FINISHED
Rennes vs Strasbourg 3:0: result and odds
Rennes vs Strasbourg finished 3:0; before kick-off the odds were 1.78 on a Rennes win (having opened at 1.71), 4.02 on a Strasbourg win and 4.25 on a draw. The AI models' pick was over 2.5 goals at 1.42, and it won.
- Referee: Ruddy Buquet
- Ligue 1, matchday 8 of 34
- +15°, clear
- Roazhon Park, Rennes
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Over 2.5 goals
1.42The market prices this option at 66%
AI models' pick · 11 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 5 chose others
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
likely score
2:1 9%2:0 7%3:1 6%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 4 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 7 days a Strasbourg win shortened from 4.24 to 4.02 — money is coming in on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementStrasbourg 4.24 → 4.02 over 7 days · 99 snapshotsView
The biggest move is a Rennes win: from 1.71 to 1.78 — 1.4 pp of implied chance, more than any other outcome.
Price changes
| When | Rennes | Draw | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.78−0.01 | 4.25+0.01 | 4.02+0.03 | |
| 1.79−0.02 | 4.24+0.03 | 3.99+0.04 | |
| 1.81+0.01 | 4.21+0.01 | 3.95+0.03 | |
| 1.80 | 4.20+0.01 | 3.92+0.01 | |
| 1.80+0.01 | 4.19−0.01 | 3.91−0.03 | |
| 1.79+0.01 | 4.20−0.04 | 3.94−0.02 | |
| 1.78 | 4.24−0.01 | 3.96+0.01 | |
| 1.78 | 4.25 | 3.95−0.01 | |
| 1.78+0.02 | 4.25−0.02 | 3.96−0.10 | |
| 1.76 | 4.27+0.01 | 4.06+0.01 | |
| 1.76+0.01 | 4.26−0.02 | 4.05−0.02 | |
| 1.75 | 4.28+0.05 | 4.07+0.04 | |
| 1.75+0.01 | 4.23−0.02 | 4.03−0.12 | |
| 1.74 | 4.25+0.03 | 4.15+0.05 | |
| 1.74+0.01 | 4.22+0.03 | 4.10+0.04 | |
| 1.73−0.01 | 4.19−0.07 | 4.06−0.03 | |
| 1.74+0.04 | 4.26−0.02 | 4.09−0.13 | |
| 1.70−0.01 | 4.28−0.03 | 4.22−0.02 | |
| 1.71opened | 4.31opened | 4.24opened |
How the match went
Sebastian Szymański scored twice as Rennes won 3-0 at home. Boulaye Dia put them ahead on 34 minutes, Szymański made it 2-0 on 41, and his second came on 61 minutes from a Mousa Al-Tamari assist. Strasbourg had 53% of the ball against 47% and 12 shots to 15, yet the expected goals favoured Rennes, 1.67 to 0.93. Strasbourg also took three yellow cards to Rennes' one. The over 2.5 goals bet, backed at 1.42, landed. Before kick-off the market rated Rennes 1.78 favourites, and the 3.5 goal line finished under. An exact 3-0 was on offer at 13.88, while the no in both teams to score paid 2.67 and Strasbourg did not get on the scoresheet.
- 33'Gessime Yassine YC
- 34'Boulaye Dia (Przemysław Frankowski)1:0
- 34'VAR check · Boulaye Dia
- 41'Sebastian Szymański (Mahamadou Nagida)2:0
- 45'on Yaya Dieme, off Dario Essugo
- 56'Boulaye Dia YC
- 61'Sebastian Szymański (Mousa Al-Tamari)3:0
- 64'on Adrien Thomasson, off Mousa Al-Tamari
- 64'on Eliezer Mayenda, off Boulaye Dia
- 65'Giovanni Reyna YC
- 70'on Jacobo Ortega, off Conrad Harder
- 70'on Samir El-Mourabet, off Diogo Sousa
- 70'on Martial Godo, off Gessime Yassine
- 71'on Quentin Merlin, off Mahamadou Nagida
- 78'on Djaoui Cissé, off Mahdi Camara
- 78'on Ludovic Blas, off Sebastian Szymański
- 84'on Omari Kellyman, off Giovanni Reyna
- 87'Pape Demba Diop YC
| Rennes | stat | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| 1.67 | expected goals (xG) | 0.93 |
| 15 | shots | 12 |
| 5 | on target | 4 |
| 47% | possession | 53% |
| 2 | corners | 4 |
| 10 | fouls | 17 |
| 3 | saves | 2 |
| 1 | yellow cards | 3 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Rennes- 30B. Samba7.2
- 18M. Nagida6.3
- 24A. Rouault7.6
- 4C. Cresswell7.0
- 48A. Ait Boudlal7.1
- 95P. Frankowski7.1
- 45M. Camara6.7
- 21V. Rongier7.2
- 17S. Szymański — highest feed rating in the match8.9
- 11Mousa Tamari6.6
- 22B. Dia7.7
- 60Kilian Belazzoug
- 26Q. Merlinon 71'6.7
- 5Gonçalo Oliveira
- 14B. Reynolds
- 28A. Thomassonon 64'6.5
- 10L. Blason 78'6.9
- 6D. Cisséon 78'6.6
- 90I. Soumaré
- 12Eliezer Mayendaon 64'6.5
Strasbourg- 1F. Jörgensen5.3
- 36Oso5.7
- 31Abdoul Karim Coulibaly6.6
- 4J. Mitchell6.0
- 16G. Antwi6.2
- 14Dário Essugo5.7
- 21P. Diop6.4
- 10G. Reyna6.5
- 23Diogo Sousa5.2
- 80Gessime Yassine5.4
- 40C. Harder6.3
- 12M. Piekutowski
- 43Y. Becker
- 24L. Høgsberg
- 29S. El Mourabeton 70'6.0
- 28Tyrese Noubissie
- 20M. Godoon 70'6.4
- 26O. Kellymanon 84'5.8
- 30J. Ortegaon 70'6.3
- 35Yaya Dieme
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet won. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: over 3.5 goals. 3 more bet on a Rennes win — the bet won. The other 2 chose a bet each: both teams to score and a Rennes handicap.
- 10 of 16O 2.5our betodds 1.42ClaudeDeepSeek
GrokKimiQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMistral
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultrawon - 1 of 16O 3.5same directionodds 2.13ChatGPTlost
- 3 of 161odds 1.71
Gemini
SonarNemotron Superwon - 1 of 16BTTSodds 1.46MiniMaxlost
- 1 of 16H1 (−1.5)odds 2.73Xiaomi MiMowon
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:55 UTC
Every one of Strasbourg's four away matches this season has gone over 2.5 goals, they ship 2.5 per game on the road and have yet to keep a clean sheet away from home. Rennes are scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.3 in front of their own crowd, three of their four home games have produced three or more goals, and both teams have scored in 75% of them. The market rates over 2.5 goals at around 66%, and the recent meetings back that up: the game at Rennes a year ago finished 4-1, while in April this year Strasbourg lost 0-3 at home. Our pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.42.
Where we could be wrong
The side most likely to spoil it is Rennes themselves, who have already kept one home clean sheet, and Strasbourg have drawn a blank in a quarter of their away trips and know how to drop deep once the scoreline is against them. The hosts' fixture list adds to the doubt, with the Europa League in the mix: after a European week the tempo in the first half could be noticeably calmer.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Rennes| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10 | JuventusEuropa League | A | 2:2 | D |
| 18.10 | Paris | A | 3:4xG 3.1–3.7 | L |
| 15.10 | OFI CreteEuropa League | H | 2:1xG 1.5–0.1 | W |
| 11.10 | Auxerre | H | 4:1xG 2.6–1.8 | W |
| 02.10 | Lavalclub friendly | A | 0:1 | L |
| 19.09 | Lyon | A | 0:4xG 1.4–3.1 | L |
Strasbourg| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Paris Saint-Germain | H | 1:3xG 1.6–2.8 | L |
| 11.10 | Nice | A | 1:2xG 0.6–1.3 | L |
| 19.09 | Paris | A | 1:2xG 0.2–1.1 | L |
| 12.09 | Monaco | H | 1:1xG 1.0–1.1 | D |
| 06.09 | Troyes | A | 6:2xG 3.0–2.9 | W |
| 29.08 | Lens | H | 2:1xG 1.8–2.9 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ligue 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 2.1 / 2 | 1.7 / 2.1 | 1.5 |
| xG | 2 / 2.4 | 1.2 / 2 | 1.6 |
| shots | 16.3 / 15.6 | 12.3 / 16.6 | 13.7 |
| shots on target | 6.3 / 5.9 | 5 / 6.3 | 4.8 |
| corners | 5.9 / 6.3 | 2.1 / 5.4 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 13.4 / 11.6 | 11.3 / 8.4 | 12.1 |
| yellow cards | 2.4 / 2.3 | 1.6 / 1.3 | 1.7 |
| matches over 2.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| both scored | 71% | 86% | |
| clean sheets | 14% | 0% | |
| failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 2.5 / 1.3 | 2 / 2.5 | |
| average total | 3.8 | 4.5 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| both scored | 75% | 75% | |
- Rennes score more than the league average: 2.1 vs 1.5
- Strasbourg score more than the league average: 1.7 vs 1.5
- Strasbourg: 3 league defeats in a row
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Rennes, away games only for Strasbourg
Head to head
6–1–3Rennes wins · draws · Strasbourg wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg vs Rennes | 0:3 | 19.04.26 | |
| Rennes vs Strasbourg | 4:1 | 02.11.25 | |
| Rennes vs Strasbourg | 1:0 | 02.02.25 | |
| Strasbourg vs Rennes | 3:1 | 25.08.24 | |
| Strasbourg vs Rennes | 2:0 | 31.03.24 | |
| Rennes vs Strasbourg | 1:1 | 29.10.23 | |
| Rennes vs Strasbourg | 3:0 | 01.02.23 | |
| Strasbourg vs Rennes | 1:3 | 01.10.22 | |
| Strasbourg vs Rennes | 2:1 | 20.04.22 | |
| Rennes vs Strasbourg | 1:0 | 24.10.21 |
- both scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 6 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Monaco | 7 | 4-2-1 | 10–6 | 14 | WDWDL |
| 5 | Rennes | 7 | 4-1-2 | 15–14 | 13 | WWLWL |
| 6 | Lyon | 6 | 3-2-1 | 11–4 | 11 | DWDWL |
| 13 | Nice | 6 | 2-2-2 | 5–7 | 8 | LDLWW |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2-1-4 | 12–15 | 7 | WDLLL |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | 2-1-4 | 9–15 | 7 | LDWLL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10
Goals by minute
- 0-1541
- 16-3014
- 31-4511
- 46-6022
- 61-7501
- 76-90+43
- 0-1501
- 16-3011
- 31-4541
- 46-6023
- 61-7502
- 76-9048
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
