FINISHED
Racing Santander vs Espanyol 2:1: result and odds
Racing Santander vs Espanyol finished 2:1; before kick-off the odds were 2.30 on a Racing Santander win (having opened at 2.48), 2.98 on an Espanyol win and 3.63 on a draw. The AI models' pick was both teams to score at 1.57, and it won.
- Referee: Jesús Gil Manzano
- LaLiga, matchday 10 of 38
- +16°, overcast
- Campos de Sport de El Sardinero, Santander
published · updated UTC


AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.57The market prices this option at 59%
AI models' pick · 11 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 5 chose others
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
2:1 9% — this score came in1:2 8%1:0 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 6 days an Espanyol win drifted from 2.68 to 2.98 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.57 → 1.51 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (both teams score) has shortened from 1.57 to 1.51: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.51 | 2.44+0.02 | |
| 1.51−0.01 | 2.42+0.02 | |
| 1.52 | 2.40−0.01 | |
| 1.52 | 2.41+0.01 | |
| 1.52−0.01 | 2.40+0.02 | |
| 1.53 | 2.38+0.03 | |
| 1.53−0.01 | 2.35−0.01 | |
| 1.54−0.03 | 2.36+0.09 | |
| 18 Oct – 21 Oct · no snapshots for 3 days | ||
| We published both teams score at 1.57 | ||
| 1.57opened | 2.27opened | |
How the match went
Espanyol went ahead on 62 minutes through Eduardo Expósito Jaén. Racing Santander levelled on 69 with Jeanuël Belocian scoring from a Sergio Canales assist, and Yassir Zabiri made it 2-1 on 84, set up by Alvaro Mantilla. It had been 0-0 at half-time, with a penalty overturned after a VAR check on 39 minutes. Racing Santander won 2-1 with 23 shots to 11 and nine on target to one. The xG was 2.50 to 0.62, and Espanyol's keeper made seven saves. Espanyol collected four yellow cards, Racing three. The both-teams-to-score bet, taken at odds of 1.57, landed. Before kick-off Racing Santander were 2.30 to win, and over 2.5 goals was on offer at 1.64; three were scored.
- 8'
Iñigo Vicente YC - 17'
Pol Lozano YC - 39'
penalty overturned (VAR) · Álex Calatrava Torrado - 43'
José Manuel González Álvarez YC - 62'
Eduardo Expósito Jaén (Francisco Javier Hernandez Coarasa)0:1 - 67'
Pablo Ramon Parra YC - 67'
on Iker Luque, off Matteo Prati - 67'
on Pablo García, off Andrés Martín - 69'
Jeanuël Belocian (Sergio Canales)1:1 - 70'
Urko Gonzalez YC - 76'
on Tyrhys Dolan, off Francisco Javier Hernandez Coarasa - 76'
on Javi Puado, off Bryan Zaragoza - 82'
on André Almeida, off Sergio Canales - 82'
on Pedro Felipe, off Pablo Ramon Parra - 84'
Yassir Zabiri (Alvaro Mantilla)2:1 - 85'
on Urko Gonzalez, off Pol Lozano - 85'
on Marcos Fernández, off Álex Calatrava Torrado - 88'
on Maguette Gueye, off Iñigo Vicente - 89'
Javi Puado YC - 90'
Eduardo Expósito Jaén YC - 90+5'
on Unai Núñez, off Vanja Drkusic - 90+7'
Jorge Salinas Viadero YC
| Racing Santander | stat | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | expected goals (xG) | 0.62 |
| 23 | shots | 11 |
| 9 | on target | 1 |
| 55% | possession | 45% |
| 9 | corners | 4 |
| 10 | fouls | 17 |
| 0 | saves | 7 |
| 3 | yellow cards | 4 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
- 13Julen Agirrezabala6.3
- 17Jorge Salinas6.9
- 24J. Belocian7.8
- 5Pablo Ramón7.0
- 2Álvaro Mantilla6.6
- 23Iván Martín6.6
- 18M. Prati6.4
- 10Iñigo Vicente6.8
- 20Sergio Canales7.5
- 11Andrés Martín7.0
- 21M. Zabiri8.1
- 22Pedro Felipeon 82'6.2
- 12Asier Villalibre
- 6Íñigo Sainz-Maza
- 8André Almeidaon 82'6.5
- 3Aarón Martín
- 19Iker Luqueon 67'6.5
- 9Juan Carlos Arana
- 15Pablo Garcíaon 67'6.7
- 16Facundo González
- 14M. Gueyeon 88'6.4
- 7G. Guliashvili
- 31Laro Gómez
- 1Ángel Fortuño7.2
- 3Q. Hartman6.5
- 6L. Cabrera6.3
- 16V. Drkušić6.6
- 23O. El Hilali6.9
- 15Bryan Zaragoza5.6
- 10Pol Lozano6.4
- 8Edu Expósito — highest feed rating in the match8.2
- 28Javier Hernandez6.4
- 22Álex Calatrava5.9
- 9Roberto Fernández6.3
- 26Rafel Bauzà
- 13M. Dmitrović
- 24T. Dolanon 76'6.0
- 18Marcos Fernándezon 85'6.2
- 4Urko Gonzálezon 85'5.9
- 2Gorosabel
- 21Roger Hinojo
- 11Pere Milla
- 14Unai Núñezon 90+5'
- 7Javi Puadoon 76'6.1
- 5C. Riedel
- 20Gabriel Moscardo
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on both teams to score — the bet won. 5 more bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet won.
- 11 of 16BTTSour betodds 1.57ChatGPTClaude
GrokQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMaxMistralXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-NoteNemotron Superwon - 5 of 16O 2.5odds 1.72DeepSeek
GeminiKimi
SonarNemotron Ultrawon
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:54 UTC
Racing Santander's home games have been anything but quiet. In all four matches at El Sardinero both teams found the net, over 2.5 goals landed every time, and the hosts average 2.3 goals scored and 1.8 conceded there. Across six league matches Racing have shipped 20 goals and have not kept a clean sheet at home once. Espanyol are balanced at both ends on the road — 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded, both teams scored in three of their four away games, and the Catalans have never been shut out on their travels. The market rates goals at both ends at 59%, and our pick is both teams to score at 1.57.
Where we could be wrong
There is one doubt: what if Espanyol turn up to defend their goal? They already have two clean sheets this season, and Racing have a real problem creating — 0.71 xG per game against 2.22 for their opponents, with the hosts failing to score at all on two occasions this season.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10 | Osasuna | A | 0:2xG 0.3–3.4 | L |
| 11.10 | Valencia | H | 2:2xG 1.3–1.7 | D |
| 19.09 | Celta Vigo | A | 0:5xG 0.8–2.1 | L |
| 16.09 | Barcelona | A | 2:7 | L |
| 12.09 | Deportivo Alavés | H | 2:1 | W |
| 05.09 | Rayo Vallecano | A | 2:3xG 0.5–1.6 | L |
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Atlético Madrid | H | 0:1xG 0.6–1.4 | L |
| 09.10 | Málaga | A | 1:1xG 1.1–0.7 | D |
| 18.09 | Elche | H | 1:3xG 1.1–1.6 | L |
| 15.09 | Rayo Vallecano | A | 1:2xG 1.5–1.5 | L |
| 12.09 | Osasuna | A | 2:0 | W |
| 06.09 | Sevilla | H | 1:1xG 1.2–0.5 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | LaLiga | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.4 / 2.8 | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.3 / 2.3 | 1.1 / 1.3 | 1.5 |
| shots | 11.2 / 16.3 | 12.7 / 13.1 | 13.5 |
| shots on target | 4.4 / 6.7 | 3.7 / 5.1 | 4.8 |
| corners | 4.7 / 8.2 | 2.3 / 5.4 | 4.9 |
| fouls | 13.8 / 14.8 | 16.1 / 10.4 | 12.3 |
| yellow cards | 2.7 / 2.4 | 3 / 2.7 | 2.2 |
| matches over 2.5 | 78% | 56% | |
| both scored | 67% | 67% | |
| clean sheets | 0% | 22% | |
| failed to score | 33% | 11% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 2.3 / 1.8 | 1.3 / 1.3 | |
| average total | 4 | 2.5 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| both scored | 100% | 75% | |
- Racing Santander shoot less often than the league average: 11.2 shots vs 13.5
- Espanyol score less than the league average: 1.2 vs 1.5
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Racing Santander, away games only for Espanyol
Head to head
2–1–3Racing Santander wins · draws · Espanyol wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander vs Espanyol | 2:0 | 10.02.24 | Segunda División |
| Espanyol vs Racing Santander | 2:0 | 19.08.23 | Segunda División |
| Espanyol vs Racing Santander | 3:1 | 19.03.12 | |
| Racing Santander vs Espanyol | 0:1 | 22.10.11 | |
| Espanyol vs Racing Santander | 1:2 | 03.04.11 | |
| Racing Santander vs Espanyol | 0:0 | 14.11.10 |
- both scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 6
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Villarreal | 9 | 2-3-4 | 13–13 | 9 | LWWLD |
| 13 | Espanyol | 9 | 2-2-5 | 11–12 | 8 | WLLDL |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2-2-3 | 11–16 | 8 | WLWD |
| 15 | Getafe | 8 | 2-2-4 | 4–10 | 8 | DDLWL |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 9 | 2-2-5 | 13–25 | 8 | WLLDL |
| 17 | Levante | 8 | 1-4-3 | 12–16 | 7 | DLLDD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10
Goals by minute
- 0-1522
- 16-3043
- 31-4556
- 46-6021
- 61-7513
- 76-9007
- 0-1533
- 16-3023
- 31-4520
- 46-6010
- 61-7502
- 76-9025
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals