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magic vs BIG: AI prediction, Stake Ranked Episode 5
magic and BIG meet on 27 October — playoffs, upper bracket quarter-final, Stake Ranked Episode 5 2026, best of three. The AI models' bet: BIG to win at 1.79 — 6 of 16 models chose it. Below: the analysis, the odds, team form by series, rosters with player ratings and the map pool.
- Stake Ranked Episode 5 2026
- Playoffs, upper bracket quarter-final
- Best of three
- Stream
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: BIG to win
1.79The market prices this option at 56%
AI models' pick · 6 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 10 chose others
Match odds
Since the first snapshot magic have drifted: 2.13 → 2.33, BIG — 1.85 → 1.72. The money is going on BIG.
abbreviations
- 1, 2 — magic or BIG wins the series
- H1, H2 — map handicap: −1.5 means winning the series without dropping a map, +1.5 means taking at least one map
- O, U — total maps over or under: over 2.5 means the series goes to a third map
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for a BIG win. 5 more went for over 2.5 maps. The other 5 chose other bets: a magic win and a total-maps bet.
- 6 of 162our betodds 1.79DeepSeek
GrokDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxMistral
Sonar - 5 of 16O 2.5odds 2.00
GeminiKimiQwen
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultra - 3 of 161odds 2.22Claude
GLMNemotron Super - 2 of 16U 2.5odds 1.89ChatGPTXiaomi MiMo
Odds — the price at the moment the AI model answered.
Three wins from the last ten series apiece, but the two runs look nothing alike. BIG's defeats came against The MongolZ and Astralis (10th), and across the last 90 days their map record reads 26-22 with a round difference of +19. magic sit on 22-27 and -61 over the same period.
The map pools pull even further apart. magic ban Nuke first in 11 of 12 cases and are almost always in front on Ancient, yet Mirage reads 1-6 and Anubis 1-3. BIG take out exactly that Anubis, while holding Inferno at 6-3 and Cache at 8-6. The prices have drifted the same way over 30 hours, BIG shortening from 1.85 to 1.79, and that is where we are too: BIG to win at 1.79.
Where we could be wrong
The veto is still unknown, and magic's Ancient record is 9-9 — in September they won there 13-5 and took the series 2-0. There have been only two previous meetings in two years, one win each. BIG's pistol rounds stand at 38% against 50% for magic, which over a series that stretches to a third map hands their opponents extra rounds.
- 6 of 16 AI models back this bet: it is the most common answer, but more than half chose something else.
Form, rosters and maps
magic
23rd in the Valve ranking · 1489 points
roster · player rating over six months
- MaSvAl6.03
- AW5.85
- lattykk6.53
- sFade85.72
- tENZY6.15
recent series · 3 wins, 7 losses
- L0-2The MongolZ#491win Private Club 221.10
- W2-0Liquid#191win Private Club 220.10
- L0-2PARIVISION#361win Private Club 219.10
- L0-2GamerLegion#271win Private Club 128.09
- L1-2Ninjas in Pyjamas#181win Private Club 127.09
- W2-1GamerLegion#271win Private Club 126.09
- W2-1EYEBALLERS#431win Private Club 125.09
- L1-2MIBR#12StarLadder StarSeries Fall 202618.09
- L0-2Vitality#3StarLadder StarSeries Fall 202617.09
- L0-2Alliance#24FISSURE Playground 310.09
maps over 90 days
22–27, round difference −61; 8 of 20 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 51%, on the T side 43%, pistol rounds 50%
6 days since the last series, 4 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ancient | 9–9 | −22 | 8 | |
| Dust2 | 5–4 | +12 | 2 | 1 |
| Mirage | 1–6 | −30 | 1 | 2 |
| Inferno | 3–3 | −7 | 2 | |
| Cache | 3–2 | +1 | 5 | |
| Anubis | 1–3 | −15 | 4 | |
| Nuke | — | 11 |
Bans Nuke first in 11 of 12 series
BIG
25th in the Valve ranking · 1482 points
roster · player rating over six months
- tabseN5.88
- faveN5.88
- blameF6.64
- JDC6.02
- gr1ks6.33
recent series · 3 wins, 7 losses
- L1-2The MongolZ#491win Private Club 222.10
- L0-2PARIVISION#361win Private Club 221.10
- W2-0The MongolZ#491win Private Club 220.10
- W2-0PRIVATE#951win Private Club 219.10
- L1-2Astralis#10Stake Ranked Episode 403.10
- L1-2Luminosity#16Stake Ranked Episode 402.10
- W2-1fnatic#35Stake Ranked Episode 401.10
- L1-2G2#5FISSURE Playground 309.09
- L0-2BetBoom#11FISSURE Playground 308.09
- L0-2magic#23Intel Extreme Masters Beijing 2026: Global Qualifier03.09
maps over 90 days
26–22, round difference +19; 9 of 19 best-of-three series went to a third map
Rounds won on the CT side 49%, on the T side 53%, pistol rounds 38%
5 days since the last series, 7 maps this week
map pool over 90 days
| Map | W–L | Rounds ± | Picks | Bans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cache | 8–6 | +13 | 3 | |
| Mirage | 5–6 | −11 | 2 | |
| Inferno | 6–3 | +3 | 4 | 1 |
| Ancient | 3–4 | +4 | 1 | 1 |
| Dust2 | 2–2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Nuke | 2–1 | +10 | 5 | |
| Anubis | — | 6 |
head-to-head series, last two years
2 series: magic 1 win, BIG 1 win
- W2-0Ancient 13-5, Cache 19-17Intel Extreme Masters Beijing 2026: Global Qualifier03.09
- L0-2Mirage 7-13, Overpass 11-13HLC Cyprus Pro05.04
Valve ranking as of 5 October
