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data updated 27.10 08:07

FINISHED

Mainz vs Werder Bremen 2:3: result and odds

Mainz vs Werder Bremen finished 2:3 in an upset; before kick-off the odds were 4.35 on a Werder Bremen win (having opened at 4.51), 1.75 on a Mainz win and 4.13 on a draw. The AI models' pick was both teams to score at 1.53, and it won.

published · updated UTC

Mainz
Werder Bremen

AI models' pick: Both teams to score

1.53

The market prices this option at 61%

AI models' pick · 11 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 5 chose others

Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results

won+0.53 unitsclosing odds1.50CLV+2%
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
closing odds
The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
CLV
How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:111%odds 7.80

2:1 10%2:0 8%1:0 7%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 6 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 24.10 13:07

result11.75+0.07X4.13−0.0424.35−0.16
total 3.5O2.27−0.06U1.65+0.04
both to scoreyes1.50 — matches our bet−0.03no2.46+0.07
double chance1X1.22+0.01121.23+0.01X22.06−0.09
handicapH1 −12.23+0.12H2 +11.65−0.06

Over 6 days a Werder Bremen win shortened from 4.51 to 4.35 — money is coming in on the away side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.53 → 1.50 since we publishedView

Since we published, our bet (both teams score) has shortened from 1.53 to 1.50: the market now rates it as more likely.

Yes1.53 → 1.50our betNo2.39 → 2.46
1.601.802.002.202.4018 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 OctWe published · 1.53No 2.46Yes 1.50

Price changes

Price changes in the Both to score market
WhenYes · our betNo
1.50−0.012.46+0.03
1.512.43−0.01
1.512.44+0.01
1.51−0.012.43+0.02
1.522.41+0.01
1.52−0.012.40+0.01
We published both teams score at 1.53
1.53opened2.39opened
85 snapshots · the prices changed 6 times

How the match went

half-time 1:2

match report · 25.10 10:00

Two Niclas Füllkrug penalties, on 7 and 25 minutes, put Werder Bremen 2-0 up away to Mainz, and they went on to win 3-2. Anthony Caci pulled one back on 33 minutes, so it was 1-2 at half-time. Ludovit Reis made it 3-1 on 61 minutes, Lee Jae-Sung replied on 63, and Mainz found no third. The xG favoured the visitors, 2.58 to 1.73. Mainz had more of the ball, 53% to 47%, and one more shot, yet both sides put eight on target. The market had Mainz as favourites, rated 1.75 to win, while Werder Bremen went off at 4.35. Our both-teams-to-score bet, backed at 1.53, landed. Five goals took over 3.5, which was priced at 2.27.

  1. 7'Werder BremenNiclas Füllkrug penalty0:1
  2. 25'Werder BremenNiclas Füllkrug penalty0:2
  3. 33'MainzAnthony Caci (Sheraldo Becker)1:2
  4. 38'Werder BremenLudovit Reis YC
  5. 45'Werder Bremenon Mick Schmetgens, off Olivier Deman
  6. 59'Werder Bremenon Oskar Wójcik, off Mitchell Weiser
  7. 61'Werder BremenLudovit Reis (Marco Grüll)1:3
  8. 63'MainzLee Jae-Sung (Anthony Caci)2:3
  9. 69'MainzPhillipp Mwene YC
  10. 72'Werder Bremenon Eren Dinkci, off Iván San José Cantalejo
  11. 75'Mainzon Ransford Königsdörffer, off Lee Jae-Sung
  12. 75'Mainzon Silvan Widmer, off Anthony Caci
  13. 81'Werder Bremenon Cédric Itten, off Niclas Füllkrug
  14. 85'Mainzon Benedict Hollerbach, off Sheraldo Becker
  15. 85'Mainzon Paul Nebel, off Danny da Costa
  16. 90+1'Mainzon Eric Martel, off Kaishu Sano
  17. 90+4'MainzAlexander Schwolow YC
Match stats: Mainz vs Werder Bremen
MainzstatWerder Bremen
1.73expected goals (xG)2.58
18shots17
8on target8
53%possession47%
6corners7
7fouls5
6saves6
2yellow cards1
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Mainz

formation 3-5-2 · manager U. Fischer

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1A. Schwolow6.8
  • 48K. Potulski6.9
  • 4S. Posch6.5
  • 21D. da Costa6.7
  • 2P. Mwene5.4
  • 10N. Amiri6.2
  • 6K. Sano6.8
  • 7Lee Jae-Sung7.4
  • 19A. Caci — highest feed rating in the match8.6
  • 9P. Tietz6.3
  • 23S. Becker7.4
substitutes
  • 3F. Gruber
  • 17B. Hollerbachon 85'6.2
  • 40M. Kinzig
  • 11R. Königsdörfferon 75'6.4
  • 15L. Maloney
  • 5E. Martelon 90+1'
  • 47R. Nakuzola
  • 8P. Nebelon 85'5.9
  • 30S. Widmeron 75'6.0
Werder Bremen

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager D. Thioune

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1K. Hein7.6
  • 2O. Deman5.8
  • 32M. Friedl6.5
  • 5A. Pieper6.8
  • 13Arthur7.1
  • 44Y. Regeer6.6
  • 15L. Reis8.2
  • 17M. Grüll6.6
  • 20Chuky San José6.3
  • 8M. Weiser6.9
  • 10N. Füllkrug7.3
substitutes
  • 18E. Dinkçion 72'6.7
  • 38P. Erevbenagie
  • 26C. Ittenon 81'6.7
  • 14S. Lynen
  • 19K. Quetant
  • 30A. Schlager
  • 33Mick Schmetgenson 45'6.5
  • 23Dariusz Stalmach
  • 3O. Wójcikon 59'6.2

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on both teams to score — the bet won. 3 more bet on a Mainz win — the bet lost. The other 2 bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet won.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:55 UTC

Goals at both ends are the norm when these two meet: a year ago it finished 1-1, and before that came 1-2 in September 2024 and 4-0 in September 2023. Mainz are averaging 1.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded at home, with both teams finding the net in two of three games. Werder Bremen's away record is even clearer — in all three on the road this season they scored and so did the opposition, with nobody keeping a clean sheet. Both attacks are ticking over, 14 goals for Mainz in five rounds and 11 for Werder Bremen, and the bookmakers rate this outcome at 61%.

Where we could be wrong

The doubt is that in March 2026 Werder Bremen lost 0-2 at home without scoring, and one of Mainz's home games also passed without a goal of their own. Should the hosts go ahead early, that may be enough for Werder Bremen to sit in and never breach the other goal. Even so, our pick is both teams to score at odds of 1.53.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first · as of 24.10
Mainz
Recent matches: Mainz
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17.10SchalkeA1:0xG 1.5–0.3W
10.10Bayer LeverkusenH3:4xG 2.9–1.7L
03.10Waldhof Mannheimclub friendlyA3:0W
19.09Borussia MönchengladbachA4:3xG 2.8–3.2W
12.09Eintracht FrankfurtH1:3xG 2.1–2.0L
06.09HamburgA5:0W
Werder Bremen
Recent matches: Werder Bremen
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17.10PaderbornH2:2xG 2.9–1.0D
09.10Borussia DortmundA2:2xG 1.1–2.4D
02.10Twenteclub friendlyA0:7L
19.09AugsburgH3:2xG 2.8–1.1W
12.09KölnA1:1D
05.09LeipzigH3:1xG 0.9–1.5W

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstMainzWerder BremenBundesliga
goals2.3 / 1.72 / 21.8
xG2.3 / 1.41.6 / 1.61.8
shots17.7 / 12.514 / 15.315.6
shots on target6 / 3.86.8 / 5.55.5
corners4.8 / 43.7 / 5.85.4
fouls13.8 / 11.212 / 11.211.5
yellow cards2.3 / 21.2 / 1.31.7
matches over 2.567%83%
both scored50%100%
clean sheets50%0%
failed to score17%0%
home / away
goals1.3 / 2.31.3 / 2.3
average total3.73.7
matches over 2.567%67%
both scored67%100%
  • Mainz score more than the league average: 2.3 vs 1.8
  • Werder Bremen score more than the league average: 2 vs 1.8
  • Werder Bremen unbeaten in the last 5 league games
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Mainz, away games only for Werder Bremen

Head to head

last 10

3–2–5Mainz wins · draws · Werder Bremen wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Werder Bremen vs Mainz0:215.03.26
Mainz vs Werder Bremen1:101.11.25
Werder Bremen vs Mainz1:031.01.25
Mainz vs Werder Bremen1:215.09.24
Mainz vs Werder Bremen0:103.02.24
Werder Bremen vs Mainz4:002.09.23
Mainz vs Werder Bremen2:208.04.23
Werder Bremen vs Mainz0:215.10.22
Werder Bremen vs Mainz0:121.04.21
Mainz vs Werder Bremen0:119.12.20
  • both scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 10

League table

League standings: Bundesliga
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
4Bayer Leverkusen64-1-116–913WDWWW
5Mainz63-1-214–1010WLWLW
6Elversberg63-1-212–1110WLDLW
7Leipzig63-0-316–119LWLWL
8Werder Bremen62-3-112–129WDWDD
9Hamburg63-0-36–159LLWWW

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10

Goals by minute

league season
Mainz
  • 0-1504
  • 16-3030
  • 31-4541
  • 46-6013
  • 61-7501
  • 76-9061
Werder Bremen
  • 0-1511
  • 16-3004
  • 31-4501
  • 46-6013
  • 61-7540
  • 76-9063

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

All Bundesliga results
0:0Köln–SchalkeOur pick:12.02prediction lost6 of 15 AI models picked this bet1 2.09X 3.732 3.334:0Leipzig–ElversbergOur pick:H1 (−1.5)1.91prediction won11 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.43X 5.262 6.311:0Paderborn–HamburgOur pick:O 2.51.58prediction lost7 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 2.30X 3.702 2.92