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Astralis vs fnatic: AI prediction, Stake Ranked Episode 5
Astralis and fnatic meet on 27 October — playoffs, upper bracket quarter-final, Stake Ranked Episode 5 2026, best of three. The AI models' bet: Astralis to win at 1.72 — 10 of 16 models chose it. Below: the analysis, the odds, team form by series, rosters with player ratings and the map pool.
- Stake Ranked Episode 5 2026
- Playoffs, upper bracket quarter-final
- Best of three
- Stream
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Astralis to win
1.72The market prices this option at 57%
AI models' pick · 10 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 6 chose others
Match odds
Since the first snapshot Astralis have drifted: 1.67 → 1.75, fnatic — 2.44 → 2.27. The money is going on fnatic.
abbreviations
- 1, 2 — Astralis or fnatic wins the series
- H1, H2 — map handicap: −1.5 means winning the series without dropping a map, +1.5 means taking at least one map
- O, U — total maps over or under: over 2.5 means the series goes to a third map
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for an Astralis win. 4 more chose close bets in the same direction: Astralis −1.5 on maps. 5 more went for over 2.5 maps. One more went for under 2.5 maps.
- 6 of 161our betodds 1.72ChatGPT
Gemini
GLMMiniMax
Sonar
Dots3-Note - 4 of 16H1 (−1.5)same directionodds 2.70
GrokKimiDeepSeek FlashMistral - 5 of 16O 2.5odds 2.13ClaudeDeepSeekQwenXiaomi MiMoNemotron Ultra
- 1 of 16U 2.5odds 1.79Nemotron Super
Odds — the price at the moment the AI model answered.
Astralis have won seven of their last ten series, but the names on that list matter: those wins came against Nemiga (14th) and Luminosity (16th). Over the same stretch fnatic went down 0-2 to PRIVATE (95th) and lost 1-2 to PARIVISION (36th). The veto reads well for the Danes too. Astralis ban Anubis first (9 of 12), taking away the map where fnatic sit at 9-2, while fnatic have removed Nuke on all 20 occasions. That leaves Ancient, Astralis' most frequent pick with nine selections and an 11-3 record. There have been only two previous meetings, both won by Astralis, the October one a 2-0 that included Ancient 13-3.
Where we could be wrong
We're backing Astralis at 1.72, with the obvious caveat around their schedule: 11 days have passed since their last series and they have not played a single map in the past week, while fnatic have five in that same period. The veto is not locked in either, and Dust2 (1-4) and Inferno (4-6) are still sitting in the Danish map pool. Astralis' best-of-three series have gone to a third map 15 of 20 times, and fnatic have already managed a 2-0 against Liquid (19th).
Form, rosters and maps
Astralis
10th in the Valve ranking · 1674 points
roster · player rating over six months
- siuhy5.37
- ryu6.20
- Staehr6.53
- phzy6.22
- cmtry5.69
recent series · 7 wins, 3 losses
- L1-2MIBR#12Stake Pulse Beat III16.10
- W2-1HOTU#31Stake Pulse Beat III14.10
- W2-0Sashi#73Stake Pulse Beat III14.10
- W3-1Nemiga#14Stake Ranked Episode 404.10
- W2-1Luminosity#16Stake Ranked Episode 404.10
- W2-0fnatic#35Stake Ranked Episode 403.10
- W2-1BIG#25Stake Ranked Episode 403.10
- W2-1FaZe#26Stake Ranked Episode 402.10
- L1-2Alliance#24Stake Ranked Episode 401.10
- L1-2100 Thieves#28Stake Pulse Beat II26.09
maps over 90 days
34–26, round difference +121; 15 of 20 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 57%, on the T side 52%, pistol rounds 50%
11 days since the last series, 0 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ancient | 11–3 | +52 | 9 | |
| Cache | 9–2 | +55 | ||
| Inferno | 4–6 | +3 | 2 | 1 |
| Nuke | 5–5 | +22 | 4 | |
| Mirage | 4–4 | +13 | 4 | |
| Dust2 | 1–4 | −13 | 6 | |
| Anubis | 0–2 | −11 | 10 |
Bans Anubis first in 9 of 12 series
fnatic
35th in the Valve ranking · 1417 points
roster · player rating over six months
- fEAR5.77
- jambo6.60
- jackasmo6.38
- cairne6.38
- mazay6.20
recent series · 6 wins, 4 losses
- L0-2PRIVATE#951win Private Club 221.10
- L1-2PARIVISION#361win Private Club 220.10
- W2-0Liquid#191win Private Club 219.10
- L0-2HEROIC#15Stake Pulse Beat III16.10
- W2-0HOTU#31Stake Pulse Beat III14.10
- W2-0Sashi#73Stake Pulse Beat III14.10
- L0-2HOTU#31Stake Pulse Beat III14.10
- W2-1HOTU#311win Private Club 2: Closed Qualifier10.10
- W2-1K27#321win Private Club 2: Closed Qualifier09.10
- W2-1Phantom#721win Private Club 2: Closed Qualifier07.10
maps over 90 days
53–33, round difference +145; 15 of 34 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 55%, on the T side 53%, pistol rounds 56%
6 days since the last series, 5 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cache | 16–4 | +69 | 7 | |
| Ancient | 12–7 | +32 | 5 | 1 |
| Inferno | 9–5 | +25 | 4 | |
| Anubis | 9–2 | +38 | 5 | 1 |
| Dust2 | 3–8 | −23 | 2 | 6 |
| Mirage | 4–7 | +4 | 9 | |
| Nuke | — | 20 |
Bans Nuke first in 20 of 20 series
head-to-head series, last two years
2 series: Astralis 2 wins, fnatic 0 wins
- W2-0Dust2 13-6, Ancient 13-3Stake Ranked Episode 403.10
- W2-1Mirage 12-16, Overpass 13-11, Ancient 13-4BLAST Bounty Winter 2026: Closed Qualifier13.01
Valve ranking as of 5 October
