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data updated 27.10 08:07

FINISHED

Augsburg vs Union Berlin 1:1: result and odds

Augsburg vs Union Berlin finished 1:1; before kick-off the odds were 4.11 on a draw (having opened at 3.91), 1.80 on an Augsburg win and 4.06 on a Union Berlin win. The AI models' pick was Augsburg to win at 1.88, and it lost.

published · updated UTC

Augsburg
Union Berlin

AI models' pick: Augsburg to win

1.88

The market prices this option at 50%

AI models' pick · 10 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 6 chose others

Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results

lost−1.00 unitsclosing odds1.80CLV+4%
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
closing odds
The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
CLV
How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:111%odds 7.34 — this score came in

2:1 9%2:0 7%1:2 7%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 6 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 24.10 13:07

result11.80 — matches our bet−0.08X4.11+0.2024.06+0.39
total 3.5O2.16−0.19U1.71+0.11
both to scoreyes1.44−0.06no2.63+0.18
double chance1X1.25−0.04121.23−0.02X21.99+0.10
handicapH1 −12.31−0.20H2 +11.62+0.11

Over 6 days an Augsburg win shortened from 1.88 to 1.80 — money is coming in on the home side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Augsburg: 1.88 → 1.80 since we publishedView

Since we published, our bet (an Augsburg win) has shortened from 1.88 to 1.80: the market now rates it as more likely.

Augsburg1.88 → 1.80our betDraw3.91 → 4.11Union Berlin3.67 → 4.06
1.752.503.004.0018 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 OctWe published · 1.88Draw 4.11Union Berlin 4.06Augsburg 1.80

Price changes

Price changes in the 1X2 market
WhenAugsburg · our betDrawUnion Berlin
1.80−0.034.11+0.034.06+0.11
1.834.08+0.043.95+0.01
1.83−0.024.04+0.043.94+0.06
1.854.00+0.023.88+0.01
1.853.98−0.033.87+0.01
1.854.01+0.063.86+0.07
1.853.95−0.013.79−0.03
1.85+0.013.96−0.043.82−0.04
1.84−0.044.00+0.093.86+0.19
We published an Augsburg win at 1.88
1.88opened3.91opened3.67opened
85 snapshots · the prices changed 9 times

How the match went

half-time 0:0

match report · 24.10 16:16

Two red cards shaped a 1-1 draw in Augsburg. Felix Uduokhai was sent off for Union Berlin on 19 minutes, and it stayed 0-0 at half-time. Juma Bah saw red for Augsburg on 63, making it ten against ten, and Han-Noah Massengo then put Augsburg 1-0 up on 71 from a Fabian Rieder assist. Janik Haberer equalised for Union Berlin on 74. Augsburg had 25 shots to six and 69% of the ball. The xG was 1.91 to 1.24, yet Union Berlin scored from their only shot on target and made four saves. Our bet on Augsburg to win, backed at 1.88, went down. Before kick-off the home win was 1.80 and the draw 4.11, while both teams to score, which landed, was on offer at 1.44.

  1. 12'Augsburgon Jeffrey Gouweleeuw, off Calvin Marc Brackelmann
  2. 19'Union BerlinFelix Uduokhai RC
  3. 25'Union Berlinon Leopold Querfeld, off Livan Burcu
  4. 31'Union BerlinJanik Haberer YC
  5. 36'Union BerlinLeopold Querfeld YC
  6. 45'Union Berlinon Mekhi Gray, off Tim Skarke
  7. 63'AugsburgJuma Bah RC
  8. 71'AugsburgHan-Noah Massengo (Fabian Rieder)1:0
  9. 72'Augsburgon Robin Fellhauer, off Marius Wolf
  10. 72'Augsburgon Mert Kömür, off Arijon Ibrahimovic
  11. 74'Union BerlinJanik Haberer1:1
  12. 76'Union Berlinon Oliver Burke, off Woo-Yeong Jeong
  13. 77'Union BerlinMekhi Gray YC
  14. 89'Augsburgon Uchenna Ogundu, off Han-Noah Massengo
  15. 89'Augsburgon Rodrigo Ribeiro, off Anton Kade
  16. 90+5'Union Berlinon Aljoscha Kemlein, off Michel Aebischer
Match stats: Augsburg vs Union Berlin
AugsburgstatUnion Berlin
1.91expected goals (xG)1.24
25shots6
5on target1
69%possession31%
5corners1
10fouls9
0saves4
0yellow cards3
1red cards1
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Augsburg

formation 3-4-2-1 · manager M. Baum

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1F. Dahmen6.6
  • 2C. Brackelmann6.2
  • 5C. Matsima6.7
  • 35Abdulay Bah6.0
  • 16Hennes Behrens6.4
  • 32F. Rieder7.7
  • 4H. Massengo — highest feed rating in the match8.0
  • 27M. Wolf7.2
  • 21A. Ibrahimović6.4
  • 30A. Kade6.3
  • 11M. Gregoritsch6.7
substitutes
  • 7Seol Young-Woo
  • 37T. Schnitzer
  • 9Rodrigo Ribeiroon 89'6.5
  • 39U. Ogunduon 89'6.6
  • 22N. Labrović
  • 10M. Kömüron 72'6.1
  • 14Y. Keitel
  • 6J. Gouweleeuwon 12'6.9
  • 19R. Fellhaueron 72'6.8
Union Berlin

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager M. Lustrinelli

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1F. Rønnow6.8
  • 15T. Rothe6.0
  • 2F. Uduokhai5.4
  • 4Z. Van Den Bosch6.0
  • 19J. Haberer6.2
  • 8R. Khedira6.1
  • 13A. Schäfer6.3
  • 9Livan Burcu6.2
  • 20M. Aebischer6.4
  • 11Jeong Woo-Yeong6.5
  • 21T. Skarke6.6
substitutes
  • 28C. Trimmel
  • 31M. Raab
  • 14L. Querfeldon 25'6.6
  • 27M. Ljubičić
  • 29E. Latte Lath
  • 17D. Köhn
  • 6A. Kemleinon 90+5'
  • 32M. Grayon 45'6.3
  • 7O. Burkeon 76'6.7

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on an Augsburg win — the bet lost. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: Augsburg −1. 6 more bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet lost.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:55 UTC

Union Berlin have been dreadful on the road: no goals in two away matches and an average of 5.5 conceded per game. Six rounds in, they sit 17th with 5 points. Augsburg, by contrast, are scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.3 at home, and their three home games have all gone unbeaten — one win and two draws. The odds have not moved for nearly a day, handing the hosts half the chances against 26% for an away win, which looks fair enough for a side still waiting for a first away goal.

Where we could be wrong

The soft spot is Augsburg's own box: 12 conceded in five league games with just 40.2% possession, so even a visiting side this blunt can hang around and get a sight of goal. The previous meetings don't favour the hosts either — Union won 4-0 in May 2026, and in January 2026 Augsburg could only draw 1-1 with them at home. Even so, we're backing Augsburg to win at 1.88.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first · as of 24.10
Augsburg
Recent matches: Augsburg
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17.10ElversbergA3:4xG 3.5–3.7L
10.10Bayern MunichH2:2xG 2.4–5.0D
02.10Hertha BSCclub friendlyH2:2D
19.09Werder BremenA2:3xG 1.1–2.8L
12.09Bayer LeverkusenH2:2xG 1.1–2.6D
06.09Eintracht FrankfurtA4:1xG 1.1–2.2W
Union Berlin
Recent matches: Union Berlin
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17.10Borussia DortmundH0:0xG 0.9–1.4D
10.10ElversbergH1:0xG 1.1–0.2W
26.09HNK Rijekaclub friendlyA1:0W
18.09Bayern MunichA0:7xG 0.3–3.7L
11.09SchalkeH1:3xG 1.9–2.5L
05.09Bayer LeverkusenA0:4xG 0.4–3.1L

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstAugsburgUnion BerlinBundesliga
goals2.7 / 20.8 / 2.81.8
xG2.2 / 31.1 / 21.8
shots16.2 / 2212.8 / 15.315.6
shots on target7 / 7.84.3 / 75.5
corners6 / 6.84 / 5.85.4
fouls9.8 / 1011.7 / 10.811.5
yellow cards1.8 / 1.32.5 / 21.7
matches over 2.5100%67%
both scored83%33%
clean sheets17%33%
failed to score0%50%
home / away
goals2.3 / 1.30 / 5.5
average total3.75.5
matches over 2.5100%100%
both scored67%0%
  • Augsburg score more than the league average: 2.7 vs 1.8
  • Union Berlin score less than the league average: 0.8 vs 1.8
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Augsburg, away games only for Union Berlin

Head to head

last 10

3–3–4Augsburg wins · draws · Union Berlin wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Union Berlin vs Augsburg4:016.05.26
Augsburg vs Union Berlin1:115.01.26
Augsburg vs Union Berlin1:217.05.25
Union Berlin vs Augsburg0:215.01.25
Augsburg vs Union Berlin2:012.04.24
Union Berlin vs Augsburg1:125.11.23
Augsburg vs Union Berlin1:006.05.23
Augsburg vs Union Berlin0:107.01.23club friendly
Union Berlin vs Augsburg1:007.01.23club friendly
Union Berlin vs Augsburg2:209.11.22
  • both scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 10

League table

League standings: Bundesliga
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
9Hamburg63-0-36–159LLWWW
10Augsburg62-2-216–128WDLDL
11Eintracht Frankfurt62-2-210–168LWDLW
16Paderborn61-2-35–95LLWLD
17Union Berlin61-2-35–175LLLWD
18Borussia Mönchengladbach60-0-68–200LLLLL

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10

Goals by minute

league season
Augsburg
  • 0-1513
  • 16-3022
  • 31-4500
  • 46-6052
  • 61-7521
  • 76-9055
Union Berlin
  • 0-1513
  • 16-3003
  • 31-4502
  • 46-6003
  • 61-7504
  • 76-9042

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

All Bundesliga results
2:3Mainz–Werder BremenOur pick:BTTS1.53prediction won11 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.75X 4.132 4.350:0Köln–SchalkeOur pick:12.02prediction lost6 of 15 AI models picked this bet1 2.09X 3.732 3.334:0Leipzig–ElversbergOur pick:H1 (−1.5)1.91prediction won11 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.43X 5.262 6.31