Accumulator for 21 October
6 selections from the day’s matches, one per match, from most likely to riskiest. There is no ready-made acca here: take as many legs as you see fit, and each row shows what the combination down to it adds up to.
Selection ladder
| # | Match | Selection | Probability | First N together |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter — Shakhtar DonetskUCL · 19:00 UTC | Inter to win1.21 | 78% | this row78% · 1.21 | |
| Lille — GalatasarayUCL · 16:45 UTC | Over 1.5 goals1.21 | 77% | first 260% · 1.46 | |
| Sporting CP — LASKUCL · 19:00 UTC | Sporting CP to win1.25 | 76% | first 346% · 1.83 | |
| Real Madrid — LeipzigUCL · 19:00 UTC | Real Madrid to win1.26 | 75% | first 434% · 2.31 | |
| Aston Villa — VikingUCL · 19:00 UTC | Aston Villa to win1.26 | 75% | first 526% · 2.91 | |
| Como — Manchester UnitedUCL · 16:45 UTC | Como or draw1.40 | 67% | first 617% · 4.07 | |
Tick selections in the ladder to see the odds and chance of your acca. Your bet0Odds—Our chance— | ||||
Probability the chance the market has priced into this selection’s odds.
First N together the chance that every selection down to this row wins, and the odds of that acca.
the acca down to this row lands more than half the timeless than halfless than one in five. The colour is about the acca as a whole, not any single selection.
About this accumulator
Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk looks very one-sided on paper: in five head-to-heads the Ukrainian side have failed to score against the Milanese even once, while Inter to win is rated at 78% with odds of 1.21. Taking the Inter -1.5 handicap is unnecessary when any victory lands the bet. A similar approach works for Sporting CP vs LASK: the Lisbon club hold a clear edge in attacking xG (1.93 to 0.98), so taking Sporting CP to win without requiring a win by two or more goals provides a 76% chance instead of 56% on the main tip. Rounding out this group is Lille vs Galatasaray, where both defences have struggled and the visitors have conceded 12 goals in five matches. Rather than insisting on both teams to score, the acca settles on over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance.
Further down the slip, the risk begins to build. Real Madrid vs Leipzig and Aston Villa vs Viking are also trimmed to simple home wins, with Real Madrid to win and Aston Villa to win each priced at 1.26 with a 75% chance. A win by a single goal is plenty for either favourite, taking off the pressure to win by two or more goals. The riskiest pick is Como vs Manchester United, where Como to win at 2.29 is swapped for Como or draw at 1.4. Recording 59.7% possession and 20 shots per game, the Italian hosts merely need to avoid defeat, but with the market rating that at 67%, this match decides whether the accumulator lands. The first three tips combined offer a 46% chance at odds of 1.83, while all six together yield 17% and 4.07.
Questions about this accumulator
What is the accumulator for 21 October?
6 selections from the day’s matches, from Inter — Shakhtar Donetsk (Inter to win at 1.21) to Como — Manchester United (Como or draw at 1.40). The top three combined come to odds of 1.83 and, by our estimate, land 46% of the time; all 6 come to 4.07 and 17%.
How many selections should go into an accumulator?
The more selections, the lower the chance and the more the bookmaker’s margin compounds. On this ladder the top three have a 46% chance, the top five 26%, all 6 17%.