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data updated 27.10 08:07

FINISHED

Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen 3:0: result and odds

Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen finished 3:0 in an upset; before kick-off the odds were 3.21 on a Hoffenheim win (having opened at 2.67), 2.02 on a Bayer Leverkusen win and 4.12 on a draw. The AI models' pick was over 3.5 goals at 1.96, and it lost.

published · updated UTC

Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen

AI models' pick: Over 3.5 goals

1.96

The market prices this option at 49%

AI models' pick · 6 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 4 more in the same direction

Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results

lost−1.00 unitsclosing odds1.78CLV+10%
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
closing odds
The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
CLV
How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:110%odds 8.56

1:2 8%2:1 8%2:2 7%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 25.10 14:12

result13.21+0.54X4.12+0.1422.02−0.27
total 3.5O1.78 — matches our bet−0.18U2.05+0.19
both to scoreyes1.29−0.04no3.37+0.26
double chance1X1.78+0.17121.23−0.01X21.35−0.11
handicapH1 +11.46+0.16H2 −12.70−0.62

Over 7 days a Hoffenheim win drifted from 2.67 to 3.21 — fewer bets on the home side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Over 3.5: 1.96 → 1.78 since we publishedView

Since we published, our bet (over 3.5 goals) has shortened from 1.96 to 1.78: the market now rates it as more likely. Over 3.5 overtook Under 3.5 on 25 Oct: 1.96 → 1.78, against 1.86 → 2.05.

Over 3.51.96 → 1.78our betUnder 3.51.86 → 2.05
1.801.902.0018 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 Oct25 OctWe published · 1.96Over 3.5 overtook Under 3.5Under 3.5 2.05Over 3.5 1.78

Price changes

Price changes in the Total 3.5 market
WhenOver 3.5 · our betUnder 3.5
1.78−0.032.05+0.02
1.81−0.072.03+0.09
1.88−0.101.94+0.09
1.98+0.041.85−0.03
1.941.88−0.01
1.941.89+0.01
1.941.88−0.01
1.94+0.011.89
1.93−0.011.89
1.941.89+0.01
1.94−0.021.88+0.02
1.96−0.011.86
1.97+0.011.86
We published over 3.5 goals at 1.96
1.96opened1.86opened
102 snapshots · the prices changed 13 times

How the match went

half-time 0:0

match report · 25.10 16:49

Hoffenheim beat Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 after a goalless first half. VAR confirmed a penalty on 77 minutes, and Andrej Kramarić, a substitute on 65, scored it on 79. Alexander Prass made it 2-0 on 89 from a Kramarić assist, then was sent off on 90+1. Max Moerstedt added a third on 90+5. Leverkusen had more of the ball, 58% against 42%, but managed one shot on target to Hoffenheim's six. Hoffenheim had 20 shots to nine, and their xG was 3.34 against 0.68. Before kick-off Hoffenheim were the outsiders, 3.21 to win, with Leverkusen on offer at 2.02. Three goals meant under 3.5, so our over 3.5 bet at 1.96 went down.

  1. 40'Bayer LeverkusenEqui Fernández YC
  2. 41'Bayer Leverkusenon Malik Tillman, off Moussa Diaby
  3. 45'HoffenheimAlexander Prass YC
  4. 58'Bayer LeverkusenPatrik Schick YC
  5. 64'Bayer Leverkusenon Robert Andrich, off Equi Fernández
  6. 64'Bayer Leverkusenon Afonso Moreira, off Nathan Tella
  7. 64'Bayer Leverkusenon Loïc Badé, off Jarell Quansah
  8. 65'Hoffenheimon Andrej Kramarić, off Adam Hložek
  9. 67'HoffenheimLeon Avdullahu YC
  10. 72'Hoffenheimon Bambasé Conté, off Wouter Burger
  11. 75'Bayer LeverkusenFacundo Medina YC
  12. 77'Hoffenheimpenalty confirmed (VAR) · Fisnik Asllani
  13. 79'HoffenheimAndrej Kramarić penalty1:0
  14. 82'HoffenheimAdam Daghim YC
  15. 84'Hoffenheimon Robin Hranáč, off Fisnik Asllani
  16. 84'Hoffenheimon Max Moerstedt, off Adam Daghim
  17. 84'Bayer Leverkusenon Jonas Hofmann, off Facundo Medina
  18. 89'HoffenheimAlexander Prass (Andrej Kramarić)2:0
  19. 90'Bayer LeverkusenCarles Martínez Novell YC
  20. 90+1'HoffenheimAlexander Prass RC
  21. 90+3'Bayer LeverkusenLoïc Badé YC
  22. 90+5'HoffenheimMax Moerstedt3:0
Match stats: Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
HoffenheimstatBayer Leverkusen
3.34expected goals (xG)0.68
20shots9
6on target1
42%possession58%
5corners3
14fouls6
1saves3
2yellow cards4
1red cards0
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Hoffenheim

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager C. Ilzer

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1O. Baumann6.4
  • 39M. Rots6.6
  • 28K. Machida6.8
  • 5O. Kabak7.2
  • 34V. Coufal7.0
  • 18W. Burger6.5
  • 7L. Avdullahu6.6
  • 14A. Daghim6.3
  • 10A. Hložek6.2
  • 22A. Prass6.9
  • 11F. Asllani6.5
substitutes
  • 29Natnael Abraha
  • 13Bernardo
  • 20B. Contéon 72'6.7
  • 15V. Gendrey
  • 2R. Hranáčon 84'6.7
  • 27A. Kramarić — highest feed rating in the matchon 65'7.7
  • 32Cajetan Benjamin Lenz
  • 9Max Moerstedton 84'7.4
  • 37L. Philipp
Bayer Leverkusen

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager Carles Martínez

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1M. Flekken6.1
  • 3Miguel Gutiérrez6.0
  • 2F. Medina6.3
  • 12E. Tapsoba6.5
  • 4J. Quansah5.7
  • 6E. Fernández5.7
  • 24Aleix García7.2
  • 23N. Tella6.0
  • 30I. Maza6.2
  • 19M. Diaby5.8
  • 14P. Schick6.2
substitutes
  • 10M. Tillmanon 41'6.4
  • 15T. Oermann
  • 9Afonso Moreiraon 64'6.6
  • 17Lucas Vázquez
  • 7J. Hofmannon 84'5.6
  • 22V. Boniface
  • 28J. Blaswich
  • 5L. Badéon 64'5.8
  • 8R. Andrichon 64'5.9

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on over 3.5 goals — the bet lost. 4 more chose close bets in the same direction: over 2.5 goals. 4 more bet on both teams to score — the bet lost. The other 2 chose a bet each: a Bayer Leverkusen handicap and a Bayer Leverkusen win.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:55 UTC

Three of the last six meetings have produced at least four goals, with Bayer Leverkusen hitting Hoffenheim for three on one occasion and four on another. All three of Hoffenheim's home games this season have gone over 2.5 goals, an average of 4.3 per match, and neither side has failed to score in any of them. Bayer Leverkusen have been even looser on the road: 2.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded, around 5.3 per game. Hoffenheim have nine goals and 13 conceded from six competitive outings, while Leverkusen have 16 scored with an xG of 2.57 per match. On those numbers the fourth goal needed for over 3.5 goals hardly looks a stretch, and our pick is over 3.5 goals at 1.96.

Where we could be wrong

The counter-argument is there. Hoffenheim won 1-0 back in January 2026, a reminder that the visitors can be shut down, and Leverkusen have already kept two clean sheets this season. Light rain in Sinsheim will not help the tempo either.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first · as of 25.10
Hoffenheim
Recent matches: Hoffenheim
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
22.10LyonEuropa LeagueH3:0W
18.10Borussia MönchengladbachA2:1xG 1.8–0.4W
15.10BeşiktaşEuropa LeagueH2:3xG 1.2–3.4L
10.10HamburgH2:3xG 0.9–1.3L
20.09PaderbornA1:3xG 1.5–0.7L
17.09OFI CreteEuropa LeagueA0:2L
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent matches: Bayer Leverkusen
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
22.10OFI CreteEuropa LeagueA2:0W
18.10FreiburgH2:1xG 1.7–1.1W
15.10Lech PoznańEuropa LeagueA4:0xG 5.2–0.6W
10.10MainzA4:3xG 1.7–2.9W
20.09LeipzigH2:0xG 2.3–1.0W
16.09CeljeEuropa LeagueH2:0xG 1.9–0.9W

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstHoffenheimBayer LeverkusenBundesliga
goals1.8 / 2.32.7 / 1.51.8
xG1.8 / 1.42.2 / 1.31.8
shots17.8 / 13.719.7 / 11.715.6
shots on target5.3 / 4.56.2 / 3.55.5
corners6.7 / 4.77.3 / 3.35.4
fouls13.3 / 10.212.3 / 1011.5
yellow cards1.8 / 0.81.3 / 2.21.7
matches over 2.5100%83%
both scored100%67%
clean sheets0%33%
failed to score0%0%
home / away
goals2 / 2.32.7 / 2.7
average total4.35.3
matches over 2.5100%100%
both scored100%100%
  • Hoffenheim shoot more often than the league average: 17.8 shots vs 15.6
  • Bayer Leverkusen score more than the league average: 2.7 vs 1.8
  • Bayer Leverkusen: 3 league wins in a row
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Hoffenheim, away games only for Bayer Leverkusen

Head to head

last 10

3–1–6Hoffenheim wins · draws · Bayer Leverkusen wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen1:017.01.26
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hoffenheim1:223.08.25
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hoffenheim3:102.02.25
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen1:414.09.24
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hoffenheim2:130.03.24
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen2:304.11.23
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen1:311.02.23
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hoffenheim0:320.08.22
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen2:407.05.22
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hoffenheim2:215.12.21
  • both scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 9 of 10

League table

League standings: Bundesliga
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
3Freiburg64-1-115–613WWDWL
4Bayer Leverkusen64-1-116–913WDWWW
5Mainz63-1-214–1010WLWLW
13Stuttgart62-0-48–106WLLWL
14Hoffenheim62-0-411–146LWLLW
15Schalke61-2-34–75DWDLL

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10

Goals by minute

league season
Hoffenheim
  • 0-1511
  • 16-3011
  • 31-4512
  • 46-6032
  • 61-7524
  • 76-9013
Bayer Leverkusen
  • 0-1533
  • 16-3030
  • 31-4512
  • 46-6033
  • 61-7520
  • 76-9041

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

All Bundesliga results
1:3Freiburg–Bayern MunichOur pick:H2 (−1)1.54prediction won7 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 5.49X 5.052 1.491:0Borussia Dortmund–Eintracht FrankfurtOur pick:H1 (−1.5)2.13prediction lost7 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 1 more in the same direction1 1.49X 4.972 5.582:3Mainz–Werder BremenOur pick:BTTS1.53prediction won11 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.75X 4.132 4.35