FINISHED
Paderborn vs Hamburg 1:0: result and odds
Paderborn vs Hamburg finished 1:0; before kick-off the odds were 2.30 on a Paderborn win (having opened at 2.32), 2.92 on a Hamburg win and 3.70 on a draw. The AI models' pick was over 2.5 goals at 1.58, and it lost.
- Referee: Martin Petersen
- Bundesliga, matchday 7 of 34
- +11°, cloudy, wind 18 km/h
- Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Over 2.5 goals
1.58The market prices this option at 60%
AI models' pick · 7 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 9 chose others
Under half back the betOur football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
2:1 9%1:2 8%2:2 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 6 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 6 days a Hamburg win drifted from 2.80 to 2.92 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Over 2.5: 1.58 → 1.58 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Over 2.5 1.58 → 1.58, Under 2.5 2.36 → 2.37.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 · our bet | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.58 | 2.37−0.01 | |
| 1.58+0.01 | 2.38−0.01 | |
| 1.57 | 2.39+0.01 | |
| 1.57−0.02 | 2.38+0.03 | |
| 1.59+0.01 | 2.35−0.01 | |
| We published over 2.5 goals at 1.58 | ||
| 1.58opened | 2.36opened | |
How the match went
Rayan Philippe scored on 88 minutes to give Paderborn a 1-0 win after a goalless first half. Felix Götze, on from 62 minutes, set up the goal; Philippe himself had come on at 70. The numbers favoured the home side: 1.21 xG to 0.49, and 16 shots to eight. Six were on target to Hamburg's one, and Paderborn had 62% of the ball. Hamburg made five saves, Paderborn one. Our over 2.5 goals bet, priced 1.58, went down with a single goal in the match. Paderborn were the favourites before kick-off, 2.30 to win, with the draw 3.70 and Hamburg 2.92. The exact score of 1-0 was on offer at 10.46, while both teams to score finished no, a price of 2.52.
- 13'on Otto Emerson Stange, off Fábio Vieira
- 45'on Terem Moffi, off Yussuf Poulsen
- 45'on Tom Baack, off Gabriel Vidović
- 53'Shafiq Nandja YC
- 58'Jano ter Horst YC
- 62'on Felix Götze, off Jano ter Horst
- 62'on Marvin Pieringer, off Steffen Tigges
- 70'on Rayan Philippe, off Laurin Ulrich
- 71'on Albert Sambi Lokonga, off Miro Muheim
- 71'on Albert Grönbaek, off Bilal Nadir
- 79'on Sven Michel, off Stefano Marino
- 87'Albert Sambi Lokonga YC
- 88'Rayan Philippe (Felix Götze)1:0
- 89'Merlin Polzin YC
- 89'on Alexander Rossing Lelesiit, off Otto Emerson Stange
| Paderborn | stat | Hamburg |
|---|---|---|
| 1.21 | expected goals (xG) | 0.49 |
| 16 | shots | 8 |
| 6 | on target | 1 |
| 62% | possession | 38% |
| 6 | corners | 3 |
| 12 | fouls | 15 |
| 1 | saves | 5 |
| 1 | yellow cards | 2 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Paderborn- 15N. Noll6.9
- 22M. Hansen7.0
- 25T. Scheller — highest feed rating in the match7.9
- 21J. ter Horst6.5
- 23R. Obermair7.2
- 40G. Vidović6.6
- 5S. Castañeda6.6
- 28L. Ulrich6.3
- 17L. Curda6.3
- 27S. Tigges6.5
- 30S. Marino6.2
- 6T. Baackon 45'6.9
- 20F. Götzeon 62'7.3
- 11S. Michelon 79'6.8
- 2Ruben Müller
- 9R. Philippeon 70'7.6
- 18M. Pieringeron 62'6.7
- 1M. Schubert
- 3Jonah Benedict Sticker
- 38D. Zeitler
Hamburg- 1Daniel Heuer Fernandes7.0
- 17W. Omari6.7
- 33S. Bornauw6.9
- 43S. Nandja5.5
- 3D. Møller Wolfe6.3
- 28M. Muheim6.2
- 4B. Nadir6.6
- 5M. Adeline6.3
- 7Z. El Ouahdi5.8
- 20Fábio Vieira6.4
- 15Y. Poulsen6.7
- 38Alexander Røssing-Lelesiiton 89'5.9
- 19Otto Emerson Stangeon 13'6.5
- 12S. Tangvik
- 9T. Moffion 45'6.1
- 6A. Sambi Lokongaon 71'6.0
- 37L. Lemke
- 11A. Grønbækon 71'6.5
- 48J. Bissi Mouelle
- 22Kofi Jeremy Amoako
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet lost. 2 more each on Paderborn draw no bet (won), on at least one side failing to score (won) and on a Hamburg win (lost). The other 3 chose a bet each: both teams to score, double chance and a Paderborn win.
- 7 of 16O 2.5our betodds 1.58ChatGPTClaude
GrokKimiQwen
Sonar
Dots3-Notelost - 2 of 16DNB 1odds 1.76DeepSeek
Geminiwon - 2 of 16BTTS noodds 2.50
GLMMiniMaxwon - 2 of 162odds 2.80Xiaomi MiMoNemotron Superlost
- 1 of 16BTTSodds 1.49Mistrallost
- 1 of 16X2odds 1.61Nemotron Ultralost
- 1 of 161odds 2.32DeepSeek Flashwon
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:55 UTC
Paderborn have been keeping things tight at home: their home games average 2.3 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in only one of every three. Hamburg, though, bring shootouts with them on the road — three goals conceded per away trip, an average of 4 goals in their away games, and three or more goals in two cases out of three. Both defences are leaking this season. In five Bundesliga matches Paderborn have scored five and conceded nine, Hamburg six and 13, and the hosts have not kept a clean sheet in a single home game, nor have Hamburg on their travels. The market rates three goals or more at 60%.
Where we could be wrong
The previous meetings argue the other way. Paderborn won 2-0 in March 2025 and won 1-0 in May 2024, with both games staying within two goals. The home attack is modest, worth around one expected goal per match from 3.6 shots on target, and if Hamburg start carefully the score could stay low for a long spell. Even so, we're backing over 2.5 goals at 1.58.
- 7 of 16 AI models back this bet: it is the most common answer, but more than half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Paderborn| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Werder Bremen | A | 2:2xG 1.0–2.9 | D |
| 10.10 | Stuttgart | H | 0:2xG 2.0–2.5 | L |
| 30.09 | DC Unitedclub friendly | A | 1:0 | W |
| 20.09 | Hoffenheim | H | 3:1xG 0.7–1.5 | W |
| 12.09 | Borussia Dortmund | A | 0:3xG 0.5–1.8 | L |
| 05.09 | Freiburg | H | 0:1xG 0.8–1.2 | L |
Hamburg| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Stuttgart | H | 1:0xG 1.5–1.7 | W |
| 10.10 | Hoffenheim | A | 3:2xG 1.3–0.9 | W |
| 04.10 | Copenhagenclub friendly | H | 2:0 | W |
| 19.09 | Köln | H | 2:1 | W |
| 13.09 | Leipzig | A | 0:5xG 1.1–2.4 | L |
| 06.09 | Mainz | H | 0:5 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Bundesliga |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 0.8 / 1.5 | 1 / 2.5 | 1.8 |
| xG | 1 / 1.9 | 1.1 / 1.9 | 1.8 |
| shots | 13.7 / 18.3 | 11.2 / 19.2 | 15.6 |
| shots on target | 3 / 6.3 | 3.7 / 5.7 | 5.5 |
| corners | 4.3 / 6.2 | 3.8 / 6 | 5.4 |
| fouls | 10.5 / 10.8 | 14.3 / 12.8 | 11.5 |
| yellow cards | 1.3 / 1.2 | 1.3 / 1.7 | 1.7 |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| both scored | 33% | 33% | |
| clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| failed to score | 67% | 50% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1 / 1.3 | 1 / 3 | |
| average total | 2.3 | 4 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| both scored | 33% | 33% | |
- Paderborn score less than the league average: 0.8 vs 1.8
- Hamburg score less than the league average: 1 vs 1.8
- Hamburg: 3 league wins in a row
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Paderborn, away games only for Hamburg
Head to head
4–2–4Paderborn wins · draws · Hamburg wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn vs Hamburg | 2:0 | 02.03.25 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Hamburg vs Paderborn | 2:2 | 28.09.24 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Paderborn vs Hamburg | 1:0 | 10.05.24 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Hamburg vs Paderborn | 1:2 | 09.12.23 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Hamburg vs Paderborn | 2:2 | 05.05.23 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Paderborn vs Hamburg | 2:3 | 30.10.22 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Hamburg vs Paderborn | 1:2 | 02.04.22 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Paderborn vs Hamburg | 1:2 | 22.10.21 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Hamburg vs Paderborn | 3:1 | 30.01.21 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Paderborn vs Hamburg | 3:4 | 28.09.20 | 2. Bundesliga |
- both scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 8 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 2-3-1 | 12–12 | 9 | WDWDD |
| 9 | Hamburg | 6 | 3-0-3 | 6–15 | 9 | LLWWW |
| 10 | Augsburg | 6 | 2-2-2 | 16–12 | 8 | WDLDL |
| 15 | Schalke | 6 | 1-2-3 | 4–7 | 5 | DWDLL |
| 16 | Paderborn | 6 | 1-2-3 | 5–9 | 5 | LLWLD |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 6 | 1-2-3 | 5–17 | 5 | LLLWD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10
Goals by minute
- 0-1501
- 16-3032
- 31-4510
- 46-6002
- 61-7511
- 76-9003
- 0-1511
- 16-3003
- 31-4522
- 46-6012
- 61-7502
- 76-9034
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
