21 Oct
Levante vs Athletic Bilbao: AI prediction and betting pick
On 21 October, Levante host Athletic Bilbao. The AI models' pick is both teams to score at 1.69: 7 of 16 models chose it.
- Referee: Alejandro Quintero González
- LaLiga, matchday 6 of 38
- +19°, mostly clear
- Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia
published · updated UTC


AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.69Now 1.74 · 1.69 when published
AI models' pick · 7 of 16 for this bet, 9 for others
Split panelOur football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
Match odds
Over 29 days a draw shortened from 3.43 to 3.28 — money is coming in on the draw.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.69 → 1.74 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (both teams score) has drifted from 1.69 to 1.74: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.74+0.15 | 2.01−0.24 | |
| 23 Sep – 12 Oct · no snapshots for 19 days | ||
| We published both teams score at 1.69 | ||
| 1.59−0.04 | 2.25+0.08 | |
| 16 Sep – 20 Sep · no snapshots for 4 days | ||
| 1.63−0.02 | 2.17+0.04 | |
| 1.65 | 2.13−0.01 | |
| 1.65 | 2.14+0.01 | |
| 1.65−0.01 | 2.13+0.01 | |
| 1.66−0.02 | 2.12+0.03 | |
| 1.68−0.01 | 2.09+0.01 | |
| 1.69opened | 2.08opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for both teams to score. 5 more went for an Athletic Bilbao win. The other 4 chose other bets: total-goals bets and double chance.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 09.10 at 13:40 UTC
Levante's home games this season have been open affairs: both the hosts and their opponents have found the net in each, with an average of 3.5 goals of their own against three conceded, and neither match stayed under 2.5 goals. Athletic Bilbao arrive without two first-choice centre-backs — Dani Vivian, who played 41 matches last season, is out with a hamstring problem, and Unai Egiluz with a knee injury. The market leans the same way, rating the chance of both teams scoring at around 55%, and our pick is both teams to score at 1.69.
Where we could be wrong
There is a case against it. Levante are missing Karl Etta Eyong and his six goals from last season, and goalkeeper Primo is injured. The visitors, meanwhile, have scored and conceded just one goal apiece across their two away trips, keeping a clean sheet in one of them. Add a thunderstorm and rain around kick-off: that sort of weather tends to break up attacking play rather than help it.
- 7 of 16 AI models back this bet: it is the most common answer, but more than half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
- K. Etta EyongFW · 6 goals in 2025/26injuryout
- A. PrimoGKshoulder injuryout
- U. EgiluzDFknee injuryout
- D. VivianDF · 41 matches in 2025/26hamstring injuryout
- P. CanalesMF · 6 goals in 2025/26muscle injurydoubtful
- G. GuruzetaFW · 17 goals in 2025/26hamstring injurydoubtful
managers: Luís Castro · E. Terzić · main formations this season: 4-1-4-1 · 4-2-3-1
Recent matches
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.09 | Barcelona | H | 2:4 | L |
| 06.09 | Málaga | A | 0:0xG 0.8–1.5 | D |
| 29.08 | Real Betis | H | 5:2xG 2.8–1.9 | W |
| 24.08 | Osasuna | A | 0:0xG 1.3–0.7 | D |
| 16.08 | Espanyol | A | 0:3xG 0.3–1.6 | L |
| 08.08 | Castellónclub friendly | A | 3:1 | W |
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.09 | Elche | H | 1:1 | D |
| 05.09 | Atlético Madrid | H | 3:0xG 1.4–1.0 | W |
| 30.08 | Celta Vigo | A | 2:0xG 2.8–0.8 | W |
| 27.08 | Barcelona | A | 0:2xG 0.3–4.2 | L |
| 22.08 | Sevilla | H | 1:3xG 1.3–0.4 | L |
| 21.08 | Zaragozaclub friendly | A | 1:3 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | LaLiga | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.6 / 2.1 | 1.2 / 1 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.4 / 2.2 | 1.6 / 1.1 | 1.5 |
| shots | 12 / 15.6 | 15.7 / 9.5 | 13.4 |
| shots on target | 4.3 / 5.7 | 4.7 / 3.7 | 4.7 |
| corners | 3.3 / 5.3 | 6.2 / 4.8 | 4.9 |
| fouls | 9.6 / 12.1 | 11.2 / 11.3 | 12.4 |
| yellow cards | 1.1 / 2.3 | 2 / 1.7 | 2.1 |
| matches over 2.5 | 71% | 33% | |
| both scored | 57% | 33% | |
| clean sheets | 29% | 50% | |
| failed to score | 43% | 33% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 3.3 / 3 | 1 / 1 | |
| average total | 6.3 | 2 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| both scored | 100% | 0% | |
- Levante shoot less often than the league average: 12 shots vs 13.4
- Athletic Bilbao score less than the league average: 1.2 vs 1.5
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Levante, away games only for Athletic Bilbao
Head to head
0–3–7Levante wins · draws · Athletic Bilbao wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Bilbao vs Levante | 4:2 | 08.02.26 | |
| Levante vs Athletic Bilbao | 0:2 | 29.11.25 | |
| Athletic Bilbao vs Levante | 3:1 | 07.03.22 | |
| Levante vs Athletic Bilbao | 0:0 | 19.11.21 | |
| Levante vs Athletic Bilbao | 1:2 | 04.03.21 | Copa del Rey |
| Levante vs Athletic Bilbao | 1:1 | 26.02.21 | |
| Athletic Bilbao vs Levante | 1:1 | 11.02.21 | Copa del Rey |
| Athletic Bilbao vs Levante | 2:0 | 18.10.20 | |
| Levante vs Athletic Bilbao | 1:2 | 12.07.20 | |
| Athletic Bilbao vs Levante | 2:1 | 10.11.19 |
- both scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 5 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Espanyol | 5 | 2-1-2 | 8–5 | 7 | WDLLW |
| 9 | Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 2-1-2 | 7–6 | 7 | DWWLL |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 5 | 2-1-2 | 9–9 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2-1-3 | 6–11 | 7 | LWDWL |
| 13 | Levante | 5 | 1-2-2 | 7–9 | 5 | LDWDL |
| 14 | Getafe | 5 | 1-2-2 | 3–6 | 5 | DDLWL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1502
- 16-3011
- 31-4513
- 46-6011
- 61-7510
- 76-9032
- 0-1501
- 16-3020
- 31-4501
- 46-6023
- 61-7510
- 76-9021
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals