FINISHED
Marseille vs Le Havre 4:3: result and odds
Marseille vs Le Havre finished 4:3; before kick-off the odds were 1.48 on a Marseille win (having opened at 1.61), 6.08 on a Le Havre win and 4.88 on a draw. The AI models' pick was Marseille to win at 1.56, and it won.
- Referee: Clément Turpin
- Ligue 1, matchday 8 of 34
- +19°, overcast
- Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Marseille to win
1.56The market prices this option at 60%
AI models' pick · 7 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 9 chose others
Under half back the betOur football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
2:1 9%2:0 8%1:0 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 4 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 7 days a Marseille win shortened from 1.61 to 1.48 — money is coming in on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Marseille: 1.56 → 1.48 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (a Marseille win) has shortened from 1.56 to 1.48: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Marseille · our bet | Draw | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.48−0.01 | 4.88+0.04 | 6.08+0.16 | |
| 1.49−0.03 | 4.84+0.05 | 5.92+0.32 | |
| 1.52−0.01 | 4.79+0.07 | 5.60+0.06 | |
| 1.53−0.02 | 4.72+0.09 | 5.54+0.21 | |
| 1.55 | 4.63+0.03 | 5.33+0.04 | |
| 1.55 | 4.60+0.04 | 5.29 | |
| 1.55−0.01 | 4.56+0.02 | 5.29+0.07 | |
| 1.56 | 4.54 | 5.22+0.02 | |
| 1.56 | 4.54+0.01 | 5.20+0.07 | |
| 1.56 | 4.53+0.02 | 5.13+0.03 | |
| 1.56−0.01 | 4.51+0.03 | 5.10−0.15 | |
| 1.57 | 4.48+0.06 | 5.25+0.05 | |
| 1.57+0.01 | 4.42+0.08 | 5.20+0.04 | |
| 1.56 | 4.34−0.10 | 5.16−0.15 | |
| We published a Marseille win at 1.56 | |||
| 1.56−0.03 | 4.44+0.09 | 5.31+0.20 | |
| 1.59−0.02 | 4.35−0.03 | 5.11+0.05 | |
| 1.61opened | 4.38opened | 5.06opened | |
How the match went
Marseille were 4-0 up after 55 minutes and still had to survive a late scare to win 4-3. CJ Egan-Riley scored on five minutes, Timothy Weah made it 2-0 before the break, and Igor Paixão and Himad Abdelli struck early in the second half. Then Le Havre came back. Josh Maja scored a penalty on 77 minutes, Lamine N'Diaye added another on 86, and Maja made it 4-3 on 89 from Kaito Mizuta's pass. In added time a penalty for Le Havre was overturned after a VAR check. The numbers favoured the visitors: 3.10 xG against 1.63, and 21 shots to 11. Our Marseille win bet, priced 1.56, landed. Before kick-off the odds on a home win were 1.48, and over 2.5 goals paid 1.49 with seven scored.
- 5'CJ Egan-Riley (Emerson Palmieri)1:0
- 33'Timothy Weah2:0
- 50'Igor Paixão (Amine Gouiri)3:0
- 55'Himad Abdelli4:0
- 61'on Josh Maja, off Rassoul Ndiaye
- 61'on Sota Nakamura, off Mbwana Ally Samatta
- 77'on Daren Mosengo, off Amir Richardson
- 77'on Lamine N'Diaye, off Enzo Koffi
- 77'Josh Maja penalty4:1
- 78'on Keyliane Abdallah, off Amine Harit
- 78'on Neal Maupay, off Amine Gouiri
- 83'Simon Ebonog YC
- 84'on Nouhoum Kamissoko, off Himad Abdelli
- 84'on Angel Gomes, off Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
- 84'on Kaito Mizuta, off Rayan Fofana
- 86'Lamine N'Diaye4:2
- 89'Josh Maja (Kaito Mizuta)4:3
- 90+2'on Ulisses Garcia, off Igor Paixão
- 90+6'penalty overturned (VAR) · Kaito Mizuta
- 90+10'Ayumu Seko YC
- 90+11'Lamine N'Diaye YC
- 90+12'Neal Maupay YC
| Marseille | stat | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| 1.63 | expected goals (xG) | 3.10 |
| 11 | shots | 21 |
| 5 | on target | 7 |
| 53% | possession | 47% |
| 4 | corners | 3 |
| 15 | fouls | 11 |
| 3 | saves | 1 |
| 1 | yellow cards | 3 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Marseille- 8H. Abdelli8.1
- 1J. de Lange6.3
- 14Igor Paixão8.2
- 6T. Nnadi6.5
- 23P. Højbjerg6.3
- 77A. Harit6.1
- 9A. Gouiri7.0
- 33Emerson6.9
- 4C. Egan-Riley7.2
- 21N. Aguerd7.1
- 22T. Weah7.6
- 48K. Abdallahon 78'6.5
- 74K. Bezahaf
- 25U. Garciaon 90+2'
- 7A. Gomeson 84'6.0
- 42Nouhoum Kamissoko
- 19G. Kondogbia
- 11N. Maupayon 78'6.2
- 18B. Meité
- 92T. Vermot
Le Havre- 93G. Gallon5.9
- 26S. Ebonog6.4
- 38R. Fofana6.5
- 6J. Mwanga6.3
- 14R. Ndiaye6.0
- 20D. Ouziad5.3
- 7A. Richardson5.7
- 25M. Samatta6.3
- 15A. Seko6.0
- 27E. Koffi Vinette5.7
- 5A. Touba6.1
- 33Hakim Dongopandji
- 9J. Maja — highest feed rating in the matchon 61'8.2
- 17K. Mizutaon 84'6.3
- 78D. Mosengoon 77'5.9
- 97Mouhamed N'Diaye
- 30S. Nakamuraon 61'6.8
- 23V. Sasso
- 24G. Zohouri
- 16A. Bodart
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on a Marseille win — the bet won. 4 more chose close bets in the same direction: Marseille −1.5 and Marseille −1. 6 more bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet won. The other 3 bet on both teams to score — the bet won.
- 3 of 161our betodds 1.56
Gemini
SonarNemotron Superwon - 3 of 16H1 (−1.5)same directionodds 2.67DeepSeekDeepSeek FlashMistrallost
- 1 of 16H1 (−1)same directionodds 2.06Xiaomi MiMovoid
- 6 of 16O 2.5odds 1.62ChatGPT
GrokKimiQwen
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultrawon - 3 of 16BTTSodds 1.64Claude
GLMMiniMaxwon
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 24.10 at 11:08 UTC
Le Havre sit 18th with two points after seven rounds. Across their last five matches they have scored four goals, conceded nine and picked up a single point. On the road they have yet to keep a clean sheet, and they arrive without six players, among them a goalkeeper and three defenders. All seven previous meetings have gone to Marseille: in October 2025 at the Vélodrome it finished 6-2, and in May Marseille added a 1-0 win in Le Havre. At home they average 2.3 goals a game, and the market gives them six chances in ten, which is why we're backing Marseille to win at 1.56.
Where we could be wrong
There is a case against. Marseille have won just one of their three home matches this season and are conceding 1.7 a game, and after a European week the line-up could change noticeably. Le Havre have scored in two of their three away trips, and an early reply would quickly make the evening a nervy one.
- 7 of 16 AI models back this bet; more than half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Marseille- D. CorneliusDF · 2 matches in 2025/26hip injuryout
- A. Koum MbondoDFillnessdoubtful
Le Havre- E. JelertDF · 11 matches in 2025/26thigh injuryout
- F. MambimbiFW · 17 matches in 2025/26achilles tendon injuryout
- L. Mpasi-NzauGK · 4 matches in 2025/26achilles tendon injuryout
- T. PembeleDF · 14 matches in 2025/26muscle injuryout
- A. ToureMF · 11 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout
- S. ZagadouDF · 8 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout
managers: Bruno Genesio · D. Digard · main formations this season: 4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1
Recent matches
Marseille| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10 | Sturm GrazEuropa League | A | 0:1xG 0.8–1.9 | L |
| 18.10 | Angers | A | 5:2xG 2.8–2.1 | W |
| 15.10 | OlympiacosEuropa League | H | 0:1xG 0.9–0.6 | L |
| 11.10 | Troyes | A | 2:0xG 1.3–1.1 | W |
| 20.09 | Paris Saint-Germain | H | 1:2xG 1.8–4.3 | L |
| 17.09 | BeşiktaşEuropa League | A | 1:4 | L |
Le Havre| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10 | Auxerre | H | 1:3xG 1.5–2.8 | L |
| 10.10 | Lille | A | 0:1xG 1.3–1.4 | L |
| 02.10 | Boulogneclub friendly | H | 6:1 | W |
| 19.09 | Toulouse | A | 2:3xG 2.3–1.9 | L |
| 12.09 | Angers | H | 0:0 | D |
| 05.09 | Brest | H | 1:2xG 2.0–2.4 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ligue 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 2 / 1.4 | 0.7 / 1.6 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.7 / 2.2 | 1.4 / 1.7 | 1.6 |
| shots | 13.1 / 15.9 | 15.7 / 13 | 13.7 |
| shots on target | 4.9 / 5.3 | 4.7 / 4.9 | 4.8 |
| corners | 4.4 / 4.4 | 5.7 / 4.9 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 10.7 / 10.9 | 14.6 / 15.1 | 12.1 |
| yellow cards | 1.3 / 2.1 | 1.6 / 1.6 | 1.7 |
| matches over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | |
| both scored | 43% | 57% | |
| clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| failed to score | 29% | 43% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 2.3 / 1.7 | 1 / 1.7 | |
| average total | 4 | 2.7 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| both scored | 67% | 67% | |
- Marseille score more than the league average: 2 vs 1.5
- Le Havre score less than the league average: 0.7 vs 1.5
- Le Havre: 3 league defeats in a row
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Marseille, away games only for Le Havre
Head to head
7–0–0Marseille wins · draws · Le Havre wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre vs Marseille | 0:1 | 10.05.26 | |
| Marseille vs Le Havre | 6:2 | 18.10.25 | |
| Le Havre vs Marseille | 1:3 | 10.05.25 | |
| Marseille vs Le Havre | 5:1 | 05.01.25 | |
| Le Havre vs Marseille | 1:2 | 19.05.24 | |
| Marseille vs Le Havre | 3:0 | 08.10.23 | |
| Marseille vs Le Havre | 3:1 | 22.01.12 | Coupe de France |
- both scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 6 of 7
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lens | 7 | 3-1-3 | 14–11 | 10 | LDLWW |
| 9 | Marseille | 7 | 3-0-4 | 14–10 | 9 | LLLWW |
| 10 | Brest | 7 | 2-3-2 | 13–10 | 9 | WLLWD |
| 17 | Troyes | 7 | 1-1-5 | 5–16 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0-2-5 | 5–11 | 2 | LDLLL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 23.10
Goals by minute
- 0-1513
- 16-3001
- 31-4520
- 46-6042
- 61-7523
- 76-9051
- 0-1503
- 16-3000
- 31-4501
- 46-6003
- 61-7531
- 76-9023
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
