FINISHED
Toulouse vs Troyes 0:0: result and odds
Toulouse vs Troyes finished 0:0; before kick-off the odds were 4.47 on a draw (having opened at 4.08), 1.52 on a Toulouse win and 6.11 on a Troyes win. The AI models' pick was Toulouse to win at 1.65, and it lost.
- Referee: Geoffrey Kubler
- Ligue 1, matchday 8 of 34
- +18°, overcast, wind 18 km/h
- Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Toulouse to win
1.65The market prices this option at 58%
AI models' pick · 16 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
2:1 10%2:0 9%1:0 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 7 days a Toulouse win shortened from 1.64 to 1.52 — money is coming in on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Toulouse: 1.65 → 1.52 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (a Toulouse win) has shortened from 1.65 to 1.52: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Toulouse · our bet | Draw | Troyes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.52 | 4.47 | 6.11+0.01 | |
| 1.52−0.01 | 4.47+0.02 | 6.10+0.08 | |
| 1.53 | 4.45+0.04 | 6.02+0.04 | |
| 1.53−0.08 | 4.41+0.21 | 5.98+0.72 | |
| 1.61−0.01 | 4.20−0.01 | 5.26+0.11 | |
| 1.62 | 4.21+0.01 | 5.15−0.01 | |
| 1.62+0.01 | 4.20 | 5.16−0.06 | |
| 1.61 | 4.20+0.02 | 5.22+0.02 | |
| 1.61+0.01 | 4.18+0.04 | 5.20 | |
| 1.60 | 4.14+0.01 | 5.20+0.06 | |
| 1.60−0.05 | 4.13+0.04 | 5.14+0.13 | |
| 1.65+0.01 | 4.09+0.02 | 5.01+0.04 | |
| 1.64 | 4.07−0.02 | 4.97+0.09 | |
| 1.64−0.01 | 4.09−0.01 | 4.88−0.06 | |
| We published a Toulouse win at 1.65 | |||
| 1.65+0.01 | 4.10+0.02 | 4.94 | |
| 1.64opened | 4.08opened | 4.94opened | |
How the match went
Toulouse had 63% of the ball, the better chances and still could not score: 0-0 at the break and the same at full time. They put three shots on target to none for Troyes, who made three saves, and the expected goals read 0.70 to 0.38. Toulouse also won four corners to two. The home side collected six yellow cards to two, the last of them for Mark McKenzie in stoppage time. The backing of Toulouse to win, at odds of 1.65, went down. The market had them as favourites, 1.52 before kick-off, with Troyes rated longest at 6.11. The under landed on 2.5 goals, and the no in both teams to score paid 2.14. A goalless draw was on offer at 14.80.
- 25'Rafik Messali YC
- 25'Aron Dønnum YC
- 36'Junior Diaz YC
- 39'Cristian Casseres YC
- 40'Timothee Nkada YC
- 58'on Alexis Vossah, off Rafik Messali
- 67'on Ilyas Azizi, off Aron Dønnum
- 73'on Jérémy Le Douaron, off Renaud Ripart
- 73'on Kandet Diawara, off Timothee Nkada
- 83'Niko Sigur YC
- 84'on Santiago Hidalgo, off Jacen Russell-Rowe
- 84'on Niklas Schmidt, off Thomas Jorgensen
- 88'Jens Berthel Askou YC
- 89'Alexis Vossah YC
- 90'on Iron Gomis, off Mouhamed Diop
- 90+3'Mark McKenzie YC
| Toulouse | stat | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| 0.70 | expected goals (xG) | 0.38 |
| 7 | shots | 8 |
| 3 | on target | 0 |
| 63% | possession | 37% |
| 4 | corners | 2 |
| 19 | fouls | 14 |
| 0 | saves | 3 |
| 6 | yellow cards | 2 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Toulouse- 16G. Restes6.8
- 12C. Tapé6.6
- 2R. Nicolaisen7.1
- 3M. McKenzie6.7
- 22R. Messali6.2
- 8T. Jørgensen6.9
- 14N. Sigur6.7
- 23C. Cásseres6.8
- 15A. Dønnum6.5
- 20C. Tengstedt6.1
- 13J. Russell-Rowe6.3
- 6A. Vossahon 58'6.4
- 1T. Collin
- 37Y. Azizion 67'6.4
- 18M. Amougou
- 94I. Diallo
- 9S. Hidalgoon 84'6.6
- 5S. Koumbassa
- 31N. Schmidton 84'6.5
- 7Julián Vignolo
Troyes- 40H. Konaté6.3
- 5P. Gozzi6.6
- 4M. Diaz6.8
- 6A. Monfray — highest feed rating in the match7.4
- 2L. Maronnier7.0
- 8M. Diop6.7
- 29D. Karim6.6
- 17A. Mille6.9
- 23T. Nkada6.3
- 20R. Ripart6.4
- 10M. Ifnaoui6.4
- 33P. Beach
- 7K. Diawaraon 73'6.5
- 11I. Gomison 90'
- 22H. Picard
- 26A. Phliponeau
- 9J. Le Douaronon 73'6.9
- 36I. Soukouna
- 31Noah Donkor
- 34Lassana Simakha
AI prediction and analysis
The vote split evenly: 6 each on a Toulouse win (lost) and on Toulouse −1 (lost). The other 4 bet on Toulouse −1.5 — the bet lost.
- 6 of 161our betodds 1.64ChatGPTClaude
Gemini
GrokXiaomi MiMoNemotron Superlost - 6 of 16H1 (−1)same directionodds 2.05QwenDeepSeek Flash
GLM
Sonar
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultralost - 4 of 16H1 (−1.5)same directionodds 2.64DeepSeekKimiMiniMaxMistrallost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:55 UTC
Troyes have never beaten Toulouse in ten previous meetings: six wins for the hosts and four draws. In the last two, Toulouse won 4-1 in February 2023 and 3-0 in August 2022. Troyes turn up on five straight defeats, with three goals scored and 15 conceded, and on the road they manage 0.7 scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Toulouse sit 10th on nine points, the visitors 17th on four, and the shots-on-target count leans the same way: 5.6 to 3.6.
Where we could be wrong
Our pick is a Toulouse win at 1.65, and the market's 58% for that outcome looks fair given those numbers. The one worry is the home record of Toulouse themselves: one win from three matches in front of their own crowd, an average of one goal scored, and twice they failed to score at all. If the attack stalls again, Troyes are capable of nicking a draw.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Toulouse| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.10 | Le Mans | A | 3:0xG 1.8–1.0 | W |
| 10.10 | Monaco | A | 2:2xG 1.5–1.3 | D |
| 03.10 | PAUclub friendly | H | 2:3 | L |
| 19.09 | Le Havre | H | 3:2xG 1.9–2.3 | W |
| 12.09 | Lorient | A | 2:2 | D |
| 03.09 | Lille | H | 0:1 | L |
Troyes| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Lens | H | 1:3xG 1.3–1.4 | L |
| 11.10 | Marseille | H | 0:2xG 1.1–1.3 | L |
| 02.10 | Dijonclub friendly | A | 2:2 | D |
| 19.09 | Angers | A | 0:2xG 1.0–2.3 | L |
| 13.09 | Lille | A | 0:2xG 0.4–1.6 | L |
| 06.09 | Strasbourg | H | 2:6xG 2.9–3.0 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ligue 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.7 / 1.6 | 0.7 / 2.3 | 1.5 |
| xG | 2 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1.6 |
| shots | 13.6 / 14.6 | 14.4 / 12.4 | 13.7 |
| shots on target | 4.6 / 4.4 | 3.1 / 4.7 | 4.8 |
| corners | 4.1 / 4.4 | 7.1 / 2.1 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 15.6 / 13 | 12.4 / 12.9 | 12.1 |
| yellow cards | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.3 | 1.7 |
| matches over 2.5 | 71% | 43% | |
| both scored | 57% | 43% | |
| clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| failed to score | 29% | 57% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1 / 1.7 | 0.7 / 1.7 | |
| average total | 2.7 | 2.3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| both scored | 33% | 33% | |
- Toulouse score more than the league average: 1.7 vs 1.5
- Troyes score less than the league average: 0.7 vs 1.5
- Troyes: 5 league defeats in a row
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Toulouse, away games only for Troyes
Head to head
6–4–0Toulouse wins · draws · Troyes wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse vs Troyes | 4:1 | 01.02.23 | |
| Troyes vs Toulouse | 0:3 | 14.08.22 | |
| Toulouse vs Troyes | 6:1 | 09.07.22 | club friendly |
| Troyes vs Toulouse | 1:1 | 06.02.21 | Ligue 2 |
| Toulouse vs Troyes | 0:0 | 03.10.20 | Ligue 2 |
| Toulouse vs Troyes | 1:0 | 27.01.18 | |
| Troyes vs Toulouse | 0:0 | 09.09.17 | |
| Toulouse vs Troyes | 1:0 | 07.05.16 | |
| Troyes vs Toulouse | 0:3 | 02.12.15 | |
| Toulouse vs Troyes | 2:2 | 16.02.13 |
- both scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 5 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Brest | 7 | 2-3-2 | 13–10 | 9 | WLLWD |
| 11 | Toulouse | 7 | 2-3-2 | 12–11 | 9 | LDWDW |
| 12 | Auxerre | 7 | 3-0-4 | 11–17 | 9 | LWWLW |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1-3-3 | 10–15 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 17 | Troyes | 7 | 1-1-5 | 5–16 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0-2-5 | 5–11 | 2 | LDLLL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10
Goals by minute
- 0-1510
- 16-3002
- 31-4503
- 46-6070
- 61-7523
- 76-9023
- 0-1520
- 16-3021
- 31-4513
- 46-6006
- 61-7500
- 76-9015
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
