31 Oct
Schalke vs Leipzig: AI betting tips and pick
On 31 October, Schalke host Leipzig. The AI models' pick is Leipzig to win at 1.84; Leipzig have won the last 5 meetings.
- Bundesliga, matchday 8 of 34
- +13°, clear
- VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Leipzig to win
1.84The market prices this option at 51%
Now 1.86 · 1.84 when published
AI models' pick · 9 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 7 chose others
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
likely score
1:2 9%2:1 7%2:2 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 7 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 2 days a draw shortened from 4.01 to 3.92 — money is coming in on the draw.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Leipzig: 1.84 → 1.86 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (a Leipzig win) has drifted from 1.84 to 1.86: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Schalke | Draw | Leipzig · our bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.77+0.01 | 3.92 | 1.86 | |
| 3.76−0.03 | 3.92 | 1.86+0.02 | |
| 25 Oct – 26 Oct · no snapshots for 18 h | |||
| 3.79−0.01 | 3.92−0.09 | 1.84 | |
| We published a Leipzig win at 1.84 | |||
| 3.80opened | 4.01opened | 1.84opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for a Leipzig win. 4 more chose close bets in the same direction: Leipzig −1 and Leipzig −1.5. 4 more went for under 2.5 goals. The other 3 went for at least one side failing to score.
- 5 of 162our betodds 1.84
GeminiDeepSeek Flash
Sonar
Dots3-NoteNemotron Super - 3 of 16H2 (−1)same directionodds 2.42KimiQwenNemotron Ultra
- 1 of 16H2 (−1.5)same directionodds 3.04Mistral
- 4 of 16U 2.5odds 2.75DeepSeek
GrokMiniMaxXiaomi MiMo - 3 of 16BTTS noodds 2.73ChatGPTClaude
GLM
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 25.10 at 13:01 UTC
This analysis was written on 25.10: the teams have played since, and the points, games or position in the table below have moved on.
Schalke sit 15th on five points and have not scored in their last three home league matches. Leipzig arrive with nine points and seventh place, 29 goals scored and 19 conceded this season, 17.5 shots per game against 12 for the hosts and 51.9% possession. The previous meetings point the same way: two wins, one draw and seven defeats for Schalke in the last ten, a 6-1 win for Leipzig in Gelsenkirchen in January 2023 and, before that, 3-0 and 5-0. The market gives the visitors 51%, which is plenty for a trip away, yet the evidence behind that price stacks up, and our pick is Leipzig to win.
Where we could be wrong
There is one question hanging over it: why do Leipzig keep falling apart on the road? All three away matches have been lost, with 0.7 scored and 3.7 conceded per game, and that is no longer a one-off. Schalke, meanwhile, have kept a clean sheet in two of their three home games and concede 0.3 on average, so the night in Gelsenkirchen could easily turn into a tight, cagey game with no goals, where one set piece is enough to earn the hosts a point.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Schalke| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.10 | Köln | A | 0:0xG 0.7–1.3 | D |
| 17.10 | Mainz | H | 0:1xG 0.3–1.5 | L |
| 11.10 | Freiburg | A | 1:2xG 0.3–1.1 | L |
| 03.10 | Austria Lustenauclub friendly | A | 1:0 | W |
| 24.09 | Rot-weiss Oberhausenclub friendly | A | 5:2 | W |
| 20.09 | Elversberg | H | 0:0xG 1.0–1.0 | D |
Leipzig| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.10 | Elversberg | H | 4:0xG 2.9–0.7 | W |
| 21.10 | Real MadridChampions League | A | 1:4xG 1.5–3.1 | L |
| 17.10 | Bayern Munich | A | 1:6xG 0.9–3.5 | L |
| 13.10 | PSVChampions League | H | 1:0xG 2.1–1.4 | W |
| 10.10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | H | 6:0xG 4.0–1.5 | W |
| 20.09 | Bayer Leverkusen | A | 0:2xG 1.0–2.3 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Bundesliga |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 0.6 / 1 | 2.9 / 1.6 | 1.8 |
| xG | 0.9 / 1.8 | 2.4 / 1.6 | 1.8 |
| shots | 10 / 14.9 | 17.1 / 15.3 | 15.4 |
| shots on target | 3.1 / 6 | 6.4 / 6.9 | 5.4 |
| corners | 3.3 / 6.3 | 5.3 / 6.7 | 5.3 |
| fouls | 9.7 / 11 | 9.9 / 14.1 | 11.3 |
| yellow cards | 1.1 / 1.9 | 1 / 1.4 | 1.8 |
| matches over 2.5 | 43% | 86% | |
| both scored | 29% | 29% | |
| clean sheets | 43% | 57% | |
| failed to score | 71% | 14% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 0 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 3.7 | |
| average total | 0.3 | 4.3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| both scored | 0% | 67% | |
- Schalke score less than the league average: 0.6 vs 1.8
- Leipzig score more than the league average: 2.9 vs 1.8
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Schalke, away games only for Leipzig
Head to head
2–1–7Schalke wins · draws · Leipzig wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leipzig vs Schalke | 4:2 | 27.05.23 | |
| Schalke vs Leipzig | 1:6 | 24.01.23 | |
| Schalke vs Leipzig | 0:3 | 06.02.21 | |
| Leipzig vs Schalke | 4:0 | 03.10.20 | |
| Schalke vs Leipzig | 0:5 | 22.02.20 | |
| Leipzig vs Schalke | 1:3 | 28.09.19 | |
| Schalke vs Leipzig | 0:1 | 16.03.19 | |
| Leipzig vs Schalke | 0:0 | 28.10.18 | |
| Leipzig vs Schalke | 3:1 | 13.01.18 | |
| Schalke vs Leipzig | 2:0 | 19.08.17 |
- both scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 7 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4-1-2 | 16–12 | 13 | DWWWL |
| 5 | Leipzig | 7 | 4-0-3 | 20–11 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3-3-1 | 15–14 | 12 | DWDDW |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 7 | 2-0-5 | 10–13 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | Schalke | 7 | 1-3-3 | 4–7 | 6 | WDLLD |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1-3-3 | 6–18 | 6 | LLWDD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1501
- 16-3022
- 31-4500
- 46-6010
- 61-7500
- 76-9014
- 0-1522
- 16-3031
- 31-4522
- 46-6033
- 61-7542
- 76-90+61
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
