FINISHED
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United 0:2: result and odds
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United finished 0:2; before kick-off the odds were 2.38 on a Newcastle United win (having opened at 2.52), 2.87 on a Crystal Palace win and 3.60 on a draw. The AI models' pick was both teams to score at 1.51, and it lost.
- Referee: Paul Tierney · 3.5 yellow cards per match
- Premier League, matchday 8 of 38
- +13°, mostly clear, wind 34 km/h
- Selhurst Park, London
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.51The market prices this option at 62%
AI models' pick · Two directions drew level; the one priced closer to the line was taken
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
1:2 9%2:1 8%2:2 6%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 6 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 7 days a Crystal Palace win drifted from 2.65 to 2.87 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.51 → 1.44 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (both teams score) has shortened from 1.51 to 1.44: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.44 | 2.61−0.02 | |
| 1.44 | 2.63+0.01 | |
| 1.44 | 2.62−0.01 | |
| 1.44 | 2.63+0.02 | |
| 1.44−0.03 | 2.61+0.06 | |
| 1.47−0.01 | 2.55+0.04 | |
| 1.48−0.03 | 2.51+0.11 | |
| 1.51 | 2.40−0.03 | |
| 1.51 | 2.43+0.03 | |
| 18 Oct – 20 Oct · no snapshots for 36 h | ||
| We published both teams score at 1.51 | ||
| 1.51opened | 2.40opened | |
How the match went
Newcastle United won 2-0 at Crystal Palace after a goalless first half. William Osula broke the deadlock on 47 minutes, set up by Jacob Murphy, and Joe Willock had a goal chalked off by VAR on 53. Harvey Barnes made it 2-0 on 58, with Amar Dedić giving the assist. Crystal Palace had the better numbers, 1.78 xG against 1.03 and 17 shots to 10, yet only four of them were on target and Newcastle United's goalkeeper made four saves. Our both-teams-to-score bet at 1.51 went down. Before kick-off Newcastle United's win was on offer at 2.38 against 2.87 for Crystal Palace. The exact score of 0-2 carried a price of 13.54, and with two goals the 2.5 line finished under.
- 36'Nico González YC
- 45+1'Fabian Schär YC
- 47'William Osula (Jacob Murphy)0:1
- 53'goal disallowed (VAR) · Joe Willock
- 58'Harvey Barnes (Amar Dedić)0:2
- 62'on Eddie Nketiah, off Jean-Philippe Mateta
- 63'on Dario Osorio, off Dwight McNeil
- 75'Yeremy Pino YC
- 77'on Yoane Wissa, off William Osula
- 77'on Jacob Ramsey, off Joe Willock
- 77'on Anthony Elanga, off Harvey Barnes
- 78'Lewis Hall YC
- 79'Anan Khalaili YC
- 85'on Sean Steur, off Joelinton
- 90+3'Jaydee Canvot YC
- 90+5'on Malick Thiaw, off Amar Dedić
| Crystal Palace | stat | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| 1.78 | expected goals (xG) | 1.03 |
| 17 | shots | 10 |
| 4 | on target | 2 |
| 52% | possession | 48% |
| 7 | corners | 4 |
| 12 | fouls | 10 |
| 0 | saves | 4 |
| 3 | yellow cards | 3 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Crystal Palace- 44W. Benítez6.0
- 6J. Canvot6.2
- 5A. Disasi6.9
- 26C. Richards5.9
- 3T. Mitchell5.8
- 18D. Kamada6.3
- 20A. Wharton5.6
- 25A. Khalaili6.1
- 10Yeremy Pino5.9
- 11D. McNeil6.3
- 14J. Mateta6.4
- 24D. Osorioon 63'6.6
- 28C. Doucouré
- 19W. Hughes
- 30Óscar Mingueza
- 8J. Lerma
- 33B. Chilwell
- 31R. Matthews
- 29E. Guessand
- 9E. Nketiahon 62'6.5
Newcastle United- 21L. Horníček7.6
- 3L. Hall6.1
- 33D. Burn7.6
- 5F. Schär6.8
- 37A. Dedić7.1
- 7Joelinton6.5
- 6Nico González6.4
- 11H. Barnes7.8
- 28J. Willock6.4
- 23J. Murphy7.7
- 10W. Osula — highest feed rating in the match7.9
- 19A. Elangaon 77'6.6
- 1N. Pope
- 4S. Botman
- 12M. Thiawon 90+5'
- 8A. Bamba
- 14Sean Steuron 85'6.8
- 17B. Touré
- 41J. Ramseyon 77'6.9
- 9Y. Wissaon 77'6.6
AI prediction and analysis
The vote split evenly: 7 each on both teams to score (lost) and on over 2.5 goals (lost). The other 2 chose a bet each: double chance and a Newcastle United win.
- 7 of 16BTTSour betodds 1.51Claude
GrokKimiQwenDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxMistrallost - 7 of 16O 2.5odds 1.64ChatGPTDeepSeek
Gemini
GLMXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultralost - 1 of 16X2odds 1.48
Sonarwon - 1 of 162odds 2.52Nemotron Superwon
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:54 UTC
All three of Crystal Palace's home games this season have brought goals at both ends and over 2.5 goals: the hosts are scoring two a game but shipping 2.7. Newcastle United's away numbers tell a similar story — 1.3 scored and 2.7 conceded in three trips, with both teams scoring in two of them. The market leans the same way, rating goals at both ends at 62%, and near-identical prices on the result (2.65 against 2.52) point to a match without a favourite, one where both sides will have to go forward.
Where we could be wrong
There is a case the other way. Crystal Palace have already failed to score three times this season, Newcastle United kept a clean sheet in one of their three away games, and in the last two meetings one of the two drew a blank. Add the European week for Crystal Palace: after the Europa League the line-up may not be at full strength, and a cautious game in drizzle and a 25 km/h wind could easily be settled by a single goal. We're still backing both teams to score at 1.51.
- Two directions drew the same number of AI models: the bet was taken from the one priced closer to the line.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Crystal Palace| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10 | BeşiktaşEuropa League | A | 2:2 | D |
| 18.10 | Brighton & Hove Albion | A | 0:5xG 0.8–2.0 | L |
| 15.10 | LyonEuropa League | A | 2:3xG 1.6–1.8 | L |
| 11.10 | Nottingham Forest | H | 3:1xG 2.4–3.3 | W |
| 03.10 | Bristol Cityclub friendly | H | 0:2 | L |
| 20.09 | Leeds United | A | 0:0xG 1.1–1.3 | D |
Newcastle United| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Aston Villa | H | 0:1xG 1.1–1.6 | L |
| 12.10 | Coventry City | A | 1:4xG 1.9–1.5 | L |
| 19.09 | Hull City | H | 2:1xG 1.4–1.6 | W |
| 14.09 | Leeds United | A | 1:4 | L |
| 08.09 | MillwallEFL Cup | A | 1:0 | W |
| 05.09 | Bournemouth | H | 2:2xG 0.7–1.4 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | EPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.3 / 2.4 | 1.4 / 2 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.3 / 2.1 | 1.2 / 1.7 | 1.5 |
| shots | 10.1 / 17.9 | 12.3 / 17.4 | 13.8 |
| shots on target | 3.7 / 6.1 | 3.6 / 5.3 | 4.4 |
| corners | 3.1 / 5.7 | 4.6 / 5.3 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 10 / 10.1 | 12.1 / 11.3 | 11.5 |
| yellow cards | 1.3 / 1.6 | 2.7 / 2.1 | 2 |
| matches over 2.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| both scored | 57% | 71% | |
| clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| failed to score | 43% | 14% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 2 / 2.7 | 1.3 / 2.7 | |
| average total | 4.7 | 4 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| both scored | 100% | 67% | |
- Crystal Palace shoot less often than the league average: 10.1 shots vs 13.8
- Newcastle United shoot less often than the league average: 12.3 shots vs 13.8
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Crystal Palace, away games only for Newcastle United
Head to head
2–4–4Crystal Palace wins · draws · Newcastle United wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United | 2:1 | 12.04.26 | |
| Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace | 2:0 | 04.01.26 | |
| Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace | 5:0 | 16.04.25 | |
| Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United | 1:1 | 30.11.24 | |
| Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United | 2:0 | 24.04.24 | |
| Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace | 4:0 | 21.10.23 | |
| Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United | 0:0 | 21.01.23 | |
| Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace | 0:0 | 09.11.22 | EFL Cup |
| Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace | 0:0 | 03.09.22 | |
| Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace | 1:0 | 20.04.22 |
- both scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 7 | 3-0-4 | 11–15 | 9 | LWLWL |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 7 | 2-2-3 | 10–14 | 8 | DLWLL |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 7 | 2-2-3 | 7–11 | 8 | DLWDW |
| 13 | Manchester United | 7 | 1-4-2 | 10–10 | 7 | DLDDD |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 2-1-4 | 9–17 | 7 | WLDWL |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 7 | 1-3-3 | 9–13 | 6 | DDLLW |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10
Goals by minute
- 0-1524
- 16-3002
- 31-4533
- 46-6025
- 61-7510
- 76-9013
- 0-1532
- 16-3000
- 31-4533
- 46-6013
- 61-7531
- 76-9023
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
