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data updated 27.10 08:07

FINISHED

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche 0:3: result and odds

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche finished 0:3 in an upset; before kick-off the odds were 4.59 on an Elche win (having opened at 4.49), 1.77 on a Rayo Vallecano win and 3.85 on a draw. The AI models' pick was both teams to score at 1.73, and it lost.

published · updated UTC

Rayo Vallecano
Elche

AI models' pick: Both teams to score

1.73

The market prices this option at 54%

AI models' pick · 14 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 2 chose others

Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results

lost−1.00 unitsclosing odds1.75CLV−1%
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
closing odds
The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
CLV
How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:113%odds 6.93

2:1 10%1:0 9%2:0 9%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 24.10 11:07

result11.77+0.01X3.85+0.0824.59+0.10
total 2.5O1.84+0.02U1.99−0.01
both to scoreyes1.75 — matches our bet+0.02no2.00−0.01
double chance1X1.20121.25−0.02X22.06+0.02
handicapH1 −12.35+0.01H2 +11.60+0.01

Over 6 days an Elche win drifted from 4.49 to 4.59 — fewer bets on the away side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.73 → 1.75 since we publishedView

Since we published, our bet (both teams score) has drifted from 1.73 to 1.75: the market now rates it as less likely.

Yes1.73 → 1.75our betNo2.01 → 2.00
1.701.801.902.003 daysno data18 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 OctWe published · 1.73No 2.00Yes 1.75

Price changes

Price changes in the Both to score market
WhenYes · our betNo
1.75+0.012.00
1.74−0.012.00
1.75+0.012.00−0.01
1.74+0.012.01−0.01
1.732.02+0.01
1.73−0.012.01
1.74+0.012.01
18 Oct – 21 Oct · no snapshots for 3 days
We published both teams score at 1.73
1.73opened2.01opened
39 snapshots · the prices changed 7 times

How the match went

half-time 0:2

match report · 25.10 04:00

Elche won 3-0 at Rayo Vallecano, with two penalties putting them 2-0 up at half-time. Federico Redondo Solari scored the first on 23 minutes. A VAR check on 33 confirmed a second, and Fernando Niño Rodríguez converted it on 36. Pathé Ciss missed a penalty for Rayo Vallecano on 39. Germán Valera added the third on 68 minutes, set up by Facundo Buonanotte. The xG agreed with the result: 2.63 for Elche against 1.61, and nine shots on target to five, even though Rayo Vallecano had 57% of the ball. Our both-teams-to-score bet, backed at 1.73, went down because Rayo Vallecano never scored. The market had Rayo Vallecano as favourites, with their win on offer at 1.77 and Elche's at 4.59. Over 2.5 goals was priced 1.84 and landed.

  1. 10'ElcheJavier Morcillo Rodrigálvarez YC
  2. 23'ElcheFederico Redondo Solari penalty0:1
  3. 30'ElcheGonzalo Villar YC
  4. 30'ElcheFederico Redondo Solari YC
  5. 33'Elchepenalty confirmed (VAR) · Thomas Lemar
  6. 35'Rayo VallecanoPathé Ciss YC
  7. 36'ElcheFernando Niño Rodríguez penalty0:2
  8. 39'Rayo VallecanoPathé Ciss missed penalty
  9. 45'Elcheon Facundo Buonanotte, off Gonzalo Villar
  10. 45'Rayo Vallecanoon Georgiy Tsitaishvili, off Jorge De Frutos
  11. 45'Rayo Vallecanoon Alexandre Zurawski, off Sergio Camello
  12. 54'Rayo VallecanoAdrià Pedrosa YC
  13. 60'Rayo Vallecanoon Jozhua Vertrouwd, off Adrià Pedrosa
  14. 60'Rayo Vallecanoon Isi Palazón, off Pedro Díaz
  15. 61'Elcheon Abiel Alessio Osorio, off Fernando Niño Rodríguez
  16. 68'ElcheGermán Valera (Facundo Buonanotte)0:3
  17. 72'Elcheon Martim Neto, off Thomas Lemar
  18. 72'Elcheon Tete Morente, off Lucas Cepeda
  19. 76'Rayo Vallecanoon Gnangoro Bouare, off Ivan Balliu
  20. 81'Rayo VallecanoÁlvaro García YC
  21. 83'Elcheon Pedro Bigas, off Federico Redondo Solari
Match stats: Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
Rayo VallecanostatElche
1.61expected goals (xG)2.63
18shots16
5on target9
57%possession43%
3corners3
15fouls11
6saves4
3yellow cards3
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Rayo Vallecano

formation 4-3-3 · manager Beñat San José

starting XIfeed rating
  • 25E. Audero6.7
  • 17Adrià Pedrosa6.0
  • 15Mujaid Sadick6.6
  • 24F. Lejeune6.5
  • 20I. Balliu6.4
  • 8Unai López7.2
  • 6P. Ciss6.3
  • 4Pedro Díaz5.7
  • 18Álvaro García5.4
  • 10Sergio Camello6.1
  • 19Jorge de Frutos5.8
substitutes
  • 37Rayane Belid
  • 34Iván Alonso Martín
  • 36G. Bouareon 76'6.7
  • 22Pelayo Fernández
  • 3M. Kumbulla
  • 30Adrián Molina
  • 7Isi Palazónon 60'5.8
  • 21Fran Pérez
  • 14G. Tsitaishvilion 45'6.4
  • 23Óscar Valentín
  • 33J. Vertrouwdon 60'6.0
  • 9Alemãoon 45'6.2
Elche

formation 4-3-3 · manager M. Anselmi

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1M. Dituro — highest feed rating in the match7.9
  • 3R. Revivo7.7
  • 23Víctor Chust7.2
  • 5F. Redondo7.3
  • 2Buba Sangaré7.6
  • 18T. Lemar7.2
  • 47J. Morcillo7.4
  • 12Gonzalo Villar6.7
  • 11Germán Valera7.9
  • 14Fer Niño6.9
  • 21L. Cepeda6.8
substitutes
  • 6Bigason 83'7.0
  • 10F. Buonanotteon 45'7.1
  • 16Martim Netoon 72'6.9
  • 19G. Diangana
  • 17Josan
  • 13Alejandro Iturbe
  • 15K. Lomónaco
  • 20Tete Morenteon 72'6.7
  • 24A. Osorioon 61'6.5
  • 9E. Ponce
  • 22Rubén Sánchez
  • 26Matia Barzic Gutiérrez

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on both teams to score — the bet lost. 2 more bet on a Rayo Vallecano win — the bet lost.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:54 UTC

Both teams have found the net in all three of Rayo Vallecano's home games this season, an average of 3.3 goals a match, with the hosts scoring two and conceding 1.3. Elche look much the same on the road: four trips, goals at both ends every time, 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in that role. The previous meetings in Madrid followed the same pattern, with nobody shutting the other out: 2-1 to Rayo in October 2022 and 2-1 again in October 2021. The market puts the chance of both teams scoring at 54%, just over half, and our pick is both teams to score at 1.73.

Where we could be wrong

The doubt sits with the Elche attack: 0.87 xG per match, three games without a goal and two in which the visitors themselves were not breached. The last trip to Vallecas, back in April, finished 1-0, so a blank for Elche is a real possibility.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first · as of 18.10
Rayo Vallecano
Recent matches: Rayo Vallecano
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10.10Athletic BilbaoH0:0xG 0.0–0.1D
19.09OsasunaA1:1xG 1.0–0.5D
15.09EspanyolH2:1xG 1.5–1.5W
12.09Real MadridA1:4L
05.09Racing SantanderH3:2xG 1.6–0.5W
31.08BarcelonaA2:5xG 1.1–2.8L
Elche
Recent matches: Elche
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17.10VillarrealA0:0xG 0.3–2.2D
11.10Celta VigoH0:0xG 0.8–0.5D
18.09EspanyolA3:1xG 1.6–1.1W
15.09Real MadridH2:3xG 0.8–3.6L
12.09Athletic BilbaoA1:1D
07.09Real SociedadH2:3L

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstRayo VallecanoElcheLaLiga
goals1.5 / 2.11.2 / 1.91.5
xG1.4 / 1.61.1 / 1.91.5
shots14.4 / 1611 / 14.913.5
shots on target4.6 / 5.44.2 / 4.44.8
corners5.6 / 6.44.6 / 4.74.9
fouls12.9 / 1313.4 / 13.312.3
yellow cards2.5 / 2.32.4 / 1.92.2
matches over 2.563%56%
both scored100%67%
clean sheets0%22%
failed to score0%33%
home / away
goals2 / 1.31.4 / 1.2
average total3.32.6
matches over 2.567%40%
both scored100%80%
  • Elche score less than the league average: 1.2 vs 1.5
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Rayo Vallecano, away games only for Elche

Head to head

last 10

4–2–4Rayo Vallecano wins · draws · Elche wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche1:003.04.26
Elche vs Rayo Vallecano4:021.12.25
Elche vs Rayo Vallecano4:029.04.23
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche2:103.10.22
Elche vs Rayo Vallecano2:118.02.22
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche2:117.10.21
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche2:016.01.21Copa del Rey
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche2:308.03.20Segunda División
Elche vs Rayo Vallecano1:105.10.19Segunda División
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche1:121.01.17Segunda División
  • both scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 6 of 10

League table

League standings: LaLiga
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
13Espanyol92-2-511–128WLLDL
14Rayo Vallecano72-2-311–168WLWD
15Getafe82-2-44–108DDLWL
17Levante81-4-312–167DLLDD
18Elche91-4-411–177DLWDD
19Valencia91-3-56–156LWLDD

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10

Goals by minute

league season
Rayo Vallecano
  • 0-1532
  • 16-3025
  • 31-4511
  • 46-6062
  • 61-7501
  • 76-9004
Elche
  • 0-1503
  • 16-3032
  • 31-4504
  • 46-6010
  • 61-7542
  • 76-9063

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

All LaLiga results
2:1Racing Santander–EspanyolOur pick:BTTS1.57prediction won11 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 2.30X 3.632 2.981:2Valencia–VillarrealOur pick:22.11prediction won11 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 1 more in the same direction1 3.46X 3.592 2.091:0Atlético Madrid–Deportivo La CoruñaOur pick:H1 (−1.5)1.69prediction lost16 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.29X 5.882 10.48