League, and against Slavia Prague, either team to win holds a 77% chance. Any outcome other than a draw lands the bet, while the main tip needs a home win. Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona look set for a shootout: over 2.5 goals is rated at 75%, and three goals between them are much easier to find than the four demanded by the primary market. Backing the Manchester City -1.5 handicap against AEK Athens sits at 74%; the hosts hold nearly a 1.5-fold advantage in expected goals, and a win by two or more goals is enough instead of three. The other favourites follow the same pattern: Borussia Dortmund to win against Sabah at 73% and the Roma -1.5 handicap against Slovan Bratislava at 69% both steer clear of needing a heavy margin.
The steepest risk is tucked into the final two selections. Stuttgart look sturdier on their own patch by attacking metrics, but Atlético Madrid edge the expected goals, and backing Atlético Madrid or draw at 67% simply requires them to avoid defeat where the main tip asks for an away win. Sabah could also cause trouble for Borussia Dortmund: while there is an undeniable gulf in class, the underlying numbers show no obvious defensive collapse from the hosts, meaning a straight away win at 73% is hardly a formality. The top three tips combine for a 43% chance at odds of 1.95, while the full six-fold acca offers a 14% chance at 4.9.
Questions about this accumulator
What is the accumulator for 20 October?
6 selections from the day’s matches, from Fenerbahçe — Slavia Prague (Either team to win at 1.22) to Stuttgart — Atlético Madrid (Atlético Madrid or draw at 1.40). The top three combined come to odds of 1.95 and, by our estimate, land 43% of the time; all 6 come to 4.90 and 14%.
How many selections should go into an accumulator?
The more selections, the lower the chance and the more the bookmaker’s margin compounds. On this ladder the top three have a 43% chance, the top five 22%, all 6 14%.