Accumulator for 22 October
10 selections from the day’s matches, one per match, from most likely to riskiest. There is no ready-made acca here: take as many legs as you see fit, and each row shows what the combination down to it adds up to.
Selection ladder
| # | Match | Selection | Probability | First N together |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia Białystok — AnderlechtUEL · 19:00 UTC | Over 1.5 goals1.21 | 77% | this row77% · 1.21 | |
| Lech Poznań — SunderlandUEL · 16:45 UTC | Either team to win1.24 | 77% | first 259% · 1.50 | |
| Dinamo Zagreb — NECUEL · 16:45 UTC | Either team to win1.24 | 77% | first 346% · 1.86 | |
| Celje — SalzburgUEL · 19:00 UTC | Either team to win1.25 | 76% | first 435% · 2.33 | |
| Celtic — Celta VigoUEL · 19:00 UTC | Over 1.5 goals1.23 | 75% | first 526% · 2.86 | |
| OFI Crete — Bayer LeverkusenUEL · 16:45 UTC | Bayer Leverkusen to win1.26 | 75% | first 620% · 3.60 | |
| Bournemouth — MilanUEL · 19:00 UTC | Either team to win1.30 | 73% | first 714% · 4.69 | |
| Hoffenheim — LyonUEL · 19:00 UTC | Lyon +1.5 handicap1.29 | 72% | first 810% · 6.04 | |
| Beşiktaş — Crystal PalaceUEL · 19:00 UTC | Beşiktaş or draw1.37 | 69% | first 97% · 8.28 | |
| Ferencváros — TorreenseUEL · 16:45 UTC | Ferencváros to win1.38 | 69% | first 105% · 11.43 | |
Tick selections in the ladder to see the odds and chance of your acca. Your bet0Odds—Our chance— | ||||
Probability the chance the market has priced into this selection’s odds.
First N together the chance that every selection down to this row wins, and the odds of that acca.
the acca down to this row lands more than half the timeless than halfless than one in five. The colour is about the acca as a whole, not any single selection.
About this accumulator
Anderlecht's trip to Jagiellonia Białystok provides the day's safest goals angle, with over 1.5 goals rated at 77%: the hosts have conceded nine goals across four matches this season with 1.86 expected goals against, and two goals between both sides are plenty without needing both teams to find the net. That same benchmark applies to Lech Poznań vs Sunderland and Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC, where backing either team to win removes the need to pick a single favourite. Further down the slip, the same logic holds in Celje vs Salzburg, where either team to win carries a 76% chance, while in Celtic vs Celta Vigo, taking over 1.5 goals at 75% replaces a both-teams-to-score bet, as the Scottish side's defence concedes too frequently to keep a clean sheet.
The bigger Europa League favourites round out the accumulator without needing to win by two or more goals: Bayer Leverkusen to win is preferred over the -1.5 handicap against OFI Crete, just as Ferencváros to win replaces that same margin against Torreense. Closer matchups bring more risk: Bournemouth vs Milan accepts either team to win instead of draw no bet, in Hoffenheim vs Lyon the visitors only need the Lyon +1.5 handicap rather than a double chance after three consecutive draws in previous meetings, and in Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace the Istanbul hosts only need Beşiktaş or draw rather than an outright win. Backing the first three tips together returns combined odds of 1.86 at 46%, while all ten selections combine for an 11.43 acca with a 5% chance.
Questions about this accumulator
What is the accumulator for 22 October?
10 selections from the day’s matches, from Jagiellonia Białystok — Anderlecht (Over 1.5 goals at 1.21) to Ferencváros — Torreense (Ferencváros to win at 1.38). The top three combined come to odds of 1.86 and, by our estimate, land 46% of the time; all 10 come to 11.43 and 5%.
How many selections should go into an accumulator?
The more selections, the lower the chance and the more the bookmaker’s margin compounds. On this ladder the top three have a 46% chance, the top five 26%, all 10 5%.