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data updated 27.10 08:07

FINISHED

Freiburg vs Bayern Munich 1:3: result and odds

Freiburg vs Bayern Munich finished 1:3; before kick-off the odds were 1.49 on a Bayern Munich win (having opened at 1.40), 5.49 on a Freiburg win and 5.05 on a draw. The AI models' pick was Bayern Munich −1 handicap at 1.54, and it won.

published · updated UTC

Freiburg
Bayern Munich

AI models' pick: Bayern Munich −1 handicap

1.54

The market prices this option at 61%

Asian handicap: the bet wins if Bayern Munich win by two goals or more; a one-goal win returns the stake.

AI models' pick · 7 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 9 chose others

Under half back the bet

Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results

won+0.54 units
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:28%odds 9.06

1:1 8%1:3 7% — this score came in2:2 6%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 25.10 15:17

result15.49−0.67X5.05−0.4021.49+0.09
total 3.5O1.79+0.18U2.03−0.29
both to scoreyes1.41+0.05no2.72−0.21
double chance1X2.59−0.30121.17+0.03X21.16+0.03
handicapH1 +1.51.68−0.17H2 −1.52.20+0.23

Over 7 days a Freiburg win shortened from 6.16 to 5.49 — money is coming in on the home side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementFreiburg 6.16 → 5.49 over 7 days · 103 snapshotsView

The biggest move is a Bayern Munich win: from 1.40 to 1.49 — 3.8 pp of implied chance, more than any other outcome.

Freiburg6.16 → 5.49Draw5.45 → 5.05Bayern Munich1.40 → 1.49
1.301.752.504.006.0018 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 Oct25 OctFreiburg 5.49Draw 5.05Bayern Munich 1.49

Price changes

Price changes in the 1X2 market
WhenFreiburgDrawBayern Munich
5.49+0.015.05−0.011.49−0.01
5.48−0.895.06−0.391.50+0.08
6.37+0.175.45−0.061.42+0.01
6.20−0.375.51−0.111.41+0.02
6.57−0.085.62−0.061.39+0.02
6.65+0.025.68−0.051.37−0.01
6.635.73+0.011.38+0.01
6.63−0.055.721.37
6.685.72−0.031.37
6.68−0.025.75+0.061.37
6.70+0.035.69+0.021.37
6.67+0.125.67+0.051.37
6.55−0.025.621.37−0.01
6.57+0.085.62−0.011.38
6.49+0.115.63+0.061.38+0.01
6.38−0.155.57−0.141.37
6.53+0.375.71+0.261.37−0.03
6.16opened5.45opened1.40opened
103 snapshots · the prices changed 17 times

How the match went

half-time 0:2

match report · 25.10 19:23

Bayern Munich won 3-1 at Freiburg, and the game was settled before the break. Dayot Upamecano scored on 16 minutes from a Michael Olise assist, and Serge Gnabry made it 2-0 on 42, with Nathaniel Brown setting him up. Freiburg got back into it only through Tom Bischof's own goal on 82 minutes, 1-2, and Olise ended it with a goal on 90+5. The xG was 3.05 for Bayern against 0.97, with nine shots on target to four, even though Freiburg had 44% of the ball. Freiburg collected three yellow cards to one. The Bayern Munich -1 handicap bet, price 1.54, landed. Before kick-off Bayern Munich to win were 1.49 and Freiburg 5.49, and the over 3.5 goals price of 1.79 also came in.

  1. 16'Bayern MunichDayot Upamecano (Michael Olise)0:1
  2. 25'FreiburgLucas Höler YC
  3. 42'Bayern MunichSerge Gnabry (Nathaniel Brown)0:2
  4. 55'FreiburgJan-Niklas Beste YC
  5. 57'Freiburgon Igor Matanović, off Lucas Höler
  6. 58'Freiburgon Rihito Yamamoto, off Patrick Osterhage
  7. 61'Bayern Munichon Sacha Boey, off Josip Stanišić
  8. 61'Bayern Munichon Ismael Saibari, off Serge Gnabry
  9. 64'Freiburgon Cyriaque Irié, off Jan-Niklas Beste
  10. 65'Bayern MunichJonathan Tah YC
  11. 73'Bayern Munichon Alphonso Davies, off Nathaniel Brown
  12. 77'Freiburgon Vincenzo Grifo, off Derry Lionel Scherhant
  13. 77'Freiburgon Maximilian Rosenfelder, off Philipp Lienhart
  14. 82'FreiburgTom Bischof own goal1:2
  15. 85'FreiburgMaximilian Eggestein YC
  16. 86'Bayern Munichon Hiroki Ito, off Lennart Karl
  17. 90+5'Bayern MunichMichael Olise1:3
Match stats: Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
FreiburgstatBayern Munich
0.97expected goals (xG)3.05
16shots17
4on target9
44%possession56%
5corners6
9fouls11
6saves4
3yellow cards1
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Freiburg

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager J. Schuster

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1M. Backhaus6.9
  • 33J. Makengo6.0
  • 3P. Lienhart6.4
  • 28M. Ginter6.6
  • 29P. Treu6.3
  • 6P. Osterhage6.1
  • 8M. Eggestein6.2
  • 7D. Scherhant6.0
  • 14Y. Suzuki6.5
  • 19J. Beste5.8
  • 9L. Höler6.2
substitutes
  • 20R. Yamamotoon 58'5.8
  • 37M. Rosenfelderon 77'5.9
  • 21F. Müller
  • 31I. Matanovićon 57'6.9
  • 17L. Kübler
  • 22Cyriaque Kalou Iriéon 64'6.4
  • 30C. Günter
  • 32V. Grifoon 77'6.3
  • 42K. Goto
Bayern Munich

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager V. Kompany

starting XIfeed rating
  • 40J. Urbig7.5
  • 11N. Brown7.3
  • 4J. Tah6.7
  • 2D. Upamecano7.8
  • 44J. Stanišić6.8
  • 8T. Bischof6.2
  • 27K. Laimer7.0
  • 7S. Gnabry7.9
  • 42L. Karl6.3
  • 17M. Olise — highest feed rating in the match9.0
  • 9H. Kane6.4
substitutes
  • 34I. Saibarion 61'6.8
  • 47David Daiber
  • 30Cassiano Kiala
  • 21H. Itoon 86'6.6
  • 19A. Davieson 73'6.7
  • 35Jannis Bärtl
  • 46T. Binder
  • 26S. Ulreich
  • 23S. Boeyon 61'7.1

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on Bayern Munich −1 — the bet won. 3 more chose close bets in the same direction: Bayern Munich −1.5. 4 more each on both teams to score (won) and on over 3.5 goals (won). One more bet on over 2.5 goals.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:55 UTC

Bayern Munich sit top of the Bundesliga with 14 points after six rounds, with 25 goals scored and seven conceded, and an xG of around 3.7 per game against one at their own end. The head-to-head record is just as lopsided: eight wins in the last 10 meetings, including a 6-2. That was in November 2025. The market rates the Bayern -1 handicap at 61%, and the price of 1.40 on a straight away win has not moved in 24 hours, even though their hosts are third.

The case against is built at home. Freiburg have won all three of their home games, scoring 3.7 and conceding 0.7 on average, and they have yet to be kept off the scoresheet on their own pitch. Bayern are far more restrained on the road: 1.3 goals scored and one conceded per game. Their last two trips to Freiburg finished 2-3 and 1-2, and scorelines like that would see the handicap bet go down.

Where we could be wrong

Even so, the gap in quality and the weight of the recent meetings point one way. Our pick is the Bayern Munich -1 handicap.

  • 7 of 16 AI models back this bet; more than half chose something else.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first · as of 25.10
Freiburg
Recent matches: Freiburg
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
22.10MonacoConference LeagueA0:3L
18.10Bayer LeverkusenA1:2xG 1.1–1.7L
15.10JablonecConference LeagueH3:2xG 1.9–1.2W
11.10SchalkeH2:1xG 1.1–0.3W
03.10FC Luzernclub friendlyH4:2W
19.09Eintracht FrankfurtA2:2xG 3.1–2.2D
Bayern Munich
Recent matches: Bayern Munich
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
21.10ArsenalChampions LeagueH2:2D
17.10LeipzigH6:1xG 3.5–0.9W
13.10VikingChampions LeagueA3:3xG 3.5–0.6D
10.10AugsburgA2:2xG 5.0–2.4D
18.09Union BerlinH7:0xG 3.7–0.3W
13.09ElversbergA2:1xG 2.8–0.9W

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstFreiburgBayern MunichBundesliga
goals2.5 / 13.7 / 0.81.8
xG1.9 / 0.93.5 / 0.91.8
shots16.2 / 9.224.3 / 7.815.6
shots on target5.3 / 2.510.3 / 2.85.5
corners5.2 / 3.59.7 / 2.75.4
fouls9.5 / 14.210.5 / 9.311.5
yellow cards1.5 / 1.80.8 / 2.21.7
matches over 2.583%83%
both scored67%67%
clean sheets33%33%
failed to score0%17%
home / away
goals3.7 / 0.71.3 / 1
average total4.32.3
matches over 2.5100%67%
both scored67%67%
  • Freiburg score more than the league average: 2.5 vs 1.8
  • Bayern Munich score more than the league average: 3.7 vs 1.8
  • Bayern Munich unbeaten in the last 5 league games
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Freiburg, away games only for Bayern Munich

Head to head

last 10

1–1–8Freiburg wins · draws · Bayern Munich wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich2:304.04.26
Bayern Munich vs Freiburg6:222.11.25
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich1:225.01.25
Bayern Munich vs Freiburg2:001.09.24
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich2:201.03.24
Bayern Munich vs Freiburg3:008.10.23
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich0:108.04.23
Bayern Munich vs Freiburg1:204.04.23DFB Pokal
Bayern Munich vs Freiburg5:016.10.22
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich1:402.04.22
  • both scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 8 of 10

League table

League standings: Bundesliga
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
1Bayern Munich64-2-022–514DWWDW
2Borussia Dortmund64-2-011–414WWWDD
3Freiburg64-1-115–613WWDWL
4Bayer Leverkusen64-1-116–913WDWWW

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10

Goals by minute

league season
Freiburg
  • 0-1521
  • 16-3042
  • 31-4521
  • 46-6030
  • 61-7500
  • 76-9042
Bayern Munich
  • 0-1511
  • 16-3040
  • 31-4530
  • 46-6052
  • 61-7542
  • 76-9041

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

All Bundesliga results
3:0Hoffenheim–Bayer LeverkusenOur pick:O 3.51.96prediction lost6 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 4 more in the same direction1 3.21X 4.122 2.021:0Borussia Dortmund–Eintracht FrankfurtOur pick:H1 (−1.5)2.13prediction lost7 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 1 more in the same direction1 1.49X 4.972 5.582:3Mainz–Werder BremenOur pick:BTTS1.53prediction won11 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.75X 4.132 4.35