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data updated 27.10 08:07

FINISHED

Auxerre vs Le Mans 1:1: result and odds

Auxerre vs Le Mans finished 1:1; before kick-off the odds were 3.62 on a draw (having opened at 3.54), 2.11 on an Auxerre win and 3.37 on a Le Mans win. The AI models' pick was both teams to score at 1.61, and it won.

published · updated UTC

Auxerre
Le Mans

AI models' pick: Both teams to score

1.61

The market prices this option at 58%

AI models' pick · 11 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 5 chose others

Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results

won+0.61 unitsclosing odds1.58CLV+2%
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
closing odds
The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
CLV
How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:112%odds 6.33 — this score came in

2:1 9%1:2 7%1:0 7%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 4 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 25.10 15:19

result12.11−0.04X3.62+0.0823.37+0.10
total 2.5O1.70−0.05U2.17+0.04
both to scoreyes1.58 — matches our bet−0.03no2.27+0.05
double chance1X1.32−0.04121.28−0.03X21.73+0.03
handicapH1 −13.04−0.08H2 +11.37+0.03

Over 7 days a Le Mans win drifted from 3.27 to 3.37 — fewer bets on the away side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.61 → 1.58 since we publishedView

Since we published, our bet (both teams score) has shortened from 1.61 to 1.58: the market now rates it as more likely.

Yes1.61 → 1.58our betNo2.22 → 2.27
1.601.802.002.2018 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 Oct25 OctWe published · 1.61No 2.27Yes 1.58

Price changes

Price changes in the Both to score market
WhenYes · our betNo
1.58−0.012.27+0.01
1.59+0.012.26
1.58−0.012.26
1.59+0.012.26−0.01
1.58+0.012.27−0.02
1.572.29+0.01
1.57+0.012.28−0.02
1.56−0.012.30+0.03
1.572.27−0.01
1.57−0.022.28+0.04
1.59−0.012.24+0.01
We published both teams score at 1.61
1.60−0.012.23+0.01
1.61opened2.22opened
99 snapshots · the prices changed 12 times

How the match went

half-time 0:0

match report · 25.10 18:46

A goalless first half turned on 48 minutes, when Lucas Buades scored for Le Mans from a Lucas Bretelle assist. Cameron Archer levelled for Auxerre on 56 minutes and it finished 1-1. The xG favoured the visitors, 1.43 to 0.91, even though Auxerre had 60% of the ball, 13 shots to 11 and five on target to two. Le Mans's goalkeeper made five saves to Auxerre's one, and Auxerre won seven corners to one. Archer had the highest rating of the match, 7.8. Our both-teams-to-score bet, backed at 1.61, landed. Before kick-off Auxerre to win was 2.11, the draw 3.62 and Le Mans 3.37, while the exact 1-1 score carried a price of 6.33. Two goals kept the total below the 2.5 line.

  1. 21'Le MansAlexandre Lauray YC
  2. 26'Le MansLucas Buades YC
  3. 44'AuxerreWilliam Still YC
  4. 48'Le MansLucas Buades (Lucas Bretelle)0:1
  5. 48'Le MansVAR check · Lucas Buades
  6. 53'Le Manson Noa Boissé, off Djibril Sidibé
  7. 56'AuxerreCameron Archer1:1
  8. 63'Le Manson Jean Vercruysse, off Alexandre Lauray
  9. 63'Le Manson Dame Gueye, off Habib Diallo
  10. 69'AuxerreKevin Danois YC
  11. 73'Auxerreon Rayan Mandengue, off Lamine Sy
  12. 86'Auxerreon Aristide Zossou, off Danny Namaso
  13. 86'Auxerreon Pierre Ekwah, off Kevin Danois
  14. 86'Le Manson Daouda Traore, off Antoine Rabillard
  15. 87'Le Manson Rayan Bamba, off Lucas Buades
  16. 90+8'Auxerreon Youssef Khoudda, off Cameron Archer
  17. 90+8'Auxerreon Arthur Piedfort, off Naouirou Ahamada
Match stats: Auxerre vs Le Mans
AuxerrestatLe Mans
0.91expected goals (xG)1.43
13shots11
5on target2
60%possession40%
7corners1
15fouls12
1saves5
1yellow cards2
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Auxerre

formation 3-4-2-1 · manager W. Still

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1P. Nardi6.2
  • 92C. Akpa6.3
  • 4A. Tuanzebe6.8
  • 15C. Makosso6.6
  • 22F. Oppegård6.1
  • 5K. Danois6.4
  • 8N. Ahamada6.7
  • 27L. Sy6.0
  • 10D. Namaso5.9
  • 21R. Faivre6.3
  • 9C. Archer — highest feed rating in the match7.8
substitutes
  • 77Aristide Zossouon 86'6.3
  • 23M. Diop
  • 20S. Diomandé
  • 34L. Dioubate
  • 17P. Ekwahon 86'6.5
  • 47Youssef Khoudda
  • 32R. Mandengueon 73'6.5
  • 35E. Legros
  • 46A. Piedforton 90+8'
Le Mans

formation 3-5-2 · manager P. Videira

starting XIfeed rating
  • 98N. Kocik6.6
  • 16Raúl Torrente5.9
  • 17S. Yohou6.3
  • 19D. Sidibé6.5
  • 22L. Calodat6.2
  • 8A. Lauray6.4
  • 29L. Bretelle7.7
  • 9A. Rabillard6.2
  • 18L. Buadés7.3
  • 13H. Diallo6.3
  • 14L. Mafouta6.5
substitutes
  • 26R. Bambaon 87'6.0
  • 15N. Boisséon 53'6.9
  • 7B. Brahimi
  • 25D. Guèyeon 63'6.6
  • 20W. Harhouz
  • 1E. Hatfout
  • 23D. Traoréon 86'6.7
  • 10J. Vercruysseon 63'7.0
  • 36Lenny Videira

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on both teams to score — the bet won. 3 more bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet lost. The other 2 chose a bet each: an Auxerre handicap and an Auxerre win.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:55 UTC

Le Mans have not kept a clean sheet in any of their three away games this season, and they have found the net every time: 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded per match, a 3.7 goal average. Auxerre are running at a similar rhythm at home, with 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded, both teams on the scoresheet in two of three matches and over 2.5 goals in two thirds of them. Across the season Auxerre have scored eight and conceded nine, Le Mans have scored six and conceded 10, and between them they have just one clean sheet. The market rates goals at both ends at 58%, so it is more likely than not.

Where we could be wrong

The head-to-heads are the warning sign. In Ligue 2 Le Mans twice left Auxerre without a goal of their own, losing 0-1 in January 2020 and 0-2 in August 2019. Heavy rain and a 16 km/h wind also point towards a scrappy game full of crosses rather than an open exchange of attacks. Even so, our pick is both teams to score at 1.61.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first · as of 25.10
Auxerre
Recent matches: Auxerre
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18.10Le HavreA3:1xG 2.8–1.5W
11.10RennesA1:4xG 1.8–2.6L
02.10Clermont Footclub friendlyH4:3W
20.09BrestH2:1xG 1.0–0.3W
12.09NiceH1:0W
04.09LyonA1:3L
Le Mans
Recent matches: Le Mans
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
16.10ToulouseH0:3xG 1.0–1.8L
10.10Paris Saint-GermainA1:3xG 1.4–4.3L
02.10Guingampclub friendlyA1:2L
19.09LorientH2:1xG 0.9–1.0W
13.09LensH2:2xG 2.6–1.6D
05.09NiceA1:1xG 1.3–1.1D

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstAuxerreLe MansLigue 1
goals1.6 / 2.41.4 / 2.11.5
xG1.6 / 2.11.5 / 2.21.6
shots12.1 / 14.910.6 / 16.613.7
shots on target5.1 / 6.34.1 / 5.44.8
corners5.6 / 7.62.7 / 5.94.7
fouls15.1 / 10.114.9 / 9.912.1
yellow cards1.4 / 1.72.4 / 1.91.7
matches over 2.586%86%
both scored86%86%
clean sheets14%0%
failed to score0%14%
home / away
goals1.3 / 1.31.3 / 2.3
average total2.73.7
matches over 2.567%67%
both scored67%100%
  • Auxerre shoot less often than the league average: 12.1 shots vs 13.7
  • Le Mans shoot less often than the league average: 10.6 shots vs 13.7
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Auxerre, away games only for Le Mans

Head to head

last 5

3–1–1Auxerre wins · draws · Le Mans wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Auxerre vs Le Mans3:201.08.20club friendly
Le Mans vs Auxerre0:110.01.20Ligue 2
Auxerre vs Le Mans2:002.08.19Ligue 2
Auxerre vs Le Mans1:125.01.13Ligue 2
Le Mans vs Auxerre3:120.08.12Ligue 2
  • both scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 5

League table

League standings: Ligue 1
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
11Toulouse72-3-212–119LDWDW
12Auxerre73-0-411–179LWWLW
13Nice62-2-25–78LDLWW
15Angers72-1-49–157LDWLL
16Le Mans71-3-310–156DDWLL
17Troyes71-1-55–164LLLLL

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10

Goals by minute

league season
Auxerre
  • 0-1503
  • 16-3012
  • 31-4531
  • 46-6014
  • 61-7543
  • 76-9016
Le Mans
  • 0-1521
  • 16-3012
  • 31-4533
  • 46-6043
  • 61-7503
  • 76-9013

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

All Ligue 1 results
0:0Toulouse–TroyesOur pick:11.65prediction lost16 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.52X 4.472 6.114:3Marseille–Le HavreOur pick:11.56prediction won7 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.48X 4.882 6.083:0Rennes–StrasbourgOur pick:O 2.51.42prediction won11 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.78X 4.252 4.02