FINISHED
Monaco vs Lille 1:1: result and odds
Monaco vs Lille finished 1:1; before kick-off the odds were 3.47 on a draw (having opened at 3.45), 1.98 on a Monaco win and 3.95 on a Lille win. The AI models' pick was under 2.5 goals at 2.15, and it won.
- Referee: François Letexier
- Ligue 1, matchday 8 of 34
- +17°, mostly clear
- Stade Louis-II, Monaco
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
2.15The market prices this option at 45%
AI models' pick · 9 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 7 chose others
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
2:1 9%1:0 7%2:0 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 4 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 7 days a Lille win drifted from 3.47 to 3.95 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Under 2.5: 2.15 → 2.02 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (under 2.5 goals) has shortened from 2.15 to 2.02: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 · our bet |
|---|---|---|
| 1.82+0.01 | 2.02 | |
| 1.81−0.01 | 2.02+0.01 | |
| 1.82+0.01 | 2.01 | |
| 1.81+0.08 | 2.01−0.11 | |
| 1.73−0.01 | 2.12 | |
| We published under 2.5 goals at 2.15 | ||
| 1.74+0.01 | 2.12 | |
| 1.73−0.01 | 2.12−0.03 | |
| 1.74opened | 2.15opened | |
How the match went
Ethan Mbappe put Lille ahead on 24 minutes, Soriba Diaoune providing the pass, and it was 0-1 at half-time. Monaco had 2.24 xG to 0.71 and 20 shots to four, yet needed until 74 minutes for Edan Diop to equalise from Jordan Teze's assist. Lille had been a man down since 66 minutes, when Nianzou Tanguy Kouassi was sent off. Monaco held 64% of the ball against 36%, and Lille made five saves to Monaco's one. Before kick-off the market had Monaco as favourites on 1.98, with the draw on 3.47 and Lille on 3.95. Our under bet, odds 2.15, landed with two goals in total. Mbappe still took the highest player rating of the match, 8.1.
- 15'on Mathys Detourbet, off Ansu Fati
- 24'Ethan Mbappe (Soriba Diaoune)0:1
- 32'Mamadou Coulibaly YC
- 34'Hákon Arnar Haraldsson YC
- 45'on Matthis Abline, off Mamadou Coulibaly
- 45'on Edan Diop, off Denis Zakaria
- 56'Mathys Detourbet YC
- 63'on Isaac Cossier, off Soriba Diaoune
- 66'Nianzou Tanguy Kouassi RC
- 66'Romain Perraud YC
- 69'on Maxima Goffi, off Ethan Mbappe
- 74'Edan Diop (Jordan Teze)1:1
- 80'on Maurits Kjaergaard, off Nabil Bentaleb
- 80'on Matah Yondjio, off Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
- 90+1'on Folarin Balogun, off Mathys Detourbet
- 90+1'Vanderson YC
- 90+2'Maxima Goffi YC
- 90+4'Berke Özer YC
| Monaco | stat | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| 2.24 | expected goals (xG) | 0.71 |
| 20 | shots | 4 |
| 6 | on target | 2 |
| 64% | possession | 36% |
| 6 | corners | 1 |
| 18 | fouls | 13 |
| 1 | saves | 5 |
| 3 | yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | red cards | 1 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Monaco- 1L. Hrádecký6.6
- 20Flávio Nazinho6.7
- 4J. Teze7.2
- 72Sadibou Sané6.8
- 2Vanderson7.6
- 6D. Zakaria6.9
- 8L. Camara7.1
- 31Ansu Fati6.3
- 10A. Golovin7.0
- 28M. Coulibaly6.2
- 29Paris Josua Brunner6.1
- 49I. Touré
- 7M. Detourbeton 15'6.3
- 9F. Balogunon 90+1'
- 11M. Ablineon 45'7.0
- 37E. Diopon 45'7.6
- 16P. Köhn
- 13C. Mawissa Elebi
- 18T. Minamino
- 22M. Salisu
Lille- 1B. Özer6.8
- 15R. Perraud6.2
- 4Alexsandro Ribeiro6.8
- 23T. Nianzou6.2
- 3N. Ngoy7.3
- 21B. André6.5
- 6N. Bentaleb6.7
- 17N. Mukau6.1
- 35S. Diaoune6.9
- 10H. Haraldsson6.4
- 8E. Mbappé — highest feed rating in the match8.1
- 7D. Bakwa
- 26I. Cossieron 63'6.7
- 12O. Gill
- 9O. Giroud
- 38M. Goffion 69'6.0
- 14M. Kjærgaardon 80'6.3
- 28G. Perrin
- 24C. Verdonk
- 33Matah Yondjio
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on under 2.5 goals — the bet won. 3 more bet on both teams to score — the bet won. The other 4 chose a bet each: a Lille handicap, double chance, a Monaco win and 'both to score — no'.
- 9 of 16U 2.5our betodds 2.15ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeek
Gemini
GrokKimiQwenDeepSeek FlashXiaomi MiMowon - 3 of 16BTTSodds 1.58MiniMaxMistralNemotron Superwon
- 1 of 16H2 (+1)odds 1.37Nemotron Ultrawon
- 1 of 16X2odds 1.73
Sonarwon - 1 of 161odds 2.12
Dots3-Notelost - 1 of 16BTTS noodds 2.26
GLMlost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:55 UTC
Monaco and Lille meet on 14 points apiece, and these two rarely open up against each other: only once in the last five meetings have more than two goals been scored, and the October 2024 game at Monaco finished 0-0. Lille are compact on their travels — 0.7 goals conceded on average, two clean sheets in three away games and only a third of those away matches producing three goals or more. Monaco have not scored in either of the last two meetings with Lille, losing 0-1 in May and 0-1 away in August 2025.
Where we could be wrong
At home, though, Monaco look a different side: two goals a game, with over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in two of their three matches. Lille also squeezed in a Champions League tie between league rounds, and if they decide to take the game to the hosts in the south, that defensive tightness could quickly turn into an exchange of attacks. Even so, we're backing under 2.5 goals at 2.15.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Monaco| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10 | FreiburgConference League | H | 3:0 | W |
| 18.10 | Lorient | A | 0:1xG 0.7–1.7 | L |
| 15.10 | CSKA SofiaConference League | A | 2:1xG 1.3–1.3 | W |
| 10.10 | Toulouse | H | 2:2xG 1.3–1.5 | D |
| 03.10 | Pisaclub friendly | H | 2:0 | W |
| 18.09 | Lens | H | 2:1xG 1.8–1.2 | W |
Lille| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.10 | GalatasarayChampions League | H | 2:4 | L |
| 17.10 | Brest | H | 1:1xG 2.3–0.8 | D |
| 13.10 | ArsenalChampions League | A | 0:3xG 0.3–1.7 | L |
| 10.10 | Le Havre | H | 1:0xG 1.4–1.3 | W |
| 02.10 | Zulte Waregemclub friendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 20.09 | Nice | A | 1:2xG 1.6–1.5 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ligue 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.4 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 0.7 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.1 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 1.6 | 1.6 |
| shots | 11.7 / 13.3 | 12.3 / 15 | 13.7 |
| shots on target | 4.4 / 4.1 | 5.4 / 3.6 | 4.8 |
| corners | 3.7 / 5.3 | 3.3 / 4.9 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 11.7 / 11.1 | 11.7 / 14.6 | 12.1 |
| yellow cards | 2.1 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 1.6 | 1.7 |
| matches over 2.5 | 43% | 29% | |
| both scored | 57% | 43% | |
| clean sheets | 29% | 57% | |
| failed to score | 14% | 0% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 2 / 1 | 1.3 / 0.7 | |
| average total | 3 | 2 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| both scored | 67% | 33% | |
- Monaco shoot less often than the league average: 11.7 shots vs 13.7
- Lille shoot less often than the league average: 12.3 shots vs 13.7
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Monaco, away games only for Lille
Head to head
2–3–5Monaco wins · draws · Lille wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco vs Lille | 0:1 | 10.05.26 | |
| Lille vs Monaco | 1:0 | 24.08.25 | |
| Lille vs Monaco | 2:1 | 22.02.25 | |
| Monaco vs Lille | 0:0 | 18.10.24 | |
| Monaco vs Lille | 1:0 | 24.04.24 | |
| Lille vs Monaco | 2:0 | 29.10.23 | |
| Monaco vs Lille | 0:0 | 14.05.23 | |
| Lille vs Monaco | 4:3 | 23.10.22 | |
| Lille vs Monaco | 1:2 | 06.05.22 | |
| Monaco vs Lille | 2:2 | 19.11.21 |
- both scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 4 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Paris | 7 | 4-2-1 | 12–7 | 14 | WDWLW |
| 3 | Lille | 7 | 4-2-1 | 10–5 | 14 | WWLWD |
| 4 | Monaco | 7 | 4-2-1 | 10–6 | 14 | WDWDL |
| 5 | Rennes | 7 | 4-1-2 | 15–14 | 13 | WWLWL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10
Goals by minute
- 0-1520
- 16-3010
- 31-4521
- 46-6033
- 61-7520
- 76-9001
- 0-1521
- 16-3030
- 31-4510
- 46-6000
- 61-7521
- 76-9032
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
